ilmscore | Prediction Details
"Now, even though Bitcoin's price swings like this are not unusual by any stretch of the imagination, seeing a year overyear price decrease like this has so far only happened three times over the last 10 years. In terms of what's causing this, it appears as though we have the perfect storm all happening at the exact same time. First, there's a lot of leverage in the system so that when the price goes down, traders get liquidated, causing the price to fall even further. Second, more and more investors are moving their money away from risk assets and into safer investments, therefore less money is flowing into Bitcoin. And third, Bitcoin has already seen such a large price runup that it makes sense that some people are just taking their profits. This is why I only keep a small portion of my portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF that I dollar cost average into like I would any other stock. And since the price is down this year, I was able to tax loss harvest my big purchases to offset capital gains elsewhere. And then I'll continue buying back in once that 30 days is up. Beyond that though, for purposes of transparency, the Bitcoin ETF, I got to say, has been my worst performing investment of 2025. Even though when you zoom out, the holdings have still done pretty well. But year-over-year, not the best. Unlike this next one, which would be precious metals. Now, I'll admit I'm not a huge precious metals investor. I own a few ounces of gold that I've held on for over a decade. I probably have a few hundred silver coins that I've kept since I was a kid. I've got an ounce of platinum bullion from 1999. That's it. But it has been astonishing to see just how much precious metals have risen over the last year. Like gold passing $4,300 an ounce, silver hitting almost $70, and platinum reaching 2,000. In fact, a lot of you have been asking for me to make an entire video dedicated to silver. So, here's what I have to say about it. In terms of silver, it is driven by fundamentals. Like, there's a lot of industrial use for solar panels, EVs, and electronics that push prices higher. There's economic uncertainty that's causing people to put their money into alternative investments. Combine that with the fact that silver has been on a supply deficit for 5 years straight, and you get a perfect storm for prices to keep going higher. However, even though precious metals have pretty much outperformed everything in 2025, we knew just for inflation, silver is still below its 1980 peak, which would place it closer to $150 to $200 today. So, is it still a good investment? In my opinion, maybe. A lot of people look at what's called the gold to silver ratio, which tracks how many ounces of silver buys you 1 ounce of gold. And when you see an extreme, this might indicate that either gold is overvalued or silver is undervalued. And right now the chart shows that either gold has room to fall or silver has a little more room to grow. Especially because they can't just go and create more silver. In terms of gold though, again historically it pretty much tracks the price of inflation. And again going back to the 1980s when you adjust for inflation, gold is pretty much back to the point it was 50 years ago. So yes, in short bursts you can absolutely make a lot of money in precious metals. But long term, I tend to be a lot more optimistic in equities like stocks. But time will tell. And in terms of my last investment, I have one more fail safe to talk about, and that would be treasuries. Overall, I like to structure my portfolio in such a way where I could take advantage of any opportunity whenever it comes up. That's why I keep about 20% in the mix between tax-free muns and treasuries that earn anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5.3%. This gives me a lot of peace of mind knowing that if the market falls, I have the cash to buy back in. And if it keeps going higher, well, that's fine, too, because I get monthly income. Now, yes, in hindsight, this did make a lot less money than I would have made just investing in the S&P 500, but it does give me a lot of peace of mind knowing that no matter what happens, it'll be totally fine. I guess I just put a pretty heavy price of peace of mind and stability to the point where I'm just playing at this point not to lose, not necessarily to maximize every single dollar every place I can. That's why in terms of what I think about 2026, here's my own analysis. Generally, I do worry that AI valuations are getting a bit out of hand. It seems a bit frothy. There's a lot more speculation than I like to see, but that is not stopping me from buying in because who knows what's going to happen or how long it'll last. or maybe this is just the very beginning. So, I'm not going to try to time the market. Now, in terms of Bitcoin, I allocate about 10 to 15% of my entire portfolio into a Bitcoin ETF. This is an amount that I'm willing to risk, and if it goes to zero, you know what? So be it. But long term, I am optimistic that people are going to be looking for a digital store of value. I have no doubt the Fed will just continue printing more money. And over the next 10 years