How to Invest in a Falling Market? | Ft. @soniashenoyofficial | CA Rachana Ranade
Published: 2024-11-29
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-11-29
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Nifty index has experienced a 10% correction from its peak, which is considered a corrective phase rather than a bear market.
"the Nifty is down about 10% from the top... this is not bare Market this is still a correction"
Pending
In addition to price correction, there could be a prolonged time-wise correction in the market.
"there could be RNA very long time wise correction also"
Pending
A cyclical theory suggests that bull markets create weak investors, leading to bear markets, which then create strong investors, ultimately leading back to bull markets.
"bull markets create weak investors weak investors create bare markets bare markets create strong investors and strong investors create bull markets again"
Pending
Foreign institutional investors are cyclically moving money out of India and into China.
"fi is moving money out of India and into China it's very cyclical in nature"
Pending
FIIs have been selling for a while, but strong domestic investment masked the impact. However, increased selling, with 40,000 crores in November, has started to be felt.
"fi have actually been selling for a while... it's just that the domestic Market was so strong that we never felt that you know that dip but now of course the once the FI money became like the selling became too much I think 40,000 cres in November"
Pending
Retail investor participation in the market is strong, evidenced by record monthly SIP inflows of around 25,000 crores.
"retail money is become very strong if you see sips also monthly sips now 25,000 crores or whatever there was some number and that is the highest ever that we've seen in terms of monthly sips"
Pending
A potential win for Donald Trump is viewed as positive for India, as his anti-China rhetoric could lead to a shift of investment from China to India.
"I feel Trump's win is positive for India... if there is any anti-china rhetoric from Trump then that could you know people would perhaps move money out of China into India"
Pending
Bitcoin has been the most significant trade of 2024, experiencing a 40% rally since November 5th.
"Bitcoin has really been the biggest trade of 2024 so far... 40% rally since November 5th"
Pending
The anti-crypto head of the US SEC is resigning, and a pro-crypto woman favored by Trump is expected to take charge, signaling a potential shift in US crypto regulation.
"the head of us SEC is now is now going to resign he is anti- crypto and now they taking a pro crypto woman who's going to be the SEC in charge she's Trump's favorite"
Pending
A key investment theme for the next 3-5 years is the financialization of savings, benefiting companies involved in capital markets like exchanges (BSE, NSE) and depositories (CDSL), as well as brokerage firms.
"the big three investment Arena ONE would be um financialization of you know assets financialization of savings so whether it is companies like say um BC the unlisted nsse or cdsl or you know all the brokerage companies of the world"
Pending
Digitization is another significant investment theme, with a particular positive outlook on the quick commerce space, citing companies like Zomato.
"then the other theme is just the digitization theme right so for example I am I am very positive on this whole quick Commerce space... whether it's figy whether it's zato"
Pending
India's per capita GDP, currently around $2,200, is projected to reach $3,000, which historically triggers a significant consumption boom.
"India is now at about $2,200 taking everyone into consideration... this just a matter of time before we get to 3,000 and see that consumption boom"
Pending
Urbanization is a major investment theme, driven by migration from smaller cities and rural areas to larger urban centers, indicating significant growth opportunities.
"the other theme is urbanization right... people moving from tier two tier three cities to tier one cities rural to Urban... massive urbanization in you know States like in in cities like Bangalore not just metros outside as well"
Pending
The trend of premiumization is expected to benefit sectors like luxury real estate and luxury cars as urbanization progresses.
"urbanization would include everything premium look at the premium end of the market right whether it's luxury... luxury cars luxury um real estate"
Pending
The Indian hotel industry is experiencing strong demand, partly due to a significant number of weddings scheduled in the upcoming auspicious period.
"Indian hotels is at an all-time high 48 lakh weddings are going to happen in the next one month in this auspicious period"
Pending
The FMCG sector is undergoing disruption, with traditional companies like Marico, Dabur, and HUL reporting a slowdown in consumption.
"there is one disruption that's happening in the fmcg space which I think is very interesting to me so the traditional companies if you saw in this quarter whether it's Maro darber H Asian pains is another category we'll talk about but Maro d h all are talking about slowdown in consumption"
Pending
The speaker moved out of Asian Paints two years ago due to a lack of returns and notes the emergence of competitors like Berger Paints and AkzoNobel (referred to as B Opus).
