I Invested ₹1 Crore with a Fund Manager… Here’s What Happened! Ft. Sunil Singhania | FWS 78
Published: 2025-11-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-11-13
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 16
Prediction
Topic
Status
Large-cap stocks in India are projected to deliver 10-12% returns, matching nominal GDP growth which is expected to be around 9.5-10% due to 6.5-7% real GDP growth and 3% inflation.
"GDP growth of 6 and a half 7 we think is possible. 3% inflation definitely is going to be there. So 9 and a half 10% is going to be a nominal GDP growth and I think large caps profit growth will be equal to that. Okay. and maybe returns will also be 10 12%."
Correct
Smaller companies in niche segments within India's broader markets are expected to generate slightly faster growth, potentially leading to 14-15% returns.
"The broader markets, the smaller companies are in niche segments, they can grow slightly faster and that is where we believe that a 14 15% return is possible."
Incorrect
The US national debt of $37 trillion is a significant concern, which has been a growing worry over time.
"Now $37 trillion is very very worrying but even 30 was worrying even 25 was worrying."
Correct
The US will likely need to lower interest rates to manage its increasing debt burden.
"I think ultimately US will have to have lower interest rates otherwise it is going to become increasingly difficult for them to manage this."
Correct
Achieving 20-25% or 30% annual returns consistently in the future is considered unlikely and would be fortunate if it occurs.
"I don't think that is going to be possible going forward or going forward not possible. I don't think so in anything. If it happens uh we should consider ourselves lucky."
Pending
India's economy is projected to grow by another $4 trillion in the next 8-10 years.
"The next 4 trillion is going to happen in 8 10 years."
Pending
Exposure to deep cyclical sectors like metals is typically limited to 8-9% due to their high volatility.
"So we don't go beyond 8 9% typically in these sectors because you know these can be very very volatile"
Pending
Domestic pharmaceutical companies are considered a better play for domestic consumption compared to some FMCG companies.
"So our bet is that if you want to play the domestic consumption play, domestic farmer will be better than some of these FMCG companies."
Correct
Growth in the IT services sector is expected to be limited to 2-4% annually due to headwinds such as AI and H1B visa issues, despite high valuations (20-25 times P/E).
"Because again we believe that growth there is going to be maybe maximum 2 3 4%. You know and there are a lot of headwinds with AI coming in H1B visa issue and so on and so forth and valuations are still upwards of 20 25 times."
Incorrect
The financial sector, including NBFCs, wealth managers, and fintech, is expected to grow at an accelerated pace.
"And I would say increasingly that segment is going to grow faster."
Correct
India's GDP growth is projected to be between 6.5% and 7%.
"GDP growth of 6 and a half 7 we think is possible."
Correct
India's nominal GDP growth is expected to be 9.5-10%, driven by a real GDP growth of 6.5-7% and an inflation rate of 3%.
"3% inflation definitely is going to be there. So 9 and a half 10% is going to be a nominal GDP growth."
Incorrect
Profit growth for large-cap companies in India is expected to match nominal GDP growth, leading to potential returns of 10-12%.
"large caps profit growth will be equal to that. Okay. and maybe returns will also be 10 12%."
Pending
Smaller companies in niche segments within India's broader markets are projected to grow faster, potentially yielding 14-15% returns.
"The broader markets, the smaller companies are in niche segments, they can grow slightly faster and that is where we believe that a 14 15% return is possible."
Pending
Future returns in the Indian market are not expected to benefit from P/E multiple expansion, with current multiples around 18.
"With P multiples not expanding, not coming down. P multiples are at 18. We are not building in any return out of P multiple expansion."
Incorrect
There is no fundamental basis to justify gold prices, despite factors like central bank and retail buying, and potential technical price targets of $5,000.
"There's no way to justify the gold price. So the reports say that central banks are buying. Correct. Retail is buying there is shortage. Technically it can go to 5,000."
Incorrect
Silver has real-world applications in booming technologies like EV batteries, and its annual production is significantly lower than the demand.
