Nifty @ 23,000 Soon ? | CA Rachana Ranade

"I'm confident it will reach $130,000 by 2025."

"President Donald Trump again announced a one month delay in tariffs especially for Mexico and Canada again oh my God I mean it's it's crazy right first he said that I'm going to I'm going to have tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting April then he said no you nothing doing not in April I I'll preone it I I'll start it in the month of March itself Market didn't like it so first of all the the imposition of tariff itself was not liked by the market that is why Markets started behaving in a negative way followed by which when he said that now I'm going to preone the tariffs again it was taken in a negative way markets again started to react negatively today sir is saying that uh no I think I should postpone it by one month"

"always remember whenever crude oil is low whenever crude oil is decreasing it's always a good sign for our economy per se it is good sign uh for few Industries as well something like paints for which crude is one of the key raw materials uh it is good for uh something like Aviation so paints Aviation Bo so uh something like any stocks I will not name the stocks but any paint related stocks is going to be good if the crude oil prices come down because crude is an important raw material for them for Aviation stocks again it's going to be a good point for tire making companies again it'll be a good point it'll be a good point for oil marketing companies so all in all whenever crude oil comes down it's good for a lot of Industries as well Plus for the overall market crude oil whenever it stays at a lower level it is cheered by the market that is down"

"us two-year bond yields they have also come off quite a bit"

"monthly car sales data if you just check out the domain domestic Trend uh on a year-on-year basis I'm not talking about the total sales because total sales will include domestic Sales Plus exports I was interested a little bit more in domestic sales because that shows how much is the indigenous demand within the country demand because that talks about the overall economy related strength right and that showed just 3% year on year growth barely 3% year on year growth didn't like it uh if you're talking about a month on month if if I were to compare January 25 with uh oh sorry if I were to compare February 25 with January 25 uh that's in fact minus 5% it's a degrowth of 5% so again I'm talking about domestic sale only I'm not talking about domestic plus supports"

"Tesla news and Tesla is coming up in India uh they have signed a lease deal to open their first showroom in Mumbai and uh so this is going to create some havoc in the auto space uh competition will be steep Tesla's entry will definitely lead to some sort of jitters in uh the overall Auto space uh no second thoughts on that we'll have to see how uh the stocks react to it"

"dollar Index comparatively at recent lows again taken positively by the market"

"FI have lowered their selling they have not stopped selling today also they have sold I'll quickly share my screen show you the FI selling data as well uh so let me just quickly share my screen that's where you will see it uh this is the month of of March and you can see march to date 4,700 crores sold by FI day one of March then 3,400 crores everything is in rupes gr then 2,900 roughly and today 2,300 roughly what interesting data point that I could see today"

"now what can you see one 2 3 I know it is not a morning star textbook Morning Star it's not like that structurally similar I know this should be a dogee no second thoughts on that this should be a little bit bigger red candle but see basically what has happened is that this one says that the Big Green candle engulfed or overtook the previous candle as well I mean this it anyways closed above that way above that even is it closed way above that now what was the next hdle actually now just look at today's candle only today's candle what a nice Hammer Hammer candles at the at after a long fall is this a long fall yes I remember this is almost what 78% fall let us just check one more time um yes 7.74% fall almost 8% fall after an 8% fall if you see such a nice Hammer which was formed today"

"second point is that we could see a small Gap but yes a gap so I'll just uh draw a line here so that we understand where the Gap was okay and have we substantially closed Above This Gap answer is yes definitely a good sign so two things have happened number one I two three things first point so we are just analyzing what happened today number one nice Hammer what does this mean sellers tried to take it down down down down went till this point after we started we started seeing a recovery and it closed way above this okay very nicely taken by the virus virus took control today no second thoughts so number one nice Hammer okay number two a gap up nice Gap up a hammer closing Above This Gap as well is again taken as a positive side okay so clear till here now ideally this is the next immediate Gap that we will aim at Market will aim at this immediate next Gap uh which is at 22724"