"I've been an Asian pains investor for many years two years ago I realized that the there's no return so I moved out of it... now of course B Opus and all have come into play"
Pending
It's impossible to precisely time the market bottom; however, the speaker's strategy is to invest a lump sum every time the market falls by 10%.
"you can't catch the bottom that that is true it could go down another 20% 30% you never know but what I do as an investor I'll tell you every 10% fall in the market I put a lumpsum"
Pending
During market corrections, investors should review their direct stock portfolios, avoid emotional decisions, remove underperforming stocks, and reallocate capital.
"in my direct stock portfolio I will go through it and I see book out don't be motional book out turn turn into emotional book out turn turn into another stock keep your portfol remove your underperformers"
Pending
During market downturns, it is advisable to avoid small caps, penny stocks, underperformers, companies with weak balance sheets, high debt-to-equity ratios, and corporate governance issues.
"stay away from small caps stay away from penny stock stay away from underperformers uh stay away from companies that have bad balance sheets stay away from companies that have high debt Equity stay away from companies that have corporate governance issues"
Pending
Significant wealth creation primarily occurs during bear markets, not bull markets.
"wealth is only created in a bare Market bull markets don't make wealth for anybody"
Pending
Identify fundamentally strong companies with good management and solid businesses in growing sectors, such as Apollo Hospitals, as opportunities during market downturns.
"identify companies that are fundamentally very strong and are giving you an opportunity to buy so for AP poo hospitals for example... great management very good uh you know lineage uh solid business in a growing space"
Pending
The Indian Hotels stock has doubled in value over the past year, driven by high demand, including the significant number of weddings occurring.
"Indian hotels stock has doubled in one year... see this 48 lakh weddings that's happening in one month in India somebody has to book rooms right"
Pending
When considering entering a stock that has already seen significant gains, it's important to assess the 'rate of change,' the disruption occurring, and valuations. Stocks like Dixon Tech, despite being loved, are considered overvalued.
"you have to see the um there's something called rate of change a lot of people talk about that what is a disruption that's happening and what is the of course valuations are very important like right now I feel stocks like say Dixon Tech I love that Company Dixon Tech but valuations are just too high"
Pending
Market cycles tend to repeat themselves, and the common sentiment that 'this time it's different' is generally not true.
"the Cycles the market Cycles are the same always we say this time it's different but it's never different it's always the same"
Pending
Investors should prioritize the process of research and selecting quality companies and management rather than solely focusing on achieving a specific market goal, as market conditions and targets can change.
"don't focus on the goal focus on the process the process is more enjoyable because that goal is you know like we said that goal posts keep changing so focus on the process focus on your research focus on picking great companies good managements"
Pending
The stock market is driven by greed and fear; investors need to cultivate detachment to avoid being overly influenced by these emotions.
"Market is all about greed and fear right... you have to learn Detachment in such a way that you don't get greedy also and you don't get fearful"
Pending
An ideal mental state for an investor is to maintain equanimity, remaining unaffected by extreme highs or lows, similar to the concept of 'Samatvam' in the Bhagavad Gita.
"mental state should be same on the happiest day of your life and on the saddest day of your life"
Pending
Rising US bond yields typically put pressure on emerging markets.
"Rising us bond yields... generally when us Bond deals right Emerging Markets come under pressure"
Pending
The midcap index is trading at an expensive valuation of approximately 29 times forward P/E.
"midcap Index right the midcap index is currently trading at about 29 times forward P which is yeah it's expensive"
Pending
Nifty companies have experienced single-digit profit growth for the second consecutive quarter, with the growth rate being only 4% in the second quarter, indicating a slowdown.
"this is the second consecutive quarter of single digit profit growth in their coverage Universe the Nifty growth has been only 4% in profits for second quarter"
Pending
The 'Trump trade' is discussed as a cyclical phenomenon related to India versus China capital flows, potentially influenced by election outcomes.
"then there is this today in fact I was discussing I had vikas kman on a show that I'm doing and he was telling me that this Trump trade is generally you know something that happens when uh so it's a I mean now of course it's election based but generally there is a cyclical trade where this India versus China"
Pending
Retail investors typically enter the market at the peak of a bull market due to fear of missing out (FOMO).
"at the speak of the bull market is when retail investors enter right because of foro"
Pending
China's property and stock markets have experienced a significant collapse over the past six months.
"if you see China if you see the last 6 months China has collapsed the property Market has collapsed the stock market is collapsed"
Pending
The financialization of assets is a major theme currently observed in the market.
