Why market is up today? | NIFTY 26,000 | CA Rachana Ranade

"Once we are able to close above this, what is the next big target that we should look out at? Now for those who have done my price action analysis, you will be able to understand this. This is a classic example of a VCP. And what is VCP? Volatility contraction price. So if I were to quickly draw this, this is like or we call this as a complex cup and handle. This is like the cup. This is like the handle and one more smaller handle. So this is called as a complex cup and handle or in price action analysis we will call this as a VCP pattern. Now typically in such cases what happens is that when we see such kind of pattern and when see when we this is the classic textbook pattern and when we see a breakout then ideally whatever is this height whatever is this height this ideally should get replicated as my target so what will be my first target on nifty if I were to replicate this this comes to 26,900."

"What could be the medium target? Medium target could be this height. Correct? And if I were to replicate it again from this Please, I'm again repeating. This is not immediate. Okay, medium-term target 27,800."

"And long-term, I know long-term target can be like whatever, 1 year, 2 year, whatever. Okay? And if I want to replicate this also, this comes to 29,400."

"So, we have to understand that if at the next resistance level if if we are not able to crack it if if the overall uh I mean if if a reversal happens what could be the next important support because if that gets broken whatever is the current trend we will understand what is the current trend that current trend could effectively reverse. Okay. And final question is that 26th of September was it or was it some other day? Uh it was what? Yes. 26 27th September 2024. At that time, market was at an all-time high and so was my portfolio at an all-time high. Okay. My portfolio was showing whatever percentage profit. Okay. Yes. Sham has correct has given the exact date 27th September. Whatever percentage profit I was seeing back on 27th September 2024 is my portfolio showing the same percentage of profit because Nifty has gone down from 26,2300 level to a very low level corrected by almost whatever 16 17% and has come up all the way up. So Nifty is showing the same level almost again. But is the profit in my portfolio showing the same level? Yes or no. So that is that is one important point that we have to address. Before before we actually start with all these key pointers that what could be uh the next resistance, what could be the next support we will start with this that is the profit in your portfolio in your portfolio higher than previous ATTH. I'm just cutting it short. Uh I'm starting the poll. So I will repeat what I intend to ask so that we get a fair enough idea right that whatever was the profit percentage in your account correct when market hit hit all-time high 27th September 2024 are you at a better profit or are you at a lower profit is your port is the profit in your portfolio higher than previous ATTH yes or no that is that is what I I want to understand uh I I do see some yes or nos in the in the comments. Don't don't do that. Put it in in the chat so that everyone will be able to actually see and uh we will get a fair enough idea that uh what what is the overall situation of uh people's portfolios and then we will try and address the next set of questions. Okay, we are almost closing on to 150 votes. Uh with that let me end the poll and almost 158 uh polls 15 oh 61 votes and I'm sure you will be able to see this on your screen right now and uh the exact answer is 70% people are saying no my portfolio is not higher than the previous ATTH 30% people are saying yes okay Minakshi PHC >> I know I know I know they at what level were they and at what level they are right now so so what is to be done in such cases if your portfolio is not at the same peak level as it was what is to be done that is exactly what we going to discuss in today's live stream so of course I'm sure you all will keep watching on uh but we are going to discuss that very important point towards the end of today's live stream okay so first things first let us quickly now go to charts and understand our very first question. What is the next big resistance? Okay, we we will start from absolute basics. What is the next big resistance? Right now, now everyone knows this. This was the previous all-time high. Correct? And what of course I will do from here? I will just draw an alt J. And this comes to 26,277 280. Okay, 26. Please note down today's live stream is extremely important. You will come to know about all the key levels you have to watch out for. So please have a paper, a pen, maybe a mobile to note down. But these levels are absolutely important and uh you will get some sort of guidance on what you have to do when X things happens. Okay, whatever happens. So till we are not closing and not sustaining about 26,280 we still face a major resistance at this level 26,280 maybe round off to 26,300. Okay. So, 26 200 to 26,300. This is our big resistance based on what previous alltime high. Okay. What happened back then? 27th September. We reached this level. There was a big correction. We tried to move up. But from here there started a fresh down move. So like this is also important. This is this high will also be equally important because from here we started a fresh down move. Correct? So what I'm going to do is this high. Okay, alt t this high. Then we saw this as the next swing high. Correct. So I'm just going to extend this. We can see one more swing high and I'm going to join maximum touch points. Okay, for those who have done my course on technical analysis, you would already know this that how do we draw trend lines? We should ideally try and join maximum touch points. We should not cut through candles. Okay, that is a base thumb rule. Okay, so now if you see here that this was one of the previous key swing highs, another key swing high, another swing high, similar point and today what happened? Now I'm zooming in. Today also market went above this but was not able to sustain above this. It gave up its gains and it has settled below this resistance line. Now for tomorrow also this comes to 26,218ish levels. So that is the reason why I'm telling you 26,200 to 26,300. This is the biggest choke zone. If we are able to close up achan now tomorrow as an example if we open above this level 26,300 we open only above that and we are able to sustain Monday also it gives a confirmation. Oho then don't ask. We can see a very nice rally. Okay, fast and furious rally. Now why am I saying that? So I hope every everyone has written this down. You have taken this noting. What is the next key resistance? 26,200 26,300. Right? Once we are able to close above this, what is the next big target that we should look out at? Okay. Now for those who have done my price action analysis, you will be able to understand this. This is a classic example of a VCP. And what is VCP? Volatility contraction price. Okay. So if I were to quickly where is the drawing symbol? One second brush. Sorry. So if we were to quickly draw this, this is like or we call this as a complex cup and handle. Okay, this is like the cup. This is like the handle and one more smaller handle. So this is called as a complex cup and handle or in price action analysis we will call this as a VCP pattern. Okay. Now typically in such cases what happens is that when we see such kind of pattern and when see when we this is the classic textbook pattern and when we see a breakout then ideally whatever is this height okay whatever is this height this ideally should get replicated as my target so what will be my first target on nifty if I were to replicate this this comes to 26,900 okay even if to I only got shocked. Wait, we will skip last last two three candles. Okay, we'll skip last two three C to We always love to be conservative. If we are able to get more, why not? But let's let's keep still 26,800. Oh, if we are able to cross 26,200, 300 we sustain above that next 500 points rally, it's just going to come up like this. Okay, so next target 26,800."