"so now let's try and see if we can have some nice analytic on this so from this topmost point two this is the bottommost point everyone agrees yes I'll just stretch this a little bit me remove this magnet one minute so that I can just at least pull this a little bit okay what has happened understand now so first we're focusing only on the first fall and the pullback this was the first fall and we saw a pullback retracement was at which level retracement has happened till the 50% level very clearly we can see 0.5 for those who are comparatively new 23.6% retracement 38.2% retracement 50% retracement 61.8% retracement 78.6% retracement one whatever okay so what we saw is that post a sharp fall we saw 50% retracement and after ret 50% retracement it was not able to sustain we saw a fresh round of selling that that that that that's where we came down okay fair now let's see what has happened in the second Fall Again an altf from the the topmost point to the bottommost point right here correct to the bottommost point let me just extend this okay so this is the bottommost point correct topmost point bottommost point what has happened tu tu tu retracement till what again 50% I'll Zoom so that you see it very clearly see 50% it has retraced till 50% and that that that that that we started collapsing again so both pullbacks that we have seen in the in the current fall we only have two pullback relies only two pullbacks pullback fall and a pullback fall and a pullback and a pullback that's what we've seen till now right major ones now you can see what is the current scenario this is the fall and now same logic I'll apply from this topmost point to the bottommost point somewhere here now let us check how much is it and here we can see at 50% we have a 50% retracement at 22,800 22887 okay"

"I've said this so many number of times 23,800 23,300 22,800 22,300 21,800 and bhagan nak but election day low 21,300 we have talked about this I I mean those who have been following our Thursday live stream even if they're in deep sleep and someone asks levels they should start immediately right so again it's coming to a crucial level of 22,800 again so what I would watch out for is a 22,800 level plus what will happen in this pullback so I hope you have understood where why did I write Nifty near 23,000 this is coming to 22887 rounding it up to 23,000 okay why should I write the title as Nifty near 22887 soon what I mean it would have not looked good right so okay anyways this level I'm just drawing an a here so ideally would wait to close above this and now let us see okay now let's take this where is our I'll put it at 22,800 so one minute 22,800 is somewhere here okay now now let us say as per the Fibonacci retracement what happens okay let's draw this okay everyone please understand we saw this fall we saw this fall then we had a pullback we saw another fall we had a pullback now we saw this fall and now as per our 50% retracement Theory we see a pullback here but again as I said 22 800 in itself is a very strong support"

"and if we are able to take it further up above 23,800 also somewhere like this I know this is going to take time it's not like a back to back thing please don't imagine that then po almost 23800 I feel that will be a first early sign of reversal of a trend because that is where that is where we would have established a scenario where let me draw this for you all it will be a high a low a lower high a lower low a lower high a lower low somewhere here as I mentioned even if not and here if we are able to close here maybe somewhere like this and then like this then it's an indication yes these lower high lower low thing has been taken out from here we may start a fresh Trend so 23800 is still way way far from that"

"whatever sips you have please don't stop them please don't pause the sips right now this is the best time to invest in sips mathematically uh you can average it at lower and lower prices so I mean I really would not understand a reason why people would want to stop sips right now falling markets are the best time to do I'll tell you about myself I I have I have sips in around I think five mutual funds not even a single one I have paused sips so please keep continue with with your sips"

"Nifty rebalancing happens every six months and different criterias are used how much is the turnover uh uh then there a word impact cost how much is the impact cost so many there are if I'm not mistaken there are five criterias let me just check I mean pretty theoretical things right one minut it that stock has to be in the Fendo Nifty inclusion criteria NFC just give me a second right mogram okay so here I got just Googled out right just sharing my screen something new again um see this is what we have come across this document which is available 28th February 2025 right n uh you can see 50 companies based value is th000 how much is the returns standard deviation is how much beta is how much corion also highest weightages to what to HDFC bank then to IC bank then to Reliance then infosis then bhel then L&T then so basically anything out of these moves drastically is going to move the entire Nifty right so this is about the constituents and you can see the index ofr how it has performed and then you can see index methodology eligibility criteria for selection of constituents stocks okay uh let me just see I'm not sure whether you'll be able to click this or not but Puja please post again just copy this and post it in the pinned comment and description also so that everyone can read this whenever time permits but this is what see I was this is the word I was right I said impact cost so Market impact cost is one of the criterias then they are allowed to trade they have to be in F Ando then only they can be a part of index they should have a minimum listing history of one month as on cut off date then index rebalancing is done twice every year semi annually 31st J so different criterias that they'll look out for see for a stock to qualify for possible inclusion into the nifty50 they have have traded at an average impact cost of 05% or less during last 6 months for 90% of the observation plus they have also constituents now they have constituents and so many things that they'll consider based on which uh they would do the inclusion in the Nifty"

"Target by the end of this year can we lift the alltime high I doubt by the end of this year if we can why not not keeping my hopes very high"

"by when we can judge that this is the bottom of the graph if it continues to rise the point that I made right 22,800 and 23,800 super key levels definitely keep an eye on that"

