By Graham Stephan | July 18, 2025 | Correct
Interpreted Prediction
There is less than a 1% chance that Donald Trump will fire Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026.
AI Evaluation Notes
Evaluated on 2026-04-20
As of April 20, 2026, Donald Trump has not fired Jerome Powell, and Powell's term as Fed Chair is set to expire on May 15, 2026. While Trump has issued multiple threats to fire him, the event did not occur, validating the prediction that the likelihood of such an action was extremely low.

Prediction Details

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