"financialization of assets is a big big uh you know uh theme that this Market is seeing"
Pending
Crossing the $3,000 per capita GDP mark historically triggers a substantial consumption boom.
"once that $3,000 level hit right post that there was a huge consumption boom"
Pending
Urbanization is also characterized by migration from established metropolises like Mumbai to tier-one and tier-two cities, driven by factors such as pollution and population density.
"people are in fact moving to now uh from Mumbai to say a tier one city or tier 2 City because of you know pollution population all of that"
Pending
An increase in the wealth gap leads to higher consumption among the affluent, driving strong performance in luxury and premium products.
"this means that the rich were consuming more that's why luxury seeing premium product so you're seeing luxury do very well"
Pending
India's current economic development, with infrastructure growth, mirrors China's past playbook, which also saw a surge in pollution.
"the exact same thing it's a Playbook of what was happening in China so infrastructure picked up in a huge way and there was a massive surge in pollution"
Pending
Traditional FMCG companies like Marico, Dabur, and HUL are reporting a slowdown in consumption.
"the traditional companies if you saw in this quarter whether it's Maro darber H Asian pains is another category we'll talk about but Maro d h all are talking about slowdown in consumption"
Pending
Consumers are becoming more health-conscious, leading to reduced consumption of products high in palm oil and unhealthy ingredients, causing struggles for traditional FMCG companies.
"people are now educating themselves so people are consuming lesser biscuits lesser uh you know things with palm oil lesser that's why these traditional media not media traditional fmcg companies are struggling"
Pending
Newer players like Berger Paints (referred to as 'Bas'/'JSW') are significantly impacting the paint industry, with Asian Paints reportedly facing similar challenges.
"something like a Bas uh which is like you know killing it right now so jsw yeah yeah so Asian pains if I'm not mistaken again same story"
Pending
Dealers are reportedly incentivized to promote brands like Berger Paints due to higher commissions, indicating competitive pressure on established players.
"every dealer is now uh telling you you know you know B Opus use really yeah yeah because they are getting I think Dealer incentives are higher commissions maybe better commissions"
Pending
Despite a 10% market correction, ICICI Bank remains close to its 52-week high, indicating fundamental strength.
"IC Bank even in today's market after 10% fall if you see ICS Bank is still close to its 52 week high"
Pending
Apollo 24/7 has transitioned from being loss-making to profitable, achieving break-even.
"Apollo 247 first from being loss making is now become profitable I think Break Even they've seen"
Pending
Medical tourism is experiencing significant growth.
"medical tourism is picking up in a big way right now"
Pending
Medical inflation is currently running at 15%.
"medical inflation itself is 15% now"
Pending
The wedding planning industry is experiencing exceptionally high demand, with wedding planners fully booked and hotels in locations like Jaipur operating at peak capacity.
"my husband is a wedding planner... he does not have a date free in this whole season and he tells me he's like Sonia jaur is become like he's in jur currently he's like jaur hotels are become like train stations"
Pending
Luxury hotels are seeing high demand, with customers willing to pay premium rates comparable to or exceeding those in international destinations like Dubai or Thailand.
"people are paying as much as you would pay for a you know a hotel say much more than a hotel you're paying in Dubai or in Thailand or wherever yeah yeah and still people are happily booking these you know luxury hotels"
Pending
Market cycles typically see a turn every four to five years, requiring investors to exercise patience during downturns.
"you may have to be patient three years four years but every four years or every five years if you see the market takes a turn from whichever way way it is"
Pending
Strong management, such as N. Chandrasekaran at the Tata Group, can significantly transform a company's fortunes.
"there are so many managements that have changed the way companies have like Chandra for example in Chandra of Tata group I mean since he has come on board Tata group's fortunes have completely changed"
Pending
Despite democratic constraints, India is achieving significant economic progress, which is commendable when compared to China's authoritarian model.
"given the Democracy constraints right given the constraints in a democracy India is doing a phenomenal job"
Pending
The slowdown in consumption of products like biscuits may be attributed to a growing health consciousness in the nation, rather than solely inflation.
"is it that people are consuming lesser biscuits because inflation is hitting their pocket or is it that we are just become healthier as a nation"
Pending
Disruptions in industries can also originate from large, established organizations, not just from new startups.
"it's not just disruption from new startups or disruptive players smaller players it's disruption from large organizations also"
Pending
A proactive strategy to capitalize on market downturns is to invest a lump sum every time the market declines by 10%.
