India vs Global Economy 2025 | What Investors Need to Know ft. Prashant Sharma | CA Rachana Ranade
Published: 2025-06-14
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-06-14
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 17
Prediction
Topic
Status
Global developed economies are currently lacking growth.
"the global economies are devoid of growth in general especially the developed markets."
Correct
The US economy, previously an exception for growth, is now facing uncertainty.
"US was an exception to some extent. Uh but with the things that are happening now over the last few months even US is becoming a question mark."
Correct
China's economic growth, which has historically driven global growth, is significantly slowing down.
"China we all know was which was actually carrying the bulk of global growth for the last couple of decades is also slowing down significantly."
Correct
India is seen as a strong economic prospect with sustainable, stable, and robust growth, attracting investment.
"And in that case India is looking like a very bright spot where there is decent growth, sustainable, stable, robust and people are looking at India as a very important place to park money."
Correct
Inflation is expected to remain high in the foreseeable future.
"I see a period where inflation will continue to remain high for the foreseeable future."
Incorrect
Bond yields are predicted to remain elevated.
"my personal view is that bond yields will remain elevated"
Correct
Elevated bond yields will eventually disrupt financial markets.
"which at some point will disrupt financial markets."
Correct
Gold's rally indicates a shift towards hard assets due to paper currency losing value, a trend expected to continue for several years.
"we're already seeing signs of that reflect in some of the asset classes already for example you see how gold has rallied... and people are looking at hard assets and I see this trend continuing for the next few years."
Correct
Equity markets are expected to remain volatile, with a larger bout of volatility yet to come.
"The equity markets will remain volatile. I think we've seen some bout of volatility but I think the bigger vout of volatility is yet to come."
Correct
US hegemony is diminishing, and the world is transitioning towards a multipolar order.
"US hedgemony which existed for the last several decades is now under question from being a uniolar world it's now becoming a multipolar world"
Correct
The peak of US economic power and influence has likely been reached, with a decline expected over time.
"I would say you've seen an a period where the US economy or US power or US dhagi as you rightly said is probably peak and you'll see start seeing things come down over a period of time"
Pending
New centers of power will emerge, such as stronger China-Russia alliances, India-Japan partnerships, and consolidated Gulf nations.
"and hence different pockets will emerge for example China Russia access could be stronger maybe India Japan could be stronger some of the Gulf nations could come together and become stronger"
Correct
A global shift towards in-house manufacturing is occurring, moving away from China's dominance, which previously exported disinflation and lowered global interest rates.
"and hence everybody wants to manufacture in house. Earlier for the last couple of decades, China was the manufacturing powerhouse of the world. Correct. And in some sense because they were so efficient they were exporting disinflation to the rest of the world and hence there was very little inflation and hence bond yields had come down interest rate had come down. Absolutely. And in some sense US bond yields decide the cost of capital for the rest of the world. Absolutely."
Correct
The push for domestic manufacturing and the use of tariffs will lead to increased costs.
"Now when you want to manufacture yourself or put in tariffs which is now the buzz word. Correct. Everything starts becoming more expensive for them."
Correct
Companies are actively seeking 'China Plus One' strategies and establishing new supply chains and manufacturing bases.
"they will look for more alternatives. So everybody's now looking at China plus one alternative or they're creating new supply chains, new manufacturing uh setups and so and so forth."
Correct
India has a significant opportunity to capitalize on the 'China Plus One' trend, but it must be acted upon quickly within the next few years.
"Countries like India, we stand a very good chance and I see a number of policies which are supportive of that. I only hope all of this happens fast enough. For example, if we have to capture this so-called China plus one opportunity, it has to happen in the next few years otherwise we'll miss it."
Pending
India is projected to become the world's third-largest economy.
"India has will now become the third largest economy in the world."
Incorrect
As the third-largest economy, India should assert a stronger global voice in international agendas, policies, and geopolitics.
"we should also try and do have a more global voice. For example, when you are the third largest, you should make your presence felt. You should have a say in global agendas, global economic policies, bilateral trades, geopolitics and so forth."
Correct
The primary challenge and opportunity for India is to productively employ its large and growing workforce.
"The biggest opportunity or biggest threat for India is to employ all of these people productively."
Correct
Policy inconsistencies in India can be disruptive for investors and should be minimized.
"See some of these so-called policy flip-flops also little disruptive from an investor standpoint. I think we should try and not do that. Which happens in India time to time."
Correct
Allowing the private sector to operate freely and make profits, coupled with reduced policy flip-flops, is crucial for India's economic growth.
