NIFTY in the Danger Zone? | US Downgrade + Moody Moves Explained | CA Rachana Ranade

"India has gotten a credit rating upgrade. Everyone pay attention. India has gotten a credit rating upgrade. Morning Star DBRS that's again one of the credit rating agencies. They have upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to BBDB from BBB low. And now India has become an investment grade company."

"A sale of 20-year US government bonds saw weak demand on witness day that is yesterday pushing the treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed."

"India's I think it was around 80% if I'm not mistaken. We can quickly check if you want. I I'll also show you something new. Uh I'm not sure if I have shared this. I think 80 or 90 maybe 80%. Wait. Trading economics is where you have to go. Okay. Go to trading economics. Now just go down and you can see India. You should be able to see here. H government debt to GDP yes it is 81.295%."

"Japan's government debt to GDP is at 236%. Oh my god. And it had reached 258%."

"See overall our valuations have now normalized quite a bit. If I were to quickly show on screener also uh I'll just share my screen and I think I've already taught how to check this but still one more time. Um so let's say we're talking about nifty here nifty50 and let's go to P ratio and let's check last 3 years median P. Last 3 years median P is 21.9 and we are currently at 22.2. That's like nothing. We we are not extremely priced right now. Even if I were to check a 5year median P, 5 year median P is at 22.6. We are at 22.2 right now."

"If yields increase, typically the currency of that country becomes stronger. You want to mark this down. Yields of a country, bond yields of a country. So, US 10year bonds, US 20-year bonds, US 30-year bonds, if their yields increase, their currency becomes stronger. And if US currency becomes stronger, INR will become weaker."

"See, I feel that defense is a theme which one should think about from an entire decadal perspective rather than one quarter, two quarters. I have said this many times. I'm repeating this one more time. Whenever markets are in a bearish sentiment, everyone is going to look at PE PB and is going to cry about it high valuation and this once market is in a bullish momentum no one is going to even look back at the valuations. So once currently market has just started going in the bullish territory in the bullish momentum if it continues no one is going to look at the valuations."

"power and power finance sector. Uh I I mean again if if I'm talking about a 3 to 5 year perspective, no questions. Absolutely bullish on that."

"So now what I'm saying now the theme is that sell America maybe they are not believing so much in the American economy because of the piling up of debt because of their debt to GDP ratio going to crazy levels. The demand has weakened to fulfill the demand. They are increasing their offer rate. So basically yields on bonds are increasing. It is not a good sign for USA. And in such a case if investors feel investors as in countries let's say China, Japan they are parking their money in USA they may say instead of parking in USA I may think about parking a bit in Europe. Of course USA is way bigger as compared to European market overall but still they may consider reshuffling their portfolio to some other developed country."

"And when I'm saying by India, by India means basically because our credit rating has increased, there is a chance that whenever foreign funds want to invest in emerging markets, money may flow from other emerging markets to Indian markets."

"A sale of 20-year US government bonds saw weak demand on witness day that is yesterday pushing the treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed. Yields claim is basically interest rates or simple words. I know yields is not equal to uh interest for a layman. You can just imagine something like interest. Okay, yields increase. Treasury department sold $16 billion of newly issued 20-year bond at 1 la. Okay, but now what happened is that the auction saw investors accept a yield of 5.04% on the 20-year note compared with past six auctions of average of 4.61. 613%."

"So overall whenever you have good structural reforms, you have infrastructure development, uh you have overall a proper strategy where you can attract foreign investors, all in all good economic growth. What happens is that a country's credit rating increases and that be so in that case typically what would happen is that now India will be in a position to actually get loans if we need. Of course, we can need them. If India needs loans, we can get it at a lower rate of interest."

"So our debt to GDP is slowly decreasing. See simple if our GDP keeps on increasing if debt is even maintained at a similar level still our debt to GDP ratio is going to come down 80 if brought down further is a good thing but it's still not bad of course not that bad"

"trend is your friend okay if you have done my technical analysis course I I've mentioned this in my course trend is your friend don't go against the trend right now if you can see that there's a clear trend of a higher high and higher low why do you want to sell off quite a bit right so it's better that you stay with the trend if you see the trend being changed then you can definitely take your call"

"USA markets have outperformed Indian markets over the last 1, three and five years if I'm not mistaken to whatever I remember. Uh not by a huge margin but yeah kind of yes by on an average 2 to 3%."