"every 10% fall in the market I put a lumpsum"
Pending
Bear markets should be viewed as opportunities for wealth creation, as they are fundamentally where wealth is built.
"bear markets are a blessing... wealth is only created in a bare Market"
Pending
Sandeep Bakhshi's leadership at ICICI Bank is highlighted as an example of management transformation leading to positive company outcomes.
"similarly s bakshi IC Bank"
Pending
Bitcoin has been the biggest trade of 2024, with a 40% rally and nearing $99,000. This suggests significant positive momentum and potential for further growth in the cryptocurrency market.
"Bitcoin has really been the biggest trade of 2024 so far. 40% right if I'm not m not yet touched I think last check was $99,000 exactly."
Pending
Apollo Hospitals is a fundamentally strong company with a solid business in a growing space (medical tourism). The company's Apollo 24/7 initiative has transitioned from loss-making to profitable, and the stock is near its 52-week high.
"for AP poo hospitals for example I disclaim I'm a long-term investor in that stock but a polo hospitals had um I think even now it's sitting at close to its 52 we High MH it a few years ago started Apollo 247 right in its own space it disrupted it started now Apollo 247 first from being loss making is now become profitable I think Break Even they've seen right great management very good uh you know lineage solid business in a growing space medical tourism is picking up in a big way right now"
Pending
Indian Hotels' stock has doubled in one year, driven by a surge in weddings and the subsequent demand for hotel bookings.
"and I gave you this example of Indian hotels stock has doubled in one year correct right you see this 48 lakh weddings that's happening in one month in India somebody has to book rooms right true true"
Pending
The speaker believes that Trent's recent run may be over, considering its expansion into new areas like 'fake diamonds'.
"similar with Trent I feel like Trent has sort of and now there's so much now they're getting into new things getting into these uh whatever that fake diamonds and all that so I I feel all of that maybe the run is done"
Pending
Under Chandrasekaran's leadership, the fortunes of the Tata Group have significantly improved.
"like Chandra for example in Chandra of Tata group I mean since he has come on board Tata group's fortunes have completely changed"
Pending
S. Bakshi's leadership at ICICI Bank is highlighted as an example of positive management impact.
"similarly s bakshi IC Bank"
Pending
China has legalized Bitcoin and crypto. The head of the US SEC, who was anti-crypto, is resigning and will be replaced by a pro-crypto woman favored by Trump. This indicates a potential shift towards a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto.
"China has now made Bitcoin legal crypto legal. Trump is doing a lot to you know that us SEC the financial regulator there the head of us SEC is now is now going to resign he is anti- crypto and now they taking a pro crypto woman who's going to be the SEC in charge she's Trump's favorite."
Pending
Bear markets are where wealth is truly created, not bull markets. This suggests that significant wealth accumulation is more likely to occur during periods of market decline.
"wealth is only created in a bare Market bull markets don't make wealth for anybody so true so true"
Pending
An investor's strategy is to invest a lump sum amount every time the market falls by 10%, indicating a buy-the-dip strategy during corrections.
"every 10% fall in the market I put a lumpsum"
Pending
Wealth is created in bear markets, implying that market downturns present opportunities for significant wealth accumulation.
"wealth is only created in a bare Market"
Pending
Bear markets are viewed as a blessing, providing opportunities to invest heavily when portfolios are down 50%, leading to significant alpha (outperformance).
"bare markets are a blessing I feel like in my investing journey of 12 13 years I saw two big bare markets 2008 and 2020 yeah I feel I got my because of that the bare Market when at that time it was gut-wrenching because my portfolio fell by 50% but I got the courage and I pumped in Big Time when the portfolio fell 50% and that Alpha was true true"
Pending
India's per capita GDP is around $2,200 and is projected to reach $3,000, which is expected to trigger a significant consumption boom, similar to what China experienced.
"India is now at about $2,200 taking taking everyone into consideration of course there is an argument that if you remove the one% of the top creme then India is still at 1900 1800 but still overall if you see uh India is about 21 $2,200 per capita GDP so we this just a matter of time before we get to 3,000 and see that consumption boom"
Pending
Market cycles are not unique; they tend to repeat patterns, implying that current market conditions, even if they seem different, are likely following historical trends.
"the Cycles the market Cycles are the same always we say this time it's different but it's never different it's always the same"
Pending
Following a 35% drawdown during COVID, the Indian market (Nifty) rose 220% in the subsequent four years, suggesting significant upside potential.
