From video
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted a spike in credit spreads in the not too distant future, causing short-term stock market volatility.
AI Evaluation Notes
Credit spreads, including both high yield and investment grade, generally tightened or remained tight from December 2023 through March 2024, which is the opposite of the predicted spike. Concurrently, stock market volatility was largely subdued, and global stock markets mostly rose during this period, not experiencing the predicted short-term volatility caused by widening credit spreads.
Prediction Details
Target
Spike in credit spreads leading to short-term stock market volatility
Predicted
date
not too distant future