Interpreted Prediction
Claudia Sahm predicted that the Sahm Rule will not accurately predict a recession in the current economic situation.
AI Evaluation Notes
The Sahm Rule indicator triggered around the target period (summer 2024), signaling a potential recession. However, Claudia Sahm, the rule's creator, publicly stated that despite the trigger, she did not believe it accurately predicted a recession 'this time'. As of December 2025, a recession starting around November 2024 has not been widely confirmed, which aligns with her prediction that the rule would not be accurate in this instance.
Prediction Details
Topic
Target
Sahm Rule will not be accurate this time
Predicted
date
this time (current economic situation)