Trump Tariff Trouble: Indian Stocks & Sectors to Watch | CA Rachana Ranade

"So today whatever tariffs were applied, tariffs were not applied only to India. Tariffs were applied to 180 countries today."

"So, first let's focus. Okay. Very, very important points coming up. Okay. First and foremost, today whatever tariffs were applied, tariffs were not applied only to India. Tariffs were applied to 180 countries today."

"So what has he said that any product which is coming from India to the United States we are going to charge 26%."

"He said existing tariff whatever is there for auto parts which is 25%. Steel 25%, aluminium 25% tariffs."

"pharmaceuticals has has been exempted totally exempted. Semiconductors has been exempted. Energy products has been exempted. Energy products you can think of oil, coal, gas, all these are exempted and copper also exempted."

"India will be charged a baseline tariff of 10% starting 5th April. So from 5th April to 8th April, I'm repeating from 5th April to 8th April, he'll charge 10% on all other products."

"And from 9th April we'll take it to 27%. You check you check the news you check different website that is exactly what you'll be able to see 27% tariff."

"I feel that we have more or less factored in this point that okay 25% was what was expected and 26% was what was the outcome 26% 27% whatever so now what will happen is that whatever bad thing had to come whatever bad We were expecting whatever bad we were scared of, we already know about it."

"I personally feel that from here we should not face higher tariffs. In fact what could happen is that if you have seen my live stream on 1st of April I told you that already we were into bilateral trade agreement talks with USA the 3-day meeting which happened in New Delhi it got extended by one more day and it was a good meeting is what was written on various news articles."

"I personally believe that these will not be enhanced whatever happens it may get reduced so the moment such news come like Trump says we are rolling back tariffs on let us say 1 2 3 sectors or he says we we went into trade agreements or we went into discussions and we have decided to reduce the tariff rate of XY Z sector by this much these news could come up But I really doubt if news of enhancing tariffs will come up."

"So what I feel is that after negotiations in fact we may get to see some news where the tariffs are maybe lowered a little bit."

"The cost of production of the US car manufacturer has increased and that is why he's now forced to sell the car at a higher price. Will that lead to inflation in America also?"

"What is stagflation? Inflation? Why inflation? I hope you have understood. I've told that in absolute slow pace. Okay, I taught you why inflation could trigger in USA. They are going to face the heat also. So number one as I mentioned inflation will rise and number two like Pushkar is absolutely giving the correct answer. New cars may not get sold and that is the reason why their economy could stagnate. So inflation plus stagnation combined word is called as stagflation."

"What Trump says is that understand now one last point. I was I was about to give the answer and I got this. Was Trump not aware about this? Definitely he would have some people telling him what would happen because of tariffs. Absolutely. Very, very correct."

"His plan is that when he collects tariffs from different countries in the world, the tariff income, who earns this tariff, it's the government. The government assume this much is the tariff income right now. Now, this much tariff will be collected with increased tariffs. Now, he says that I'm going to use majority of this money or whatever money out of this whatever money he wants to use, he'll use it to subsidize products which are made in America."

"So, it's going to pass this benefit to the to the companies who are making in America. So that let's say a product which is being manufactured at 120 our original example American car manufacturer who was manufacturing at 120 would now be able to manufacture at let's say 110 only. So ultimately the long-term plan is that replace a manufacturer from India who was able to sell at 110 with a manufacturer who is able to manufacture at 110 in USA."

"To be honest on paper, it's a very good plan. Executing that is not easy. The biggest thing is that setting up factories in America. Okay, these guys have enough enough money. Nilles is saying Tatya is smart. Okay. Uh, okay. Tatya is like uncle in Marathi and Trump is very much famous in Maharashtra as Trump. Trump uncle or Trump Tatya. Okay. uh so good thought process but please understand see I had been to USA in 22 23 whatever and I've seen this anyone who is in the USA uh anyone who is in the USA right now uh and who is not staying in you know cities like New York or whatever toasa outskirts maybe what I could see is that native people from USA I'm not talking about Indians working there or something like that. Native people from USA, are they willing to do blue collar jobs? Are they okay being a worker in a factory? How many people, how many native people from America are are okay doing these jobs?"

