ilmscore | Prediction Details
"default rates on high yield debt this year has been relatively low, holding under 5% and are expected to drift down below 3% in 2026."
By Graham Stephan | October 20, 2025 | Incorrect
From video
The Banking Crisis Just Got Worse (Defaults Are Rising) 00:10:55 - 00:11:04
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that high yield debt default rates will drift down below 3% in 2026.
AI Evaluation Notes
According to S&P Global, the trailing 12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate rose to 3.8% in September 2025 and 4.2% in December 2025. This indicates that the prediction of default rates drifting below 3% in 2026 was not entirely accurate.

Prediction Details

Topic
High Yield Debt Default Rates
Target
Default rates below 3%
Predicted date
2026

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