"silver has real world applications in the booming technologies that we are seeing here right like EV uh battery technology they're using silver a lot in it and if the amount of silver that is made in the whole world in a single year is significantly less than the demand for it"
Pending
High prices of materials like silver will likely lead to innovation, such as reducing the quantity used or mixing with other elements.
"So there will be innovation. If prices become too high, they'll come up. There will be innovation where it will say okay instead of using 10 g of silver I'll use 5 g of silver and mix it with something else."
Correct
The speaker is unable to determine how to value cryptocurrencies, despite having taken courses to understand them.
"but I don't understand the value of crypto. You know so I did a I did courses to understand uh you know the crypto but the only thing I'm not able to figure out is how do you value crypto."
Pending
The US dollar's 'overprinting' has led to imported inflation in India, causing prices to double in five years and eroding trust in the currency.
"the US dollar has been overprinted so much and that inflation has been imported to India. People like us uh something that we used to pay 100 rupees for 5 years back is literally 200 rupees right now. So the trust on the currency has gone down so much because of the overprinting by the government."
Incorrect
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin derive value from their limited supply, preventing overprinting unlike traditional fiat currencies.
"The promise of a cryptocurrency is that they will not let it be overprinted like you cannot make more bitcoin than the number that has been assigned to it. So isn't value to something assigned based on the limitation of what is there."
Correct
Companies with strong competitive moats, making it difficult for others to enter, are expected to grow faster and command higher P/E multiples.
"Companies which have a mode where not too many people can come in will grow faster. They will get a higher P the higher perception."
Correct
The current economic situation in the US is viewed as transitional and unlikely to persist indefinitely, possibly influenced by specific leadership actions.
"what is happening in US right now is something I don't think is going to continue forever. It's a transition there's a one person who is trying to do a lot of things"
Pending
Despite significant opportunities for wealth creation in India, a prevalent desire for rapid riches poses a challenge.
"The opportunity is huge. The only problem is everyone wants to become extraordinary rich overnight."
Pending
A vast majority of young people are traders rather than investors, which is seen as a recipe for disaster.
"99 out of 100 youngsters are not investors. They are traders. And that is a disaster of you know recipe for disaster"
Pending
Consistent annual returns of 20-40% are unlikely to be achievable in the future.
"those days of 20% compounding 30% compounding 40% compounding are not going to be there on a consistent basis."
Correct
India's economic growth is accelerating, with the next $4 trillion expected to be added in 8-10 years, compared to previous durations of 65-78 years for earlier trillions.
"The first trillion took 65 67 years to reach 4 trillion took 7778 years. The next 4 trillion is going to happen in 8 10 years."
Pending
China has significantly improved its product quality, transitioning from producing duplicates and substandard goods to becoming world-class in manufacturing.
"they have done a lot of things very well. You know, for example, I remember when we bought something, they have grown from there from making duplicates and substandard products. They have graduated to being the best in the world."
Correct
India has demonstrated success in infrastructure development, such as airports, though metro projects may take longer.
"wherever we have put our mind to we have been able to do well now metro is taking time but jabana at least they made it done a good job"
Correct
The investment philosophy focuses on basic, 'boring' strategies, which are considered effective for building wealth.
"Our tagline is believe in the basics. So we do very basic stuff, very boring stuff. But I was in Canada and I actually went into a large organization where the tagline was boring mixed wealth."
Unrated
The US is predicted to lower interest rates.
"US will have to have lower interest rates"
Correct
Expected equity returns should be compared to current fixed income rates of 6-7%, implying a lower expected return for equities than in the past.
"Now it is 6 7% and therefore you have to compare with that."
Correct
Companies in niche segments within broader markets are expected to grow faster, potentially yielding 14-15% returns.
"The broader markets, the smaller companies are in niche segments, they can grow slightly faster and that is where we believe that a 14 15% return is possible."
Pending
There is a positive outlook on the financial sector for investment.
"we also are pretty positive on that segment"
Correct
Given fixed income yields of 4-4.5% post-tax, equity returns of 20-25% are not expected to be consistently achievable over a 4-5 year horizon.
