The Job Market Just Broke - But Nobody Wants You to Know
Published: 2025-08-08
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-08-08
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Wall Street is attempting to predict future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
"We don't know if that's going to happen, but that's something the Wall Street is trying to predict."
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If interest rates are not significantly cut in 2025, there's a high probability of President Trump appointing a Fed member in 2026 who will favor aggressive rate cuts.
"So, if the current Federal Reserve Bank administration doesn't cut interest rates very much in 2025, there's a very good chance that President Trump will bring somebody into the Federal Reserve Bank in 2026 who will be more likely to cut interest rates."
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AI is currently replacing thousands of jobs monthly.
"We've been seeing AI replace thousands of jobs now every single month."
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Approximately half of global companies plan to integrate AI, which will likely lead to job reductions.
"And nearly half of all companies around the world have said that they're going to implement some sort of AI into their businesses and will likely reduce some sort of jobs because of the AI."
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A jump in manufacturing jobs is expected due to tariffs, according to Forbes.
"And this is where according to Forbes, we are expected to see a jump in manufacturing jobs because of these tariffs."
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Wall Street anticipates that a job market slowdown will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
"So, the people on Wall Street are saying, hm, if we're starting to see a slowdown in the job market, that's more ammunition for the Federal Reserve Bank to say, that's bad for the economy. We need to stimulate the economy. How do we stimulate? Let's cut interest rates."
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Business uncertainty, particularly due to tariffs, leads to reduced investment in facilities, stores, and R&D, resulting in fewer job opportunities, not due to lack of demand, but due to businesses holding onto cash.
"The reason why that matters is because if a business decides not to invest money into opening a facility to opening a store to opening some research and development that means that people are not getting jobs not because the opportunity is not there but because the business is concerned about uncertainty so they wanted to hold on to that cash."
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The economy is currently not shrinking and spending is not contracting, meaning a recession has not yet occurred, but the possibility exists if these trends continue.
"Are we going to continue seeing an economic slowdown into a negative level where the economy is shrinking? Are we going to see spending go into a negative level where spending is contracting? If so, that would lead us into a recession, but we haven't seen that happen just yet."
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According to Wall Street analysis, negative job market news could lead to lower interest rates, benefiting stocks that perform well in such an environment.
"And so what Wall Street is saying is when we get bad news in the job market, that could create lower interest rates, which could benefit certain stocks that benefit from lower interest rates."
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Historically, economic slowdowns trigger the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, stimulate the economy, and potentially engage in money printing.
"anytime we see an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve Bank comes running, they cut interest rates, they stimulate, and maybe they print money."
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In 2025, significant amounts of business debt taken out at near-zero interest rates during the pandemic are now maturing and will be subject to much higher interest rates.
"Well, here we are now in 2025 and a lot of the debt is now starting to come due, which means businesses that borrowed huge sums of money at essentially 0% interest rates are now starting to see those debts come due, meaning readjust at a much higher interest rate."
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The job market is becoming more challenging. Employers are shifting focus to profitability, efficiency, and productivity, as they can no longer afford to offer excessive compensation and perks.
"It is going to be more difficult. So, understand that shift. Employers are now realizing that they need to be more profitable. They just can't keep offering free money to everybody. Companies are getting more lean. They have to be more efficient and they're going to need more productivity. Period."
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The intended outcome of implementing tariffs is to increase manufacturing jobs within the United States.
"The goal with tariffs is to bring more manufacturing jobs into the United States."
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President Trump has openly expressed a desire to cut interest rates and plans to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in 2026 with someone who will aggressively pursue interest rate reductions.
"President Trump wants to cut interest rates. He's talked about this very openly and he's essentially made it very clear that when Jerome Powell, who is a chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, his term ends in 2026, President Trump wants to replace him with somebody who's much more in favor of cutting interest rates aggressively."
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While AI is expected to eliminate some jobs, it's crucial to understand its broader impact on the business and job market dynamics.
"I do think it's going to take some jobs, but you have to understand how AI is changing that dynamic for the business and job market."
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