ilmscore | Prediction Details
"So, historically, why haven't tariffs worked? Look, I really want to give full credit to the market sentiment blog for this example because they really said it best. Think of it like this. Mexico makes a hammer for $2 and sells it in the US for $4. If you made the same hammer in the US, it'll cost $6, so no hammers are made. In response to that, the US puts a 300% tariff on hammers. So Mexican hammers now cost $8. This allows the United States to compete and sell its own hammer for $8, thereby making a profit. But now the US consumer pays $8 for a hammer instead of four. Now, sure, people could certainly argue that in that case, United States companies are now able to make a $2 profit and hire domestic labor that otherwise wouldn't have existed, but the extra cost has to come from somewhere. And usually, that's at the expense of everyday items costing more and the market falling to compensate."
By Graham Stephan | April 4, 2025 | Pending
From video
It’s Over: Trump Just Broke The Stock Market 00:10:58 - 00:11:47
Interpreted Prediction
Historically, tariffs have not worked effectively, as they increase consumer costs (e.g., a hammer costing $8 instead of $4) and lead to higher prices for everyday items, without necessarily benefiting the overall market.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction discusses the general effectiveness and impact of tariffs on consumer costs and the market. To evaluate its accuracy, I need to research the actual effects of tariffs implemented after April 4, 2025, focusing on consumer prices and overall market behavior during the specified period.

Prediction Details

Topic
Effectiveness of Tariffs

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