ilmscore | Prediction Details
"According to the Market Sentiment Blog, who I'm a big fan of, by the way, and I'll link to down below in the description, some of the tariffs implemented don't make any strategic sense. And they gave the example of Taiwan. In 2024, the US imported 116 billion worth of goods and exported 42.3 billion, creating on paper a rather significant trade deficit. But once you begin to zoom out, you'll realize that the United States gave Taiwan $1.5 billion between 1951 and 1965 to build out their economy. We helped them become a leading manufacturer of semiconductor chips that US companies take advantage of. So, it's not out of the ordinary that we buy more from them than they buy from us, especially when they have onetenth the population and 1/3 of the wealth. Or here's another example. Malaysia, their main export is palm oil. Something that we don't even produce and they have no competition whatsoever with the United States. Yet, here we are with a tariff against them."
By Graham Stephan | April 4, 2025 | Pending
From video
It’s Over: Trump Just Broke The Stock Market 00:10:00 - 00:10:56
Interpreted Prediction
Some implemented tariffs lack strategic sense, as illustrated by the US-Taiwan trade relationship (where US aid helped Taiwan develop key industries) and tariffs on Malaysia's palm oil, a product the US does not produce.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction discusses the strategic sense of tariffs, using the US-Taiwan trade relationship and tariffs on Malaysia's palm oil as examples. This is a qualitative assessment, and without specific quantifiable predictions, it is not possible to rate its accuracy.

Prediction Details

Topic
Strategic Sense of Tariffs

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