ilmscore | Prediction Details
"My guess is it probably will going into the summer. Um, and for the reasons we mentioned, right? Like the the labor market tends to just weaken in the summer. We normally see initial claims go up. We likely will see the unemployment rate go up as we get out into the summer"
By Benjamin Cowen | June 8, 2025 | Pending
From video
Unemployment Rate Stays at 4.2% 00:32:56 - 00:33:11
Interpreted Prediction
The SOM rule recession indicator is predicted to rise again in summer 2025, alongside a likely increase in the unemployment rate due to typical summer labor market weakening.

Prediction Details

Topic
SOM Rule Recession Indicator / Unemployment Rate

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