ilmscore | Prediction Details
"in fact it might go negative next month because if you go if you go back a year ago in July you can see that it actually still went higher in August and September and so if this doesn't go up the next couple of months then when you look at the year-over-year percentage change it'll actually print a negative number"
By Benjamin Cowen | August 3, 2024 | Pending
From video
The Sahm Rule Recession Indicator has Signaled 00:32:16 - 00:32:37
Interpreted Prediction
The year-over-year percentage change of the Household Survey employment data is predicted to turn negative in August or September 2024 if employment does not increase significantly.

Prediction Details

Topic
US Labor Market

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