"then which is the biggest support that we should be looking out for which is which would be like an absolute crucial support I'm not talking about interim support and this that okay absolute crucial support now what could that be okay so to understand what is a crucial support we have to first understand what is the current trend because crucial support is a level which if broken the trend also reverses how let's understand this very important point So, which trend are we in right now? Let's check. This was the lowest swing low. Correct. In the recent past, lowest swing low, low, high, higher low, higher high, higher low, higher high, higher low, and higher high. This is where we are right now. So, anyone can tell us, I mean, anyone can tell me we are in a uptrend right now. Okay. When can this trend be broken? If we break this low, if we break this low which is 25,300. Okay. If we break this low then we may say that I mean we will say in that case that the trend has reversed and we have to be absolutely careful there. Okay. Till we go below 26 25,300 we need not worry. I know this is a big gap that we are talking about 900 points. That is where we started this sharp rally. But till we are above this there is no problem. It it will be treated as a buy on dip category. It will not be a sell on rise category. I'm repeating till we don't close below 25,300 we will be in a buy in every dip or buy on every dip category. We will not be in a sell on rise market. Okay. Is this 25,300 level reiterated by any other trend line? It is how I will tell you. See this was the alltime high correct? Now if you were to join some key swing highs. This was a key swing high. This was the second key swing high. Correct. Third third swing high. Correct. Let me just extend this. Correct. If I were to extend this. What do we see? I'm going to now I'm going to just take this line out. Look at this key swing high from where we started this long downward journey. we again hit a similar so basically I've joined the lines right so we saw a resistance here again we saw a resistance again we saw a resistance we saw a breakout we saw a beautiful retest and for those who have been doing my live streams every Thursday we were this is a Thursday where we have done a live stream and I said that there's a case that we are saying look at the live stream your homework 6th of November 2025 it is there on YouTube also 6th of November 2025 and I had said that we are going towards a very crucial level which is around 25,300 and if we are able to sustain then it will be a classic example of breakout retest and if we are able to sustain it could be like a bounce and from that we we have seen a very nice bounce right so now what is extremely important is of course this is a downward sloping right line so it will be in it will not be exactly 25,300 But as we slope downwards, it will slope down towards 25,200. So crucial support level 25,200 to 25,300."

