ilmscore | Prediction Details
"Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a recession occurring in the next year from 15 to 25%"
By Mark Tilbury | August 10, 2024 | Incorrect
Gemini flagged this as a quote from another source, so it doesn't count toward author's accuracy metrics, but we still show the evaluation for transparency.
From video
The Stock Market Crash | What You Must Know 00:03:02 - 00:03:06
Interpreted Prediction
Goldman Sachs predicted a 25% chance of a recession in the US economy within the next year (from 2024-08-10).
AI Evaluation Notes
Goldman Sachs predicted a 25% chance of a US recession occurring within the year following August 10, 2024. However, a recession did not materialize during this period. For instance, the US economy experienced negative GDP growth in Q1 2025 (-0.6%) but rebounded with positive growth in Q2 2025 (+3.8%), indicating no two consecutive quarters of negative growth that would signify a recession.

Prediction Details

Topic
US Economy / Recession
Target
A recession occurring (25% chance)
Predicted date
in the next year

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