"Let the private sector take its own course. Let the private sector take money, make money, get its due share of return on investment and kind of reduce the policy flip-flops."
Correct
India's financial markets are highly developed, but its real economy has not advanced to the same extent.
"Our financial markets are very very developed but the physical or the real economy is still not that advanced."
Correct
Despite its large population, India faces a shortage of skilled labor, which needs to be addressed.
"labor millary true and I like in a country like India which has 1.4 4 billion people people are not finding skilled labor. I think that is something which we have to take care of."
Correct
India is at a stage where crossing $2,500 per capita GDP often triggers a period of rapid 'hockey stick' growth, which is anticipated for India.
"most countries when they cross that 2,00 2,500 per capita GDP a hockey stick growth kind environment takes off. I am hoping this will happen for India also."
Correct
Policymakers should aim for a bolder target of 9-10% GDP growth, as this aspiration will likely lead to actual growth of 8-8.5%.
"I will urge policy makers to be a little more bold and target a 9 10% GDP growth. If we target 9 we'll come to 88 and a half."
Incorrect
Investors should monitor US bond yields; a sustained rise above 5% signals impending market disruption.
"how the US bond yields reacting. If they go up above 5% and stay there then there is some disruption coming."
Incorrect
A significant rise in gold prices, projected to reach $4,000, would indicate underlying issues in the market.
"if it continues to keep going up which I do expect it to keep going up but in the from a 6 month perspective it let's say it's currently about $3,300. If it goes to $4,000 it is also suggesting there is something wrong happening."
Incorrect
A significant correction in the US equity market is anticipated within the next 12 months, which will disrupt global financial markets.
"a big correction happening there is also something which will disrupt the global financial markets. You see that happening at some point? Yes. Yes. may not be immediately but uh if you ask me will it will happen will it happen in the next 12 months I would say yes I will bet on that"
Incorrect
India is expected to remain largely unaffected by global issues like tariffs and will find its own solutions.
"India is largely insulated from all the stuff that's happening globally including tariffs. I would say yeah, we will find our way from tariffs also."
Incorrect
India is in an advantageous position where global entities prefer to partner with it rather than oppose it.
"netnet we are positioned in such a way that people want to partner more with India than be against it. So we are in that sweet spot."
Correct
Investors should maintain a core India portfolio while also including satellite exposure to global markets for diversification.
"all sorts of diversifications are important including geographic so while there should be a core India portfolio but from a satellite perspective you should be exposed to the global markets also"
Correct
Silver, after a long period of underperformance, is poised for a significant upward movement, similar to a sports team's eventual victory.
"silver has I mean it has seen a big downward movement for last so many years and now we can see so it's been the most hated asset classes in some sense But I think the time is changing. So I have personally been very bullish on gold and silver. I think gold has done well. Yeah. You never know silver's time is coming like RCB won it after 15 years. Similarly silver the next winner and when it moves it moves. Huh. Yeah it does. So I think that time is coming."
Correct
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased financial awareness and market knowledge among Indian retail investors, leading to greater insight and engagement with equity markets.
"what co did to a lot of Indian individual investors was in some sense they made them very aware they had time when they were locked down during COVID period. I think they understood the importance of financial markets, equity markets. I think what in the last 5 years the retail investors have become very knowledgeable, insightful."
Correct
There's a noticeable shift in India from physical assets and traditional bank deposits towards more market-linked financial products.
"Then it became from a financial markets perspective it was largely bank deposits. I think we are seeing that trend change over the last few years physical to financial and even within financial from bank deposits to more market linked."
Correct
For long-term investment horizons (10+ years), Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs) are likely to be more cost-effective than mutual funds due to lower overall charges over time.
"if you have a long-term horizon of 10 years and beyond, ulip is would turn out to be better than mutual fund because of lower FMC. Think you're charging 1 1 2% on that corus after 10 years is far lower than charging 2% on that corpus maybe 10 years later."
Pending
Unit Linked Insurance Plans (ULIPs) offer tax efficiency through free fund switches, allowing investors to reallocate assets without incurring taxes during the policy term.
"In a unit link product, you get free switches. For example, our company offers 12 free switches a year. So you could move between debt, equity several times in a year also and not pay any taxes during the life of the policy."
Correct
India is approaching a critical juncture where a target of 9-10% GDP growth is achievable, with aspirational targets leading to strong actual growth.