"in the next four years the market went up 220% from 8,000 low Nifty to 25,000 Nifty right I mean there is no end to the market upside"
Pending
Urbanization is driving growth in the premium and luxury segments of the market, including luxury cars and real estate.
"urbanization would include everything premium look at the premium end of the market right whether it's luxury uh whether it is luxury cars luxury um real estate"
Pending
A potential Trump presidency is viewed as positive for India, as any anti-China rhetoric from Trump could lead to a reallocation of funds from China to India.
"Trump's win is positive for India because if there is any anti-china rhetoric from Trump then that could you know people would perhaps move money out of China into India"
Pending
The Indian market (Nifty) has experienced a 10% correction from its peak, indicating a corrective phase rather than a bear market.
"The Nifty is down about 10% from the top... this is still a correction. It's a corrective phase where the market has come down 10% from the top."
Pending
The current market situation is characterized as a correction, with a 10% drop from the highs, and not a bear market.
"This is not bare Market this is still a correction. It's a corrective phase where the market has come down 10% from the top."
Pending
While the Maharashtra state election results provide a positive sentiment, they are not expected to significantly impact the overall market trajectory.
"the Maharashtra State elections it's a it's a sentiment positive but I don't think it's really going to move the needle of the market too much honestly"
Pending
The market reaction to the Maharashtra election results is expected to be a short-lived, knee-jerk reaction that will settle down within a day.
"the Maharashtra election results is a one day thing the way it reacts Market will KN jerk reaction and will settle down"
Pending
Rising US bond yields tend to put pressure on emerging markets, suggesting a negative correlation.
"Rising us bond yields... generally when us Bond deals right Emerging Markets come under pressure"
Pending
Bull markets are fundamentally driven by earnings growth.
"bull market is based on fundamental growth right earnings growth that's all"
Pending
Investors are seeking any positive news or event to fuel hopes of a market recovery.
"a lot of people are just looking to latch on to that one thing which you know will sort of give them a ray of hope that okay maybe the market will recover on Monday"
Pending
A single state election victory provides a sentiment boost but is unlikely to alter the overall market trajectory.
"just one state election win is not going to change the trajectory of the market yes it is a sentiment boost for sure it's a sentiment positive"
Pending
During a market correction phase, any upward movement is likely to be viewed as an opportunity to sell.
"when we are in a correction phase any uptake will be treated as a sellon rise"
Pending
The rally on Friday might have been a preemptive move by investors anticipating a sweeping victory for the BJP in the Maharashtra elections.
"the rally on Friday was preemptive preempting the fact that the Maharashtra elections would be a sweeping win for BJP"
Pending
The Nifty's 10% drop from its peak is a correction, not a bear market, despite some investors' perceptions of a crash.
"Nifty is down about 10% from the top... this is not a bare Market just to make everyone very clear every day people you know message me call me oh we are in a big crash crash B market this is not bare Market this is still a correction"
Pending
Market corrections can be time-wise or price-wise. While a 10% price correction has occurred, a prolonged time-wise correction is also possible.
"there are a lot of corrective phases which are in two parts there's time wise correction and price wise correction we have seen a 10% price wise correction but there could be RNA very long time wise correction also"
Pending
In a corrective phase, positive news is often used as an opportunity to sell.
"every good news is used as a sellon rally"
Pending
A short-covering rally on Monday might be met with selling pressure.
"the rally that we could see perhaps short covering rally that we could see on Monday could be sold into for all you know"
Pending
The 3,000-point fall in the Nifty from its high of 26,200 to around 23,500 is considered minuscule when viewed in the context of the overall rise from the COVID low of 8,000 to 26,000, which shows a consistent uptrend.
"the Nifty's high was 26,200 now we are at what around 23,500 or so right it's a 3ou barely a 3,000 Point Fall put it into context from the covid low of 2020 if you see the chart there has been no fall at all you know so that rise that we saw from 8,000 which was a covid low to 26,000 if you see the chart it's just been higher tops and higher bottoms so there's been no fall in that context a 3,000 Point Fall is minuscule"
Pending
The current market correction is considered healthy and has not yet reached an unhealthy stage.
"this is still a healthy correction it's not moved to that unhealthy correction stage yet"
Pending
The market reaction to the Maharashtra election results will likely be a short-lived, knee-jerk response before settling down.
