Groww TV Live | Will Indian Markets Be Able to Decouple from Global Shocks
Published: 2025-04-04
Status:
Analyzed
Published: 2025-04-04
Status:
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Ultratech Cement's (and cement sector's) results will improve further from Q4 2025 onwards due to picking up demand.
"now when in Q4 onwards we are seeing the pick up of cement demand, then definitely the results will improve further, so buying can definitely be done here."
Pending
Bharat Electronics (BEL) will have good export opportunities in the near future.
"They will get good export opportunities in the coming days."
Pending
Sundaram Fasteners will benefit from long-term EV player contracts and its fastener products in auto components.
"So this type of company will benefit."
Pending
Hindalco's US-based subsidiary, Novelis, will significantly benefit from the current tariff environment.
"I feel that the domestic company which is a subsidiary of Halco will benefit a lot in the US."
Pending
US market expected to see a huge decline today (April 4, 2025).
"All this remains to be seen and there will be a lot of doubt. So correspondingly, a huge decline will probably be seen in the US market today also."
Pending
Market problems and volatility due to headlines are not over and will continue.
"This is what Sudeep is telling us that perhaps this entire problem is not over yet. Headlines will keep coming and market moves will continue due to them."
Pending
The IT sector will likely face problems for a long time due to a softening US economy.
"This problem will probably persist in IT for a long time because there is no direct impact of tariff on IT. IT has an impact on the US economy and the US economy is definitely going to be soft. And if the US economy softens, it can never be good for IT."
Pending
Upcoming IT results commentary and outlooks will show significant uncertainty and a cautious stance from companies.
"So, when the IT results come, the commentary will be there and the outlook of IT companies will be given, I am sure it will be clear that there is a lot of uncertainty and they will all be cautious."
Pending
Credit demand in the financial sector will continue in the coming days.
"deposits will play a very important role in today's times. There is credit demand and there will be credit demand in the coming days."
Pending
The BFSI sector is expected to experience moderate growth.
"I think there will be moderate growth in BFSI."
Pending
The structural change in India's power sector will continue for the next 5-10 years, benefiting all power sector players.
"There has been a structural change in power in India and we believe that this will continue for the next five to ten years. All power sector players will benefit, sometimes more and sometimes less."
Pending
RBI is expected to cut interest rates again in the upcoming policy meeting.
"Interest rates were cut once by RBI. I'm sure cut is coming back next in the policy that is in front."
Pending
Earnings growth in Q4 2025 is not expected to be in very high double digits.
"And going forward, even in quarter four, it is not expected that earnings growth will be around very high double digits."
Pending
Market valuations are expected to contract due to low single-digit full-year earnings.
"So the full year earnings we saw were around low single digits. So valuations are going to contract because of that as well."
Pending
Indian export-oriented companies may benefit in the long run.
"So in that case there is a possibility in the long run. Some of the Indian companies which are export oriented could also benefit."
Pending
Current uncertainty could be a long-term positive for India.
"Secondly, I feel that all this can be a long term positive for India in this environment of uncertainty."
Pending
India will seek more trade partnerships with countries impacted by US trade uncertainty.
"I feel that if this kind of uncertainty increases in the US, then a country like India will also look to partner with a lot of other countries which will be impacted by the US in terms of trade."
Pending
The current global trade situation (US tariffs on other countries) presents a huge opportunity for India.
"I feel this could become a huge opportunity for India."
Pending
The US is unlikely to quickly build enough manufacturing facilities to replace imports from India and other countries.
"But I don't think that such a large manufacturing facility will come up overnight in the US that it can fulfill the huge exports from India and other countries to the US overnight."
Pending
The Indian textile sector is expected to perform very positively.
"I feel that textile is one such sector in India which I think is definitely very positive."
Pending
Increased pace of free trade agreements (Europe, UK) will greatly benefit the textile and textile ancillary sectors.