"today Nvidia declared its results. Okay, today or yesterday I guess they declared the results and believe it or not their results are mind-blowing. Okay, what I have done is I've just pasted the relevant screenshot of their results in a presentation so that you get to see all the key numbers. Okay, so um just have a look at this. I'm going to show you the key data point for [clears throat] Nvidia. Okay, see this is an AI related stock and the whole pressure was being seen that US market is may collapse, NASDAQ may see a collapse because of this AI bubble burst and Nvidia was one of the top contender to fall and look at the result. If you see this is Q3 Fi 26 versus Q3 FI25 okay Q3 Y and if you see a revenue revenue is up by 62%. Okay, if you see net income, net income is up by 65%. Even operating income up by 65%. And if you see diluted earning per share, this is up by 67%. Oh, very few people may have may have expected that Nvidia may come up with such big numbers. And you know what Nvidia is is like considered as a proxy for global tech demand. Okay."

"In fact, many of the Indian IT companies be it Infosys, TCS, HCL, HCL Tech, LTI Minry, CO for many of them earn more than 50% of their revenue from the United States. Okay. So I mean I I mean I I don't know the exact number for each and every company that I mentioned. I just gave you examples. A lot of them have more than 50% of the revenue from USA. So if Nvidia still keeps on posting strong numbers, if they keep on giving us the confidence that AI AI is still not like a bubble, of course the Indian IT space may keep on performing better."

"This was a stock again which which had not done well at all in the past but last one month starting 17th of October 17th October to today last one month it has given more than 12 and a half% returns such returns so Reliance Industries increasing by 12% in roughly one month is is a big thing and uh that is that is what I mean when when all these big names uh take take the markets on a higher side uh I mean when when they increase of course they are going to do the heavy weight lifting and they definitely help to increase the overall sentiment in the market right"

"defense remains one of the favorites."

"like in the recent past if you have noticed I have talked about the capital markets theme for so many number of times."

"travel tourism in that we have specifically talked about hotels."

"KC management warned of solar over supply with companies taking low margin orders to lift stock prices. Margin for players like Premier Energies may fall to 10 to 12% in 12 to 18 months. See uh KC uh is is not is not performing. Let me just check whether I have seen for KC only. case last few days it has taken a big beating and there are a lot of news around KC uh and you know uh margins may fall this see whenever there is a lot of noise I generally step back I I go and read more on that and if I feel that okay this is something really to care I mean something really that bothers me then I will take a decision accordingly right uh so KC is not in my portfolio honestly so I have not tracked that news in detail. I just know for a fact that it has it has come down quite a bit but I'm not pretty much sure on exactly what have they warned for. Of course you are mentioning that they have won for solar over supply uh with companies taking low margin orders to lift stock prices but I mean I personally believe that there is there is no solar over supply."

"Your views on current PSU bank rally sustainable? Ideally, yes, it should."

"Defense sector views? Big thumbs up on defense."

"GRM overseas coming out of channel. Good for a complete U-turn. Is GRM overseas? I say is that a company? I've never tracked GRM. GRM Overseas. Everyone you can check out GRM overseas chart and I'm not going to tell you U-turn U-turn is not uh is not the right word Chira very good observation though I want everyone to check GRM over overseas chart and tell me which chart pattern is this I want everyone to tell me which chart pattern is this you can go on a weekly time frame you can go on a monthly time frame whatever it's it's very very clearly visible textbook pattern people answer. You don't have two two devices today. Flag and phone. Wait for daily. Okay. Anupa says rounding bottom. You can check. Okay. Fair enough. All right. Uh so instead you you should not say U-turn. Okay. Uh rounding rounding bottom is is the correct uh terminology for that. Okay."