"right now what we are seeing as a trend about beat Mexico beat um America beat Mexico beat uh Canada he's he's not staying true to what he has said I mean he'll postpone it he preon it again he postponed it basically he's wanting to get the leaders to talk across the table and finalize the things right that is what we can see right now and so that so we never know what he has talked about the tariffs the reciprocal tariffs about India again there are great chances that he may say something different he may do something different so right now it's it's so much of ifs and buts uh so rather than you know coming up to conclusions I think it'll be better to wait and watch uh and then then come to certain conclusions right too early to talk about how will these tariffs impact India right away"

"all in all I hope today you have understood about a very very important point about Fibonacci retracement uh a 50% pullback is what we have seen in the first down moves first two down moves and this 50% retracement in the current down move possibly could take it to 22,800 that is a very crucial level if we are able to stay above that it'll be again really interesting to watch out uh then we could eye higher targets don't get very excited very very early Trends I'm repeating don't get excited a lot absolute early Trends once early Trends get established once we get more confirmations then we can be a little bit more confident in saying some more things"

"Tesla news and Tesla is coming up in India uh they have signed a lease deal to open their first showroom in Mumbai and uh so this is going to create some havoc in the auto space uh competition will be steep Tesla's entry will definitely lead to some sort of jitters in uh the overall Auto space"

"I'm confident it will reach $130,000 by 2025."

"President Donald Trump again announced a one month delay in tariffs especially for Mexico and Canada again."

"whenever crude oil is low whenever crude oil is decreasing it's always a good sign for our economy per se it is good sign for few Industries as well something like paints for which crude is one of the key raw materials it is good for something like Aviation so paints Aviation Bo so something like any stocks I will not name the stocks but any paint related stocks is going to be good if the crude oil prices come down because crude is an important raw material for them for Aviation stocks again it's going to be a good point for tire making companies again it'll be a good point it'll be a good point for oil marketing companies so all in all whenever crude oil comes down it's good for a lot of Industries as well Plus for the overall market crude oil whenever it stays at a lower level it is cheered by the market that is down"

"two-year bond yields they have also come off quite a bit"

"domestic Trend uh on a year-on-year basis I'm not talking about the total sales because total sales will include domestic Sales Plus exports I was interested a little bit more in domestic sales because that shows how much is the indigenous demand within the country demand because that talks about the overall economy related strength right and that showed just 3% year on year growth barely 3% year on year growth didn't like it if you're talking about a month on month if if I were to compare January 25 with oh sorry if I were to compare February 25 with January 25 uh that's in fact minus 5% it's a degrowth of 5% so again I'm talking about domestic sale only I'm not talking about domestic plus supports"

"march to date 4,700 crores sold by fi day one of March then 3,400 crores everything is in rupes gr then 2,900 roughly and today 2,300 roughly what interesting data point that I could see today"

"after an 8% fall if you see such a nice Hammer which was formed today itely a welcome move no second thoughts on that okay so one point a nice Hammer second point is that we could see a small Gap but yes a gap so I'll just uh draw a line here so that we understand where the Gap was okay and have we substantially closed Above This Gap answer is yes definitely a good sign"

"ideally this is the next immediate Gap that we will aim at Market will aim at this immediate next Gap uh which is at 22724 or 22800 whatever is the case Okay so this is what we should be looking at next 22,700 22,800 as per this Gap filling Theory"

"post a sharp fall we saw 50% retracement and after ret 50% retracement it was not able to sustain we saw a fresh round of selling"

"and here we can see at 50% we have a 50% retracement at 22,800 22887"

"what I would watch out for is a 22,800 level plus what will happen in this pullback so I hope you have understood where why did I write Nifty near 23,000 this is coming to 22887 rounding it up to 23,000"

"then po almost 23800 I feel that will be a first early sign of reversal of a trend because that is where that is where we would have established a scenario where let me draw this for you all it will be a high a low a lower high a lower low a lower high a lower low somewhere here as I mentioned even if not and here if we are able to close here maybe somewhere like this and then like this then it's an indication yes these lower high lower low thing has been taken out from here we may start a fresh Trend so 23800 is still way way far from that"

"whatever sips you have please don't stop them please don't pause the sips right now this is the best time to invest in sips mathematically uh you can average it at lower and lower prices"

"if you are a new be goes without saying nifty50 index mutual fund simple"