"I feel that the pace of which will increase, then textile and textile ancillary sectors will be very beneficial."
Pending
Traction will increase in the home building and cement sectors.
"cement, home building theme, I feel that traction will increase here"
Pending
The full positive impact of government capex spending (announced in budget) will be observed this year (2025).
"So the full impact of the government's capex spending, which was announced in the budget, will be seen positively this year."
Pending
Little negativity is expected for Indian auto component companies despite tariffs.
"So I don't see much negativity towards Indian auto component companies."
Pending
Indian companies can increase their export volume to US and Europe due to higher landed costs from other tariff-impacted countries.
"I feel that the landed cost of supplies coming from other countries will be quite high due to tariffs, so that could be incremental benefit to companies like India where they can increase their volume sharing countries like US and Europe."
Pending
The banking sector is not expected to see further significant loan slippages or non-performing assets (NPAs) going forward.
"But going forward, there is no potential for any more slippages or NPAs."
Pending
Banks have the capacity to grow credit at 1.5 times GDP if GDP grows at 6.5-7%.
"We believe that if GDP grows to around 6.5-7 taka, then these banks have the capacity to grow their credit at least 1.5* GDP."
Pending
Bank balance sheets are predicted to double in the next 5 years.
"The balance sheets will double from here in the next 5 years from the year in which we go forward"
Pending
Credit costs in the banking sector are expected to decline.
"Credit costs will remain on a declining trend going forward"
Pending
Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows are expected to increase, leading to significant rerating for banks in the next 2-3 years.
"We are feeling quite confident that going forward the FBI flows will increase and banks being a heavy weight sector, due to FBI flows, I feel that there can be a lot of rerating in these banks in the coming two-three years."
Pending
The aluminium sector is believed to have immense potential for future growth.
"aluminium as a sector, we feel that it has immense potential going forward."
Pending
Cash burn in the quick commerce sector is expected to increase due to rising competition.
"So Cash One I think is going to grow in this."
Pending
Valuation multiples for new-age tech stocks (like Zomato, Swiggy) are unlikely to rerated upwards.
"I don't think there is much potential for the valuation multiples to rerate here."
Pending
The US stock market is predicted to experience a huge decline on 2025-04-04.
"correspondingly, a huge decline will probably be seen in the US market today also."
Pending
Future results commentary and outlook from IT companies will reflect significant uncertainty and caution.
"when the IT results come, the commentary will be there and the outlook of IT companies will be given, I am sure it will be clear that there is a lot of uncertainty and they will all be cautious."
Pending
The BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) sector is expected to experience moderate growth.
"As for the rest of the sectors, I think there will be moderate growth in BFSI."
Pending
Structural changes in India's power sector will continue for the next 5-10 years, benefiting all power sector players to varying degrees.
"There has been a structural change in power in India and we believe that this will continue for the next five to ten years. All power sector players will benefit, sometimes more and sometimes less."
Pending
Cement companies, specifically Ultratech, will see improved results from Q4 2024-25 onwards due to an expected pickup in cement demand.
"now when in Q4 onwards we are seeing the pick up of cement demand, then definitely the results will improve further, so buying can definitely be done here."
Pending
Bharat Electronics is projected to secure good export opportunities within a one-year-plus time horizon.
"They will get good export opportunities in the coming days. Purchases can definitely be made for a one year plus time horizon."
Pending
The RBI is expected to implement another interest rate cut in its upcoming policy announcement.
"inflation is definitely decreasing in the economy. Interest rates were cut once by RBI. I'm sure cut is coming back next in the policy that is in front."
Pending
Overall market valuations in India are predicted to contract due to low single-digit full-year earnings growth.
"So the full year earnings we saw were around low single digits. So valuations are going to contract because of that as well."
Pending
Some Indian export-oriented companies are likely to benefit in the long run.
"So in that case there is a possibility in the long run. Some of the Indian companies which are export oriented could also benefit."