"Railway stocks can be average than 30% down. Holding Icon, IRB, Infra. If you feel whichever stocks are fundamentally strong you can see if you see some reversal you should you should consider averaging uh because as I see I'm not talking only about railway stocks any fundamentally strong stock if you see that there is a reversal you can see that okay there is a time they have they have not performed well they are consolidating there is a breakout definitely you may consider uh you know averaging such stocks"

"Uh, fed rate cut ideally should happen and its effect on gold charts. Uh, see I personally believe with fed rate cuts it'll have a better impact on equity rather than gold. Okay, of course gold will have its own impact but I I personally as an investor link Fed rate cuts with equity markets primarily. If that happens it can have a good positive impact on our market."

"Do we need to consider RSI in a weekly time frame before we buy any stock? If it is, I mean you can consider it as one of the parameters. Uh, if it is like crazy at 90ish levels, then avoid buying such stocks. Uh, if it's above 60, it's if it's in the 60 60 65 zone, then that's a good thumbs up."

"Is the rally over for auto stocks? Let me check nifty auto. Of course, I can uh show you the chart for index levels. [cough] Let me go on a weekly chart. Alt R. Let me share my screen also. Uh, this is the CNX auto chart and uh, I won't say that the rally has gone. In fact, it's it's at a very key level. If you can see this was the previous all-time high. It touched this came down and it is at a make or break level right now. So in fact it will be really interesting to watch out this space. Okay. I will definitely not say that the rally has gone"

"If you're not able to sleep well, you have a very high concentration. Reduce the concentration in that stock. uh for example I I also have one or two stocks which are pretty much concentrated in my portfolio but I can still sleep extremely well okay so that depends for me let us say it could be I'm giving you an example okay for me it could be like 10% in in as as a single stock in my portfolio example not real okay uh but for some people it could be like oh my god 5% even one stock I can't sleep well 3% one single stock in my portfolio So I can't sleep well. So anything which is bothering your sleep please reduce the concentration."

"Gold and silver rally finished. Ah, interesting question. Huh? Um, see always remember that whenever equity starts performing well, people tend to ignore gold and silver comparatively. So, like I told you, right? Uh, I feel that if this 26, 200, 300 is taken out, next 500, 600 points rally can happen in no time and very few people are going to talk about gold and silver. Uh, majority focus will remain on equity. Okay? So uh overall gold and silver definitely still should be a part of your portfolio but people will shift their focus from silver gold to equity is what what I believe okay"

"Now, we have our budget on the 1st of February if Nirmala madam says that we are going to have a big allocation on railway And you know what will happen with railway stocks right? Uh, so uh it is it is extremely important that we we know what stocks we have in our portfolio. We we understand their fundamentals. Uh if railway stocks whatever railway stocks are there in your portfolio and if you believe that they are not fundamentally bad. It's just that uh the overall sentiment in railway stocks is not high right now. It needs a sentimental push. It needs good good set of numbers to be reported. uh that is that is when we can see some rally again maybe that that's when we can see railways running at better speed. So it's it's important to understand what is the overall uh sentiment also and next sentiment booster February can be a big sentiment booster right let's see"

"Holding Bir lanu biranu since four years but haven't seen good numbers lately should I exit and invest somewhere better? A I always believe that uh maybe just one one bad quarter you should not sell off right away. If you have three four backto-back bad quarters then in such cases yes you can consider selling off and putting it up in a better stock. Okay. So just remember one bad quarter does not qualify for selling off your stocks."

"For those who have been our pro-investor members since 2020, Eratel was a stock of the month in 2020... and it's still it's still going pretty much super strong. Uh, again see uh of course not a recommendation anywhere but all these are fundamentally strong stocks. Uh Aerel is one of those who moves quietly uh will not make a big roar or anything like that but it'll it'll be like a slow and steady wins the race category. Huh. Right. So I mean if you have if you have been following me of course you know that AEL has been one of my favorites since a long time right."