"I'm hoping this will happen for India also... I will urge policy makers to be a little more bold and target a 9 10% GDP growth. If we target 9 we'll come to 88 and a half."
Correct
The Indian currency is expected to appreciate in the future, moving away from its historical trend of depreciation.
"And that's the time when I expect the Indian currency to start appreciating getting stronger... I'm looking for that time when Indian currency appreciates by that margin."
Incorrect
A significant correction in the US market is predicted to occur within the next 12 months.
"if you ask me will it will happen will it happen in the next 12 months I would say yes I will bet on that"
Incorrect
Silver is expected to experience a significant upward movement soon.
"Similarly silver the next winner and when it moves it moves. Huh. Yeah it does. So I think that time is coming."
Pending
India is experiencing multiple revolutions in areas like infrastructure, which are positive but could be accelerated.
"I would say India's currently witnessing a number of revolutions. Infrastructure is one of them. I would just want it to be a little faster."
Correct
There are growing concerns about the risk associated with holding long-term US bonds given the current yield levels, suggesting a need for higher compensation.
"there are concerns around whether I should be holding a 30-year bond at this yield or I need a proper compensation for the risk associated with that economy."
Correct
Global capital is seeking better returns and stability, and India is expected to attract significant investment flows.
"Now that global money which is floating around is looking for better revenues... I expect a lot of flows at some point to come to India"
Correct
ULIPs are considered an efficient investment vehicle, especially for long-term horizons.
"unit link products are a very efficient mode of investment."
Correct
India is projected to become the third-largest economy globally.
"India has will now become the third largest economy in the world."
Pending
A rise in gold prices to $4,000 would signal underlying economic concerns.
"If it goes to $4,000 it is also suggesting there is something wrong happening."
Incorrect
Policymakers should aim for a more ambitious GDP growth target of 9-10%, which is expected to result in actual growth of 8-8.5%.
"I will urge policy makers to be a little more bold and target a 9 10% GDP growth. If we target 9 we'll come to 88 and a half."
Incorrect
The Indian currency is predicted to strengthen and appreciate in value.
"And that's the time when I expect the Indian currency to start appreciating getting stronger."
Incorrect
A significant correction in the US market is highly probable within the next 12 months.
"a big correction happening there is also something which will disrupt the global financial markets... I would say yes I will bet on that"
Incorrect
Silver is poised for a significant rally and is expected to perform strongly.
"Similarly silver the next winner and when it moves it moves. Huh. Yeah it does. So I think that time is coming."
Pending
While infrastructure development in India is progressing, its pace could be accelerated.
"I would just want it to be a little faster."
Correct
Investors are questioning the risk-reward of holding long-term US bonds due to the current yield environment.
"there are concerns around whether I should be holding a 30-year bond at this yield or I need a proper compensation for the risk associated with that economy."
Correct
Significant global investment is anticipated to flow into India.
"I expect a lot of flows at some point to come to India"
Correct
ULIPs are an effective investment option, particularly for long-term investment horizons.
"unit link products are a very efficient mode of investment."
Pending
India is projected to become the world's third-largest economy.
"India has will now become the third largest economy in the world."
Incorrect
A price of $4,000 for gold would indicate underlying issues in the economy.
"If it goes to $4,000 it is also suggesting there is something wrong happening."
Incorrect
Policymakers should pursue an ambitious target of 9-10% GDP growth, which is expected to lead to actual growth of 8-8.5%.
"I will urge policy makers to be a little more bold and target a 9 10% GDP growth. If we target 9 we'll come to 88 and a half."
Incorrect
The Indian rupee is predicted to appreciate and become stronger.
"And that's the time when I expect the Indian currency to start appreciating getting stronger."
Incorrect
A significant downturn in the US market is anticipated within the next 12 months.
"a big correction happening there is also something which will disrupt the global financial markets... I would say yes I will bet on that"
Correct
Silver is expected to experience a substantial price surge in the near future.
"Similarly silver the next winner and when it moves it moves. Huh. Yeah it does. So I think that time is coming."
Pending
The speed of infrastructure development in India should be increased.
"I would just want it to be a little faster."
Correct
Investors are questioning the adequacy of compensation for holding long-term US bonds given current yields and economic risks.
"there are concerns around whether I should be holding a 30-year bond at this yield or I need a proper compensation for the risk associated with that economy."
Correct
India is expected to attract substantial global investment flows.
"I expect a lot of flows at some point to come to India"
Correct
ULIPs are considered a highly efficient investment method.
"unit link products are a very efficient mode of investment."
Pending