Pending
The current global uncertainty caused by US trade policies could be a long-term positive for India, prompting India to seek faster Free Trade Agreements with Europe and the UK, and to partner with other countries impacted by US trade policies.
"I feel that all this can be a long term positive for India in this environment of uncertainty... I feel that if this kind of uncertainty increases in the US, then a country like India will also look to partner with a lot of other countries which will be impacted by the US in terms of trade."
Pending
India's textile sector is expected to gain a significant advantage and positive momentum due to relatively lower US duties compared to Vietnam, Cambodia, and China.
"textile is one such sector in India which I think is definitely very positive. Because if you look at the kind of duties imposed on Vietnam, Cambodia and China, on a relative basis, they are not that heavy on India. So I think this can be a big advantage for India."
Pending
Faster Free Trade Agreements with Europe and the UK are expected to significantly benefit India's textile and textile ancillary sectors.
"Not only US centric exports in textiles but also if there is a free trade agreement in Europe, if there is a free trade agreement in the UK, I feel that the pace of which will increase, then textile and textile ancillary sectors will be very beneficial."
Pending
Domestic-centric sectors like infrastructure, cement, and home building will see increased traction and a positive impact this year due to the full effect of government capital expenditure spending.
"I feel that traction will increase here because this will be a year where the government knows that there is global uncertainty... So the full impact of the government's capex spending, which was announced in the budget, will be seen positively this year."
Pending
Indian auto component companies are not anticipated to face significant negativity.
"I don't see much negativity towards Indian auto component companies."
Pending
Sundaram Fasteners is predicted to benefit from its long-term contracts with prominent US EV players.
"Not only that they are also having long term contracts for the EV players, prominent EV player US. So this type of company will benefit."
Pending
Indian companies supplying components for US Class 8 trucks are expected to gain incremental benefits and increase their volume sharing with the US and Europe, due to higher landed costs from other tariff-impacted countries.
"I feel that the landed cost of supplies coming from other countries will be quite high due to tariffs, so that could be incremental benefit to companies like India where they can increase their volume sharing countries like US and Europe."
Pending
The Indian banking sector is not expected to see any further potential for slippages or Non-Performing Assets (NPAs).
"But going forward, there is no potential for any more slippages or NPAs."
Pending
Indian banks have the capacity to grow their credit at least 1.5 times the GDP growth rate if India's GDP grows at 6.5-7%.
"We believe that if GDP grows to around 6.5-7 taka, then these banks have the capacity to grow their credit at least 1.5* GDP."
Pending
Indian bank balance sheets are projected to double within the next five years.
"the balance sheets will double from here in the next 5 years from the year in which we go forward"
Pending
Credit costs for Indian banks are expected to continue on a declining trend.
"Credit costs will remain on a declining trend going forward"
Pending
Increased FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investment) flows are anticipated to lead to significant rerating in Indian banks over the next 2-3 years.
"We are feeling quite confident that going forward the FBI flows will increase and banks being a heavy weight sector, due to FBI flows, I feel that there can be a lot of rerating in these banks in the coming two-three years."
Pending
The aluminium sector has immense potential for growth due to the increasing industrial usage of aluminium.
"If I talk about non-ferrous metals first, then aluminium as a sector, we feel that it has immense potential going forward. Because we know that the industrial usage of aluminium is increasing day by day."
Pending
Hindalco's US subsidiary, Novelis, is predicted to benefit significantly from the 25% flat import tariff on aluminium in the US.
"I feel that the domestic company which is a subsidiary of Halco will benefit a lot in the US. In that context, I feel that the valuation is not expensive."
Pending
Cash burn for new-age tech companies like Zomato and Swiggy is expected to increase due to heightened competition, thereby limiting the potential for rerating their valuation multiples.
"Cash One I think is going to grow in this. So from that perspective, I don't think there is much potential for the valuation multiples to rerate here."
Pending