ilmscore | Prediction Details
"I see there being two potential ends to this story... One is a scenario where the top of the market breaks in the next 3 to 6 months and the whole Market has a major flush down... you get those stocks to Peak around November... you'd see a big fall on the S&P 500 a big fall on the NASDAQ... those stocks will start to get to silly pricing... Nike in the 50s... Starbucks stock fell another 15 20% that would be shocking all... Estee Lauder... breaks 100 and goes to 90 $85 75 that's a shocking a... The second scenario... the top stays fine... but the in the 90% so the rest of the market essentially starts to come back in Q4 2024 and into 2025... if I had to put odds on it I would say it's about a 50/50 on which one of these scenarios plays out... maybe I'd go 6040 unlike a 60% chance this happens versus a 40% chance that happens"
By Financial Education | July 10, 2024 | Pending
From video
We are in a Stock Market Crash | You Just don’t know it yet 00:21:28 - 00:27:50
Interpreted Prediction
The author predicts a 60% chance of a major stock market flush within 3-6 months from July 2024, triggered by big tech stocks experiencing a blow-off top and peaking in Q3 or Q4 2024. This flush would lead consumer stocks like Nike (NKE) to the $50s, Starbucks (SBUX) to fall another 15-20% from its then-current price, and Estee Lauder (EL) to drop to $75-$90. Conversely, there's a 40% chance that big tech remains stable (max 5-10% down), while the broader market, including consumer stocks and the Russell 2000, recovers in Q4 2024 and into 2025, provided the economy improves, inflation lowers, and the Fed cuts rates.

Prediction Details

Topic
Stock Market Outlook

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