"The Maharashtra election results is a one day thing the way it reacts Market will KN jerk reaction and will settle down"
Pending
The market is currently in a corrective phase.
"we are in a corrective phase of the market"
Pending
Four key reasons for the market correction are high valuations, weak earnings, rising US bond yields, and the 'Trump Trade'.
"High valuation mhm okay we'll talk about that in detail then weak earnings MH Rising us bond yields MH and the Trump Trade four things"
Pending
Even after a 10% correction, the Nifty's forward P/E ratio of 20 remains at its long-period average, indicating it is not yet cheap.
"currently the Nifty I think roundabout is trading at a 12month p of forward P of 20 times after the correction yeah right the long period average of the Nifty is 20 times so even after the correction of 10% it's not become cheap it's still just as per the long period average"
Pending
The NSE Midcap 100 index is trading at an expensive forward P/E of around 29 times.
"the midcap Index is currently trading at the nsec midcap 100 index is trading at about 29 times forward P which is yeah it's expensive"
Pending
High valuations in midcap stocks, including railway and defense stocks, have led to significant price corrections.
"so that's why you're seeing all the you know and midcap end so whether it's Railway stocks defense stocks all of these stocks coming off quite a bit right because the valuations were very very are very very high"
Pending
High and frothy valuations are correcting, reverting towards their mean.
"it's just reverting to mean a lot of these valuation froy valuations are correcting"
Pending
The Nifty has experienced single-digit profit growth for two consecutive quarters (Q1 and Q2), with Q2 showing only 4% growth, indicating a scaling down of earnings.
"this is the second consecutive quarter of single digit profit growth in their coverage Universe the Nifty growth has been only 4% in profits for second quarter so last quarter in q1 they saw single digit growth and they thought it's an aberration second quarter now only 4% profit growth which means that the earnings are being scaled down"
Pending
US bond yields reaching 4.4% typically put pressure on emerging markets.
"Rising us bond yields and that also we'll get into uh details if you wish but the bond yields now 4.4% I think it's touched and generally when us Bond deals right Emerging Markets come under pressure"
Pending
The 'Trump Trade' is a cyclical phenomenon where Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) move money between India and China.
"this Trump trade is generally you know something that happens when uh so it's a I mean now of course it's election based but generally there is a cyclical trade where this India versus China so FI is moving money out of India and into China it's very cyclical in nature"
Pending
A cyclical pattern exists where bull markets create weak investors, leading to bear markets, which in turn create strong investors who then fuel bull markets.
"bull markets create weak investors weak investors create bare markets bare markets create strong investors and strong investors create bull markets again"
Pending
Retail investors tend to enter the market when valuations are frothy.
"when retail enters into they enter at a time when the valuations are froy"
Pending
Defense, PSU, PSU Banks, and railway companies often see astronomical P/E ratios and widespread retail buying at market peaks.
"defense you see psus you see PSU Banks you see Railway companies you know I mean the P are astronomical for no reason but that is when everyone and their relatives are all sitting and buying"
Pending
CLSA has issued an 'overweight' rating on India and plans to shift focus from China to India.
"CLSA... they have again put overweight on India and they have said that we would want to shift our Focus back from China to India"
Pending
China's property and stock markets have collapsed in the last six months, leading to a cyclical shift where money is moving out of India and into China due to better valuations there.
"if you see China if you see the last 6 months China has collapsed the property Market has collapsed the stock market is collapsed so it's just a cyclical nature of money moving out of India and into China where the valuations are looking good"
Pending
Despite FII selling of ₹40,000 crore in November (following over ₹1 lakh crore in October), the market has only fallen 10% from its peak.
"despite fi selling 40,000 crores in November it's a 10% fall from the to I think October it was like 1 lakh CR I mean last month I think it crossed one like a number if I'm not misten per month yeah"
Pending
The financialization of assets is a significant theme driving the current market.
"financialization of assets is a big big uh you know uh theme that this Market is seeing"
Pending
Even in small villages in Rajasthan, people are upgrading their lifestyles by increasing SIP investments and purchasing better quality goods, indicating a broad-based consumption upgrade.
"people sitting in his hometown in um in Rajasthan he comes from a very small village he was saying over there also people now are upgrading their lifestyle they will be earning maybe 30,000 but they'll still 1,000 sip they will still be you know buying better biscuits buying better everything they're trying to upgrade their lifestyle in every way"
Pending
Trump's potential victory is seen as positive for India in the long run, as anti-China rhetoric could lead to capital flowing from China into India.