"the other thing is you know uh if your alternates like fixed income are going to give you four four and a half% post tax you can't have equity giving you 20 25% return you know so one of year it is possible But I don't think from a four five year kagger perspective those kind of returns are going to be possible in the listed equity space."
Incorrect
The IT sector faces headwinds from AI advancements and H1B visa issues.
"there are a lot of headwinds with AI coming in H1B visa issue and so on and so forth"
Correct
The Indian pharmaceutical market has low penetration, but increasing affordability and insurance awareness will drive growth.
"if you see the penetration of pharma in India is still very very low you know and affordability is increasing plus awareness of taking insurance is increasing. So the ability for general people to pay for health care awareness is there now ability to pay is also there."
Correct
Indian steel companies possess global competitiveness due to backward integration, captive resources (iron ore, power, coal), and domestic market strength, positioning them to be resilient.
"Indian companies are globally competitive. We have full backward integration. We have own iron ore. We have our own power including coal. We have our own market also and we are going to be the last man standing."
Correct
Non-ferrous metals are generally more influenced by global market dynamics.
"Non-ferris metals typically tend to be more global."
Correct
A weak US dollar has contributed to a rise in gold and silver prices, with other metals also showing upward momentum.
"a weak dollar has led to gold and silver shooting up correct metals are catching up a little bit"
Correct
A more peaceful global environment will likely spur reconstruction efforts, leading to increased demand for metals.
"and once the world becomes more peaceful which it is becoming there will be reconstruction so there will be obviously you know demand for metals coming in"
Pending
Building significant wealth through active investing involves making concentrated bets rather than diversifying across numerous companies.
"to build true wealth with active investing the game is about taking concentrated bets, right? Not investing in hundreds of different companies."
Pending
While concentration can be beneficial, over-concentration carries risks due to unpredictable external factors.
"So I think concentration is good, but over concentration can also have pitfalls. And you know things necessarily might not go the way you analyze it and the way you view because there are so many external factors also"
Correct
US policy changes, such as the introduction of restrictions on H-1B visas by the Trump administration, can significantly impact investments.
"for example tariff now suddenly Trump came and said no H-1B visas for example"
Correct
Mutual funds have delivered CAGR returns ranging from 15% to 20% over the past five years.
"in the last 5 years it has given anywhere from 15 to 20% CGR"
Incorrect
PMS funds are significantly smaller than mutual funds (e.g., 4-5,000 Cr vs. 1 lakh Cr), offering greater maneuverability due to liquidity advantages.
"our largest PMS would be 4 5,000 crores. The largest mutual fund scheme will be one lakh cr. So the ability to maneuver is to that extent restricted."
Correct
PMS investments offer greater manager consistency as investors typically deal with the founder, whereas mutual fund managers may change jobs.
"in a mutual fund it's professional fund managers who might change because they can change jobs in a PMS you're looking at the guy who set it up and you know that as long as a firm firm is there this guy is the one who's going to manage your money."
Pending
Successfully picking individual stocks requires being full-time in the market, having a large research team (8-10 analysts), and dedicating regular time to it.
"They should first be full-time into this. Second they should have the kind of resources we have which is 810 analyst. M uh they should have the time to do it on a regular basis."
Incorrect
Direct investing with small capital (50 lakh to 1 crore) is not advisable; larger sums (500-700 crores) are needed to justify hiring a professional team.
"You can't have 50 lakh 1 cr rupees and say I'll be direct investor. Then you have to have 5 700 crores because then you'll be able to afford hiring 8 10 people to manage the portfolio."
Pending
Individual investors are unlikely to outperform professional firms and research teams when picking stocks themselves.
"If you believe that you can do a better job than all the professional outfits and the huge research team, then you should do it. But normally it doesn't happen."
Correct
A common pitfall for individual investors is holding onto losing stocks, leading to a portfolio dominated by underperforming assets.
"When you're wrong you don't want to sell it at a loss. M so typically then your portfolio comprises of stocks where you have gone wrong which is the worst thing to happen."
Correct
Building a strong investment team (initially 8, now 20 people) was a priority from the outset for the firm, even with no assets under management.