"Uh the only thing is that if you were to diversify yes India is a place uh because US is already a developed economy right? India is still a developing economy and our target is to be a developed economy by 2047. for that if our companies perform really well there are chances that we may you know step up the overall earnings and profitability and maybe you can you know mint more money in Indian markets that's a possibility but I I won't I won't uh you know suggest I'm not sure whether that's right that's right the right word or not but if you are already based out of Canada and you are having 80% in USA I don't think it's a wise decision to pull out everything from US market and put entirely in Indian market but yes definitely a chunk to kickstart maybe a 10% allocation or 15% allocation in India does make sense"

"gold prices will not have a huge impact of yields I don't think so to some extent yes but not a big impact per se"

"I know Reliance Campa is putting up u a big competition for VBL but overall the expansion that they are doing in Africa is crazy. Uh if you're already holding it, I would definitely suggest that you should keep on reading their quarterly reports. The moment you see that okay their overall margins are decreasing or if uh you know the overall uh profitability is dropping in that case it'll be good if you remain cautious on that stock."

"See, I feel that defense is a theme which one should think about from an entire decadal perspective rather than one quarter, two quarters."

"power and power finance sector. Uh I I mean again if if I'm talking about a 3 to 5 year perspective, no questions. Absolutely bullish on that."

"Will Tata Motors reach 800 in May me? Will Tata Motors reach 800 in May expire? 800 but not not sure this May or next May"

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"Chances of sector growth in next 5 years."

"A small video on how to control the fear mindset in an investor during negative market if possible. H how to control fear mindset in negative markets."

"Moody's has downgraded America previous rating was a AAA signified as capital A and two small AAA credit rating say they have cut it one notch to A1. So basically they have lowered the credit rating of USA."

"A sale of 20-year US government bonds saw weak demand on witness day that is yesterday pushing the treasuries to new lows for the year as yields climbed. Yields claim is basically interest rates or simple words. I know yields is not equal to interest for a layman. You can just imagine something like interest. Okay, yields increase."

"The Treasury department sold $16 billion of newly issued 20-year bond at 1 la. Okay, but now what happened is that the auction saw investors accept a yield of 5.04% on the 20-year note compared with past six auctions of average of 4.61. 613%."

"If yields increase in the USA is it going to be a good sign for Indian stock market or a bad sign for Indian stock market? ... Okay, I got the first answer. Ranjit G says bad. Prasad says bad. Shivan Shu says bad. Rich says bad for India."

"Please understand that it's not only Moody which has downgraded. Please understand this is again a very interesting story. S&P had downgraded America years ago. I think in the previous decade somewhere between I think 2012 13 whatever some somewhere around that that was a time almost more than 10 years ago S&P has already downgraded USA Fitch downgraded downgraded it I think 2 three years ago and this time finally Moody which is the last of the three major credit rating agencies so this is again for everyone three major credit rating agencies Moody Fitch S&P S&P had already downgraded USA which already downgraded Now Moody's has also downgraded this."

"India has gotten a credit rating upgrade. Everyone pay attention. India has gotten a credit rating upgrade. Morning Star DBRS that's again one of the credit rating agencies. They have upgraded India's sovereign credit rating to BBDB from BBB low. And now India has become an investment grade company."

"India's I think it was around 80% if I'm not mistaken. ... Trading economics is where you have to go. Okay. Go to trading economics. Now just go down and you can see India. You should be able to see here. H government debt to GDP yes it is 81.295%. It had gone up to 89% debt to GDP to 84% 82% 81% 81%"

"Japan's government debt to GDP is at 236%. Oh my god. And it had reached 258%."

"Last 3 years median P is 21.9 and we are currently at 22.2. That's like nothing. We we are not extremely priced right now. Even if I were to check a 5year median P, 5 year median P is at 22.6. We are at 22.2 right now."

"If yields increase, typically the currency of that country becomes stronger. You want to mark this down. Yields of a country, bond yields of a country. So, US 10year bonds, US 20-year bonds, US 30-year bonds, if their yields increase, their currency becomes stronger. And if US currency becomes stronger, INR will become weaker."

"See, I feel that defense is a theme which one should think about from an entire decadal perspective rather than one quarter, two quarters."

"power and power finance sector. Uh I I mean again if if I'm talking about a 3 to 5 year perspective, no questions. Absolutely bullish on that."

"A small video on how to control the fear mindset in an investor during negative market if possible."