This Is When We'll See 5% Mortgage Rates...

"The short answer is probably yeah. But the follow-up question is when will that happen? I'll show you what I mean. There are two factors that could lead to a 5% mortgage, 4% mortgage, or maybe even potentially lower. And those are more time, and number two is a recession."

"And essentially, when we start to see lower inflation, they're going to feel more confident to lower interest rates, which can also bring mortgage rates lower."

"If tariffs are high and are longer than expected, then that could make the inflation problem worse, which makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve Bank to lower interest rates."

"If tariffs are easier than expected, they're less aggressive than expected, then that could give the Federal Reserve Bank more ammunition to say, 'Inflation might not be a problem. Let's start cutting interest rates sooner.'"

"But however, in May 2026, Jerome Powell's term is going to end. And that's where he could potentially be replaced by somebody else. And if President Trump replaces Jerome Powell with somebody who is a little bit more favorable to cutting interest rates, that could lead to interest rates being cut."

"Now, listen, I'm just a random guy on YouTube. I can't predict what's going to happen tomorrow, but what I do know is that a recession's coming. When? Nobody knows."

"But if tariffs are no longer a problem, if tariffs come in lower than expected, if people don't believe the tariffs are going to make inflation worse, well, that gives the Federal Reserve Bank more power to say, hm, we're not worried about inflation. We could cut interest rates to stimulate the economy even more."