"when we set up a backers the first thing we did without zero assets was to build a good team Obviously we that time had eight people in the investment time uh investment side now we can afford it so we have 20 people on the investment side because you need that"
Correct
Experience gained from 25-30 years of making investment mistakes has led to a reduction in errors and improved decision-making.
"Second is you have learned by making mistakes. So this 25 30 years of making mistakes has contributed to ensuring that we make less mistakes."
Pending
It's advisable for retail investors to allocate only a portion of their capital to direct investments, reserving some for high-conviction opportunities.
"don't put 100% of your corpus in direct investment maybe you cow out some portion right and say that I will reserve this for something if I get high conviction on"
Correct
A key indicator of good management is their discipline in capital allocation, balancing investment in the business with expected returns.
"the biggest thing which will determine a good management is I would say discipline in terms of capital allocation. How much are you going to allocate to the business and how much return are you going to make out of it?"
Pending
The firm will not invest in companies unless their Return on Capital Employed (ROC) is at least 14-15%.
"So our view is that the biggest thing which will determine a good management is I would say discipline in terms of capital allocation. How much are you going to allocate to the business and how much return are you going to make out of it? So unless the ROC is at least 14 15%, we don't invest"
Pending
Investors often avoid the steel sector due to its cyclical nature and capital-intensive operations, which typically result in lower ROC.
"steel typically investors don't invest because one it is cyclical and second is uh very capital intensive. So the ROC's tend to be lower"
Correct
With a cost of capital in India around 9-10%, businesses must generate returns of at least 3-4% above this to continuously add value.
"the cost of capital in India is at least 9 10%. Correct. So unless you make at least 3 4% more than that how are you going to continuously keep on adding value to the business."
Pending
Focus is on companies that genuinely generate profits, not just report them. Improved corporate governance in India is reducing shortcuts, but cash flows remain crucial to assess the quality of earnings.
"We want to focus on companies which generate profit. Luckily I think corporate governance in India is improving and therefore you know these kind of bishops have reduced but even now there are corporates who take the shortcut route of reporting profits rather than necessarily generating profit. So cash flows become very important"
Correct
A primary goal is to prevent portfolio mishaps by avoiding investments based on fraud, focusing instead on fundamental analysis even if market conditions cause stock prices to decline.
"our view is that we end up at least preventing mishaps in the portfolio. See you will always have scenarios where the stocks you buy has gone down because of things which you thought would happen have not happened or the market conditions and all but not on fundamental basis. It's not because of fraud that the stock has gone down and I think that is very very important"
Pending
Stock price is determined by earnings (EPS) and perception (P). Changes in perception, rather than earnings, are the primary drivers of significant price movements (both upside and downside).
"EPS is a function of how you manage your business. P is perception and more returns on either side upside or downside are made because of this perception change rather than earnings change."
Correct
New-age sectors are not currently invested in because they are not profit-making and lack ROC. However, they are being researched, with potential future investments possible if they meet the firm's criteria, even at higher valuations.
"the reason we have not bought it because they don't qualify. They are not profit making and they don't generate ROC. But at the same time we are aware of the fact that this $4 trillion of Indian economy when it goes to 8 trillion it will be contributed by very different sectors. So we are researching them and it is possible that we will end up buying few of them maybe at a higher price but when they qualify in our framework"
Pending
Investing in the US market is not pursued due to a lack of expertise and the availability of specialized US market fund managers.
"we can't invest in right and we don't have expertise. You know why would someone give Sunil Singhana funds to invest in US when I have no experience"
Incorrect
The speaker is not a believer in gold as an investment, stating they have not found any fundamental reports that justify its price.
"I am not a believer in gold and I've been wrong always. See gold you're not a believer in world like I have not come across a single fundamental report justifying gold prices"
Incorrect
There's no fundamental justification for gold prices, despite factors like central bank buying, retail demand, and potential technical targets.
"there's no way to justify the gold price. So the reports say that central banks are buying. Correct. Retail is buying there is shortage. Technically it can go to 5,000."
Incorrect
The speaker holds gold as an investment due to being married, with his wife's name being 'Kchen' (meaning gold).
"I have gold because I'm married. So my wife buys gold and her name is Kchen which is gold."
