This Is When We'll See 5% Mortgage Rates...
Published: 2025-06-16
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2025-06-16
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Mortgage rates are predicted to fall to 5% or lower due to factors of time and a potential recession.
"The short answer is probably yeah. But the follow-up question is when will that happen? I'll show you what I mean. There are two factors that could lead to a 5% mortgage, 4% mortgage, or maybe even potentially lower. And those are more time, and number two is a recession."
Pending
Lower inflation is expected to give the Federal Reserve more confidence to lower interest rates.
"And essentially, when we start to see lower inflation, they're going to feel more confident to lower interest rates, which can also bring mortgage rates lower."
Pending
High and prolonged tariffs are predicted to worsen inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
"If tariffs are high and are longer than expected, then that could make the inflation problem worse, which makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve Bank to lower interest rates."
Pending
Less aggressive tariffs could lead the Federal Reserve to believe inflation is not a major concern and begin cutting interest rates sooner.
"If tariffs are easier than expected, they're less aggressive than expected, then that could give the Federal Reserve Bank more ammunition to say, 'Inflation might not be a problem. Let's start cutting interest rates sooner.'"
Pending
A potential replacement for Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman in May 2026, appointed by President Trump, could lead to interest rate cuts if the new appointee is more favorable to such action.
"But however, in May 2026, Jerome Powell's term is going to end. And that's where he could potentially be replaced by somebody else. And if President Trump replaces Jerome Powell with somebody who is a little bit more favorable to cutting interest rates, that could lead to interest rates being cut."
Pending
A recession is expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
"When the economy is shrinking in a recession, the Federal Reserve Bank will generally cut interest rates as a way to stimulate the economy..."
Pending
The speaker predicts a recession is coming, though the timing is unknown.
"Now, listen, I'm just a random guy on YouTube. I can't predict what's going to happen tomorrow, but what I do know is that a recession's coming. When? Nobody knows."
Pending
Historically, the US has averaged more than one recession per decade over the last century, with 16 recessions occurring in the past 100 years.
"For example, if we take a look at history, we've averaged more than one recession every decade for the last century. In fact, over the last 100 years, the United States has seen 16 recessions."
Pending
The Federal Reserve is inclined to cut interest rates but will base the timing on economic indicators like tariffs, inflation, and the job market.
"The Federal Reserve Bank has the inclination to cut interest rates. When will they do it? We don't know. But they're paying attention to the economy. They're paying attention to tariffs. They're paying attention to inflation. They're paying attention to the job market."
Pending
Weakening job market and signs of a slowing economy will provide the Federal Reserve with more reason to cut interest rates.
"If the job market starts to weaken, it starts to show signs of a slowing economy, that gives the Federal Reserve Bank more ammunition to potentially cut interest rates."
Pending
If tariffs are less problematic and not expected to worsen inflation, the Federal Reserve may feel more empowered to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.
"But if tariffs are no longer a problem, if tariffs come in lower than expected, if people don't believe the tariffs are going to make inflation worse, well, that gives the Federal Reserve Bank more power to say, hm, we're not worried about inflation. We could cut interest rates to stimulate the economy even more."
Pending