ilmscore | Prediction Details
By ClearValue Tax | September 30, 2024 | Correct
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that accelerating interest payments on the US national debt will result in less money for other government programs.
AI Evaluation Notes
Interest payments on the US national debt have significantly accelerated, with outlays for net interest on the public debt increasing by $44 billion (or 12%) in February 2025 alone. In fiscal year 2025, the federal government spent $970 billion on interest payments, which is equivalent to 19% of all federal spending and is explicitly stated to be crowding out other spending priorities. Furthermore, interest payments in 2024 surpassed spending on Medicare, and the federal government now spends more on interest than on defense or Medicare.

Prediction Details

Target
Accelerating interest payments on US debt will lead to less money for other programs
Predicted date
Future (ongoing)

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