Pending
The speaker's personal asset allocation for liquid assets is 75% in equity and 25% in fixed income.
"equity would be 75% fixed income would be 25%."
Pending
The speaker holds some real estate investments, primarily owned offices leased to their company, but does not actively track this as a distinct investment perspective.
"I have frankly some investment but I have never seen it that perspective You know so the what we do is basically like the offices we own"
Pending
The speaker does not understand the value of cryptocurrency, despite efforts to learn about it.
"I don't understand it... but I don't understand the value of crypto."
Pending
Excessive printing of the US dollar has led to imported inflation in India, causing prices to double in five years.
"the US dollar has been overprinted so much and that inflation has been imported to India. People like us uh something that we used to pay 100 rupees for 5 years back is literally 200 rupees right now."
Incorrect
The US national debt of $37 trillion is a significant cause for concern.
"$37 trillion is very very worrying"
Correct
The current economic situation in the US is considered temporary and transitional.
"What is happening in US right now is something I don't think is going to continue forever. It's a transition."
Pending
Donald Trump's 'Make America Great Again' agenda and tariff policies might be aimed at addressing the US's economic challenges.
"maybe some reason why Trump is doing make America great again and putting uh tariff barriers and all is to little bit take care of that"
Correct
Lowering US interest rates from 4% to 1% would reduce annual interest payments on the $37 trillion debt from $1.5 trillion to $400 billion.
"at 37 trillion if you pay 4% interest it is $1.5 trillion annually. If you pay only 1% interest it is only $400 billion annually."
Pending
India's GDP growth is projected to be 6.5-7%.
"GDP growth of 6 and a half 7 we think is possible."
Correct
Inflation in India is expected to stabilize at 3%.
"3% inflation definitely is going to be there."
Incorrect
India's economy is accelerating, with the next $4 trillion expected in 8-10 years, compared to previous durations of 65-78 years.
"The first trillion took 65 67 years to reach 4 trillion took 7778 years. The next 4 trillion is going to happen in 8 10 years."
Pending
Young investors often aim for extraordinary wealth and aspire to achieve very high annual returns (25-40%).
"everyone wants to become extraordinary rich overnight. And then what you do? You aspire to make 25 30% 40% return."
Incorrect
The majority of young people engage in trading rather than investing.
"99 out of 100 youngsters are not investors. They are traders."
Unrated
The random walk theory suggests that without any knowledge, one has a 50% chance of being correct in market predictions.
"there is a concept called random walk theory. Even if you don't know anything you'll be right 50% of the time."
Pending
Young investors seeking consistent wealth creation should dedicate time to investments, avoid exceptionally high return opportunities (which likely have issues), and be content with reasonable returns.
"for a young investor who's looking at creating consistent wealth. One you have to give time to your investment. Second is you know stay away from things which are looking extraordinary in terms of returns. I think they necessarily will have some issues. And third is you know you have to be satisfied with good reasonable returns."
Correct
The Reliance Growth Fund delivered a 23% CAGR over 30 years.
"The Reliance growth fund which I used to manage just completed 30 years on uh 8th or 9th of October. It delivered 23% kagger returns over 30 years."
Incorrect
Historically, higher FD rates (12%) and bond yields (15%) necessitated higher equity returns (20-25%) to justify the risk. Current lower fixed income rates (6-7%) mean equity return expectations should be adjusted downwards accordingly.
"FD rates were 12%. Tata steel used to give 15% uh interest on their uh that uh whatever bonds You know and that's why you necessarily had to make 20 25% return in equity to take that risk. Now it is 6 7% and therefore you have to compare with that."
Pending
Discipline and a focus on good, moderate returns will lead to success in investing.
"if you are disciplined and if you are very clear about good moderate returns I think you will do well."
Correct
Achieving mid-teen returns (15-16%) is considered acceptable.
"mid- teens you're okay mid- teens is okay 15 16% is fine"
Unrated
Investing in exciting entrepreneurs at an early stage could potentially yield 10x returns.
"if you come across a really really exciting entrepreneur like yourself at an early stage and you invest you might make 10x returns also"
Pending