"right now what we are seeing as a trend about beat Mexico beat um America beat Mexico beat uh Canada he's he's not staying true to what he has said I mean he'll postpone it he preon it again he postponed it basically he's wanting to get the leaders to talk across the table and finalize the things right that is what we can see right now and so that so we never know what he has talked about the tariffs the reciprocal tariffs about India again there are great chances that he may say something different he may do something different so right now it's it's so much of ifs and buts uh so rather than you know coming up to conclusions I think it'll be better to wait and watch"

"if it continues to rise the point that I made right 22,800 and 23,800 super key levels definitely keep an eye on that"

"if p is lower than one then it's considered as a good sign okay so both are important don't say either or I typically check both"

"impact cost is one of the criterias then they are allowed to trade they have to be in F Ando then only they can be a part of index they should have a minimum listing history of one month as on cut off date then index rebalancing is done twice every year semi annually 31st J so different criterias that they'll look out for see for a stock to qualify for possible inclusion into the nifty50 they have have traded at an average impact cost of 05% or less during last 6 months for 90% of the observation"

"Target by the end of this year can we lift the alltime high I doubt by the end of this year if we can why not not keeping my hopes very high"

"a 50% pullback is what we have seen in the first down moves first two down moves and this 50% retracement in the current down move possibly could take it to 22,800 that is a very crucial level if we are able to stay above that it'll be again really interesting to watch out then we could eye higher targets don't get very excited very very early Trends I'm repeating don't get excited a lot absolute early Trends once early Trends get established once we get more confirmations then we can be a little bit more confident in saying some more things"

"President Donald Trump again announced a one month delay in tariffs especially for Mexico and Canada again oh my God I mean it's it's crazy right"

"always remember whenever crude oil is low whenever crude oil is decreasing it's always a good sign for our economy per se it is good sign for few Industries as well something like paints for which crude is one of the key raw materials"

"us two-year bond yields they have also come off quite a bit"

"Tesla is coming up in India uh they have signed a lease deal to open their first showroom in Mumbai and uh so this is going to create some havoc in the auto space uh competition will be steep Tesla's entry will definitely lead to some sort of jitters in uh the overall Auto space"

"Dollar Index comparatively at recent lows again taken positively by the market"

"22,800 would will be the level that we should be watching out for 22800 again I'm repeating this very very important Point according to we 22800 is like a make or break level"

"then we could eye higher targets don't get very excited very very early Trends I'm repeating don't get excited a lot absolute early Trends once early Trends get established once we get more confirmations then we can be a little bit more confident in saying some more things"

"if you are a new be goes without saying nifty50 index mutual fund simple"

"Nifty rebalancing happens every six months and different criterias are used how much is the turnover uh uh then there a word impact cost how much is the impact cost so many there are if I'm not mistaken there are five criterias"

"for a stock to qualify for possible inclusion into the nifty50 they have have traded at an average impact cost of 05% or less during last 6 months for 90% of the observation plus they have also constituents"

"Target by the end of this year can we lift the alltime high I doubt by the end of this year if we can why not not keeping my hopes very high"

"Fibonacci retracement a 50% pullback is what we have seen in the first down moves first two down moves and this 50% retracement in the current down move possibly could take it to 22,800 that is a very crucial level if we are able to stay above that it'll be again really interesting to watch out"

"but could it lead to a pullback possibility yes on what basis am I saying that I'm going to discuss everything today's technical analysis I'm sure is going to be enjoyed by a lot of you"

"for Aviation stocks again it's going to be a good point for tire making companies again it'll be a good point"

"domestic Trend uh on a year-on-year basis I'm not talking about the total sales because total sales will include domestic Sales Plus exports I was interested a little bit more in domestic sales because that shows how much is the indigenous demand within the country demand because that talks about the overall economy related strength right and that showed just 3% year on year growth barely 3% year on year growth didn't like it uh if you're talking about a month on month if if I were to compare January 25 with uh oh sorry if I were to compare February 25 with January 25 uh that's in fact minus 5% it's a degrowth of 5%"

"main point is that yes they are at least slowing the pace at which they are selling right now again which is definitely a a point of relief for uh us right"

"if the market fell from here to here how much did it recover and for that what is the simple way in technical analysis Fibonacci retracement how much was the retracement after the fall so now let's try and see if we can have some nice analytic on this"

"this is the best time to invest in sips mathematically uh you can average it at lower and lower prices so I mean I really would not understand a reason why people would want to stop sips right now falling markets are the best time to do"

"right now it's it's so much of ifs and buts uh so rather than you know coming up to conclusions I think it'll be better to wait and watch uh and then then come to certain conclusions right too early to talk about how will these tariffs impact India"