How the US-China Trade War Impacts the Indian Stock Market and Your Investments ft. Ritesh Jain
Published: 2025-04-17
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-04-17
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Gold's best performance is still to come, as global turmoil is predicted to continue for another four years (until April 2029) before stabilization.
"If someone asks me where are we in gold? Ok? The Best Is Still Ahead of Us. Why? Because there is turmoil happening in the world, okay? Its end game is still four years from here. To stabilize."
Pending
The NASDAQ index will be a loser in the next five to six years (from April 2025).
"NASDC Will Be a Loser."
Pending
The S&P 500 index might not see significant gains for the next five years (from April 2025).
"SMP Might SMP 500 Might Not Go Anywhere for the Next Five Years."
Pending
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will be a winner (outperforming Nasdaq and S&P 500), signifying a shift from the new economy to the old economy over the next five to six years.
"But Dub JS will be the winner. New Economy to Old Economy."
Pending
The Indian Rupee is predicted to stabilize around 83 against the US Dollar, provided oil prices do not increase significantly (e.g., by 30% from 2025 levels), as a sharp rise in oil would negatively impact India's current account deficit.
"in fact I think it will stabilize around 83 levels, okay, but for that I am giving you only one caveat, look at the oil price, if from here in 2025 it increases by 30 because our biggest dependence is on import, that is oil. Right? It can hit our current account deficit very very badly."
Pending
In April 2025, discussions on US tariff actions will be the dominant global conversation.
"Come April 2025 the only thing we are talking about is US tariff actions nothing else is being talked about everywhere US tariff actions are in the news"
Pending
Equity multipliers in India and the US will contract, and stock prices may stagnate, due to a shift towards manufacturing.
"So the multiplier equity multiplier will contract. Stock prices might not go anywhere."
Pending
Economic resources in the US will shift from Wall Street (finance) to Main Street (real economy/manufacturing).
"the resources will shift from Mall Street to Main Street."
Pending
US 10-year bond yields will not rise above 4.75%-5% as the Federal Reserve or US Treasury will intervene.
"between 475 and 5%. I believe the Federal Reserve Bank or the US Treasury will come and announce something where 10-year bond yields don't go higher than that"
Pending
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows will not treat India as a hedge or safe haven.
"So will FI Flos become a hedge here or a safe haven? No FI Flos will come."
Pending
In the coming time, massive winners will emerge in the Indian equity market, primarily outside of large-cap benchmarks (i.e., in mid-cap or small-cap segments).
"you should see that in the coming time, there would be massive winners, those winners are not represented in your benchmarks."
Pending
US policies will cause money to shift from mega-cap tech stocks to other sectors of the economy.
"their policies will move money from mega cap tech to other part of the economy."
Pending
Indian engineering and tech companies are currently receiving, and will continue to receive, massive orders due to global supply chain shifts towards India.
"I know having a discussion with some Indian engineering tech companies and all I am having is massive orders which are coming to India."
Pending
Companies that previously relied on China will clearly have to establish new supply chains.
"They will very clearly have to create another supply chain now."
Pending
India is actively forming middle-power trade blocs with countries like the EU and UK.
"Can India think of forming a middle power trade block with them? Yes, yes, not at all. It is definitely happening."
Pending
In the next few years, India will increasingly engage in bilateral (barter-like) trades, including providing Rupee swap lines to countries like SAARC members for trade.
"in the next few years, you will have butter trades, you have given a swap line to SAARC countries to trade in Rupee"
Pending
India will establish Rupee swap lines with Europe and China, similar to the renewed $5 billion swap line with Argentina.
"we will have a swap line with Europe, we will have a swap line with China, we have just renewed it's a 5 billion dollar swap line with Argentina"
Pending
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will implement three more rate cuts and will not be concerned by global market volatility.
"Three more rate cuts are coming. RBI will not be worried about it."
Pending