ilmscore | Prediction Details
"And this is why I think that it's likely that the investment led growth model will not be radically reformed and therefore the unsustainable growth China has now will continue until it stops naturally either in the form of an economic collapse as it did in the United States, or in the form of several lost decades as it did in Japan. And given that China's financial system is state controlled and therefore it cannot collapse, as the banks did in the United States, most economists I follow now believe that this stagnation scenario is the most likely, which means that the Chinese economy will have a difficult time catching up to the United States in the next few decades."
By Money & Macro | November 23, 2023 | Pending
From video
Economist explains why China's growth miracle is failing 00:28:20 - 00:29:00
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that China's investment-led growth model will not be radically reformed, leading to continued unsustainable growth and most likely a Japan-style stagnation, making it difficult for the Chinese economy to catch up to the United States in the next few decades.

Prediction Details

Topic
China's economy
Target
Will not radically reform its investment-led growth model, leading to continued unsustainable growth and most likely a Japan-style stagnation, making it difficult to catch up to the United States.
Predicted date
in the next few decades

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