"historically when the S&P 500 climbs two years straight it rises the next year 71% of the time the average third-year return is 9.4%"
By Graham Stephan | January 29, 2025 | Incorrect
From video
URGENT: Federal Reserve Cancels Rate Cut, Prices Fall, Tariffs Coming! 00:09:58 - 00:10:06
Interpreted Prediction
Historically, when the S&P 500 climbs for two straight years, it rises the next year 71% of the time, with an average return of 9.4% (for 2025).
AI Evaluation Notes
Evaluated on 2026-04-19
The S&P 500 experienced positive returns in 2023 and 2024, fulfilling the condition for the prediction. While the S&P 500 did rise in 2025, its actual return of approximately 16.4% significantly exceeded the predicted historical average of 9.4%.

Prediction Details

Ticker
Price at the predicted date
6,845.5 USD

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