"I got to know that it's it's very difficult to find labor in America. So if that be so making in USA on paper is good but actually executing that is going to be very very difficult. Okay. So even though the idea is good actual execution can be a big question mark and please understand first setting up a factory there getting laborers making it happen it it is going to take so many years for that he has to have those many people working there it's it's not easy."

"Many of them were like why did America initially lower their tariffs because they they did this analysis that if we were to manufacture a product in America at this cost we will be able to buy it from China or from India at this cost why not buy it from them we will focus on it and la whatever But some products which we are okay if manufacturing in USA is at this cost why not buy it from them at cheaper cost be India beat China beat whatever other countries and that is the reason why tariffs were lowered initially is what I I saw in many interviews today and now he's trying to reverse that so it's not going to be that easy for for for USA."

"Will tariffs be applicable on IT sector? Yes or no? Will tariff be applicable on IT services export? Yes or no? IT service exports Will tariffs be applicable on IT services export? Yes or no? Getting mixed answers. All right. And the correct answer is for IT service exports. No tariffs. No tariffs. Tariffs are for sale of goods, not for sale of services."

"But then why is it correcting? What's the reason? Why is it correcting? Now understand the long shot for it. Okay, last 2 minutes again. Assume that I am an IT service provider. I supply or I give software services and other IT services to an automo company in USA."

"Now, what happened? What did we discuss in the last 30 40 minutes? Whatever. Now automo companies are fearing that because our raw material cost will shoot up. We'll have to sell cars at a higher price. Because we'll have to sell cars at a higher price. There is a possibility that consumers may not buy it. And because of this our sales could go down. If our sale goes down la you know I I've seen so many answers correct in the comment section. This is a fear of recession. Now if recession hits in the USA they may not give more and more contracts to it."

"So basically correct correct so it is as good as may not be stopping outsourcing per se. It's it's difficult but they may delay the projects or they may cut down on the spending. Okay. Whatever they feel this is a non-essential thing let's cut down let's wait they'll hesitate to you know renew right away dips is saying persistent took big hit absolutely right uh so the moment you see that there are recessionary fears uh first sector to go down for India could be it"

"Now think logically of one or two sectors I'm not going to give you the answer let me see if you can give me an answer one or two sectors which has zero connection with USA those could be definitely added to your watch list at least you should track these sectors Indian sectors which have zero connection with USA"

"Banks absolutely banks is banks and financial services is one sector uh uh how are they going to supply to USA? Okay. So of course again if you take a long shot then okay IT companies anyways their m their top line is going to go down. They may want to borrow less and that is why the overall you know impact on the banking sector will be there somehow or the other. So yes one point could be banking."

"Second one is power. Why not? I have done three stocks. I've discussed three stocks, summer special stocks. I'm not sure how many of you watch those videos. Uh, Puja, I'm sure you are there in uh the live stream. If you could uh just paste the link of all those three stocks. Uh I have discussed about NTPC, I have discussed about Blue Star, I've discussed about Vun Beverages."

"None of them is linked to the US economy. It is going to be crazy summer in India. In India, the summer is really hot. the power demand is going to rise. If the power demand rises, then this power companies could get benefited."

"AC companies could get benefited. Sorry. Uh AC I said AC and I sneezed. Sorry. And the third one is companies with cold drinks. Something like warm beverages they could get benefited."

"So has got nothing to do with American recession. Okay. Pharma again of course 0% tariff but what if they charge if they take it out from the 0% list and put it into let's say 2% 5% whatever okay so I think the no-brainers I had two no-brainers in mind one was banks and BFC's which someone said"

"and second no-brainer is one that I said power related stuff which is related to summer that has got nothing to do with what happens in the USA okay"

"Could USA go in recession? And those fears could lead the next moves downwards."

"But now I feel that for India it's more about the upcoming quarterly results which are expected from this very month. Uh how our numbers come up is going to be really interesting because that is going to guide our upward journey."

"Now uh so if numbers come up good in India, we can see the markets going up. If our numbers are also bad and if recession fears trigger, we could test a little bit of lower levels."

"Immediate support levels 22800 I don't think they should be broken. Something terrible comes up we have few more levels downwards but as of now I feel we have digested at least this tariff wall of fear that has been digested."