ilmscore | Prediction Details
"So, why is this likely to result in a trade war? Well, like I said, the thought process is that tariffs can be beneficial in four main ways. First, they protect US companies from foreign competition. In this case, if imported goods become more expensive, then local companies have a chance to compete with their own products. This leads to number two, increased job growth. When local companies are able to compete, they're likely to hire more workers and sustain a higher employment rate. That leads to number three, higher government revenue. The more jobs hired locally, the more revenue the government can collect in taxes. And even if more jobs aren't created, the government is still collecting additional revenue coming in from the tariffs, which could then result in number four, favorable trade negotiations. Perhaps other countries don't want tariffs on their products because that's going to hurt their own economy. So they negotiate to buy more Americanmade products, resulting in a fair global trade around the entire world."
By Graham Stephan | April 4, 2025 | Incorrect
From video
It’s Over: Trump Just Broke The Stock Market 00:03:18 - 00:04:09
Interpreted Prediction
Tariffs are predicted to benefit the economy by protecting US companies, increasing job growth, boosting government revenue, and leading to favorable trade negotiations.
AI Evaluation Notes
Based on available information, the US trade deficit has not decreased, job growth has been inconsistent, and trade negotiations have not universally resulted in more favorable terms for the US. The overall economic impact has not aligned with the predicted benefits.

Prediction Details

Topic
Economic Impact of Tariffs

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