"Trump's win is positive for India I feel for the longer run because if there is any anti-china uh you know rhetoric from Trump then that could you know people would perhaps move money out of China into India"
Pending
Bitcoin has been the top trade of 2024, with a 40% rally and approaching $99,000.
"Bitcoin has really been the biggest trade of 2024 so far right 40% right if I'm not m not yet touched I think last check was $99,000 exactly"
Pending
The US SEC head, who is anti-crypto, is resigning and will be replaced by a pro-crypto woman favored by Trump, signaling a potential shift in US crypto regulation.
"Trump is doing a lot to you know that uh so basically there's a sec head us SEC the financial regulator there the head of us SEC is now is now going to resign he is anti- crypto and now they taking a pro crypto woman who's going to be the SEC in charge she's Trump's favorite"
Pending
While crypto is not legal tender in India, there is a taxation framework in place.
"in India there is a lot of I mean crypto is still not legal tender yeah but there are there is a taxation angle on it right"
Pending
The capital market theme, including companies like BSE, NSE, CDSL, and brokerage firms, is identified as a significant growth area due to the financialization of assets and savings.
"the big three uh investment Arena ONE would be um financialization of you know assets financialization of savings so whether it is companies like say um bse the unlisted nsse or cdsl or you know all the brokerage companies of the world all of that right that's a big growth area for me the Capital Market theme"
Pending
Digitization is another key investment theme, with a particular positive outlook on the quick commerce space.
"then the other theme is just the digitization theme right so for example I am I am very positive on this whole quick Commerce space"
Pending
With India's per capita GDP around $2,200, it is expected to reach $3,000, triggering a significant consumption boom.
"India is now at about $2,200 taking taking everyone into consideration... India is about 21 $2,200 per capita GDP so we this just a matter of time before we get to 3,000 and see that consumption boom"
Pending
Urbanization, with people migrating from tier 2/3 cities to tier 1 cities and rural to urban areas, is a significant economic theme.
"the other theme is urbanization right yeah you see people moving from tier two tier three cities to tier one cities rural to Urban"
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During China's infrastructure boom, the wealth gap widened, leading to increased consumption by the rich and a surge in premium products, a pattern that appears to be repeating in India.
"when this whole boom was you know uh when this infrastructure boom was happening in China two things happened at that time one is that the gap between the rich and the poor went up which means that the rich were consuming more that's why luxury seeing premium product... the exact same thing it's a Playbook of what was happening in China"
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Despite democratic constraints, India is performing phenomenally well.
"Given the constraints in a democracy India is doing a phenomenal job"
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India currently exhibits a duality of extreme wealth and poverty, with luxury establishments coexisting alongside slum areas, reflecting the nation's current economic landscape.
"the premiumization thing but the poor struggling I think a very nice thing that N Shah I I had an opportunity to hear him kotak uh he was telling that from his office cabin from one side of the window he can see nmac the M Cultural Center which is like the Posh location... and on this side he said on this side of the window he can see Davi and all the slum big slum area so he said that is actually what India is right now you can see the best in place and you can also see the poorest in place"
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Consumption trends include premiumization in real estate, luxury cars, and quick commerce, with high demand for events and entertainment also indicating strong consumer spending in these segments.
"consumption real estate luxury cars um uh even quick Commerce right quick Commerce is is is a part of that which I think like whether it's zato doing their Live Events and all of these shows selling out whether it's you know Doan Cold Play all of these you know just selling out in minutes"
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Traditional FMCG companies like Marico, Dabur, and HUL are reporting a slowdown in consumption.
"traditional companies if you saw in this quarter whether it's Maro darber H Asian pains is another category we'll talk about but Maro d h all are talking about slowdown in consumption"
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A shift towards healthier eating habits and increased awareness of health issues like diabetes are leading to reduced consumption of products like biscuits and those high in palm oil, impacting traditional FMCG companies.
"is it that people are consuming lesser biscuits because inflation is hitting their pocket or is it that we are just become healthier as a nation right like in my house for example 10 years ago my parents would eat biscuits with chai today they don't they eat homemade you know stir fry cha whatever they make at home because they are aware that and India is a like diabetes Hub of the world"
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Traditional FMCG companies are struggling due to disruptions in consumer preferences and market dynamics.
"traditional fmcg companies are struggling right so that is a disruption"
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Despite the Nifty's rally over the past year, traditional FMCG stocks like Marico and HUL have underperformed and provided no returns.
"if you see the last one year India Nifty has rallied but all these stocks have underperformed not have not Maro H nothing no returns absolutely absolutely"
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The speaker moved out of Asian Paints two years ago due to a lack of returns, noting the emergence of competitors like Berger Paints (B Opus).
"Asian pains... two years ago I realized that the there's no return so I moved out of it and I sold it whatever and now of course B Opus and all have come into play"
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Dealers are incentivized to promote Berger Paints due to potentially higher commissions, indicating a competitive shift in the paint industry.
"every dealer is now uh telling you you know you know B Opus use really yeah yeah because they are getting I think Dealer incentives are higher commissions maybe better commissions yeah"
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The speaker implements a strategy of investing a lump sum every time the market falls by 10%.
"every 10% fall in the market I put a lumpsum"
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During a falling market, investors should remove underperforming stocks from their portfolio, avoiding emotional decisions and reinvesting in better opportunities.
"remove all your underperformers so like for example I go through my portfolio and I see book out don't be motional book out turn turn into emotional book out turn turn into another stock keep your portfol remove your underperformers especially in a falling Market you know get a you're getting a chance to remove know k out of"
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During market downturns, it is advisable to avoid small caps, penny stocks, underperformers, companies with poor balance sheets, high debt-to-equity ratios, and corporate governance issues.
"when the market is falling stay away from small caps stay away from penny stock stay away from underperformers uh stay away from companies that have bad balance sheets stay away from companies that have high debt Equity stay away from companies that have corporate governance issues"
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Bear markets are considered a blessing for investors.
"bare markets are a blessing"
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Significant wealth creation primarily occurs during bear markets.
"wealth is only created in a bare Market"
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A key investment strategy is to cut losing positions and let winning positions run.
"cut your losers and ride on your winners"
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Investors should identify fundamentally strong companies that present buying opportunities during market downturns.
"identify companies that are fundamentally very strong and are giving you an opportunity to buy"
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The demand for luxury hotels during weddings in places like Jaipur and Udaipur, even at premium prices, exemplifies the trend of premiumization.
"classic example of premiumization that you mentioned few minutes yes yeah classic example of premiumization and this is not only Indians living in India NRI is global you know you know citizens coming to India getting married in jaur udur you know you go in fact you go to even for a holiday you go to a hotel like a RAR Palace in udur you are paying top dollar"
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When evaluating investments, consider the 'rate of change' and disruptions. While Dixon Technologies is a favored company, its valuations are currently too high, suggesting that those who missed getting in earlier may have missed the opportunity.
"you have to see the um there's something called rate of change a lot of people talk about that what is a disruption that's happening and what is the of course valuations are very important like right now I feel stocks like say Dixon Tech I love that Company Dixon Tech but valuations are just too high right so if you've not gotten to Dixon Tech sorry you missed it"
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Speculation suggests that India's Q2 GDP growth rate, expected on the 29th, might be slightly lower than anticipated, potentially between 6.3% and 6.5%.
"the GDP growth rate Q2 numbers are I think expected on the 29th and there are speculations that it could be lower as compared to the 6.5% which was being talked about it could be somewhere between 6.3 or 6.5%"
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The Indian market (Nifty) saw a 220% increase in the four years following the COVID-induced low, indicating substantial upside potential.
"in the next four years the market went up 220% from 8,000 low Nifty to 25,000 Nifty right I mean there is no end to the market upside"
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Market cycles tend to repeat and are not fundamentally different each time, despite perceptions that 'this time it's different'.
"the Cycles the market Cycles are the same always we say this time it's different but it's never different it's always the same"
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Investors should focus on the process of research and picking great companies with good management, rather than solely on the goal, as the goalposts tend to shift.
"focus on the process the process is more enjoyable because that goal is you know like we said that goal posts keep changing so focus on the process focus on your research focus on picking great companies good managements"
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The market is driven by greed and fear; investors must learn detachment to avoid succumbing to these emotions.
"Market is all about greed and fear right true so you have to learn Detachment in such a way that you don't get greedy also and you don't get fearful also"
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Fund managers who manage other people's money are considered true masters as they must navigate not only their own emotions but also those of their clients, which is exceptionally difficult.
"the worst for people who manage other people's money so I talk to a lot of people who manage money right and for them it's very hard because see managing your emotions is one thing managing other thousand people's other emotions is very hard so they are the true Masters"
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