Interpreted Prediction
Predicted that $400 billion in revenue from a 10% tariff on imports would not be enough to fund the entire US government.
AI Evaluation Notes
A 10% universal tariff was implemented in the US, effective April 5, 2025. The US government's total spending for Fiscal Year 2025 was $7.01 trillion. Customs duties collected in FY 2025 amounted to $195 billion. The prediction stated that $400 billion from a 10% tariff would not be enough to fund the entire US government, which is very accurate as $195 billion (the actual revenue) or even $400 billion is a small fraction of $7.01 trillion.
Prediction Details
Target
$400 billion from a 10% tariff would not be enough to fund the entire US government
Predicted
date
If implemented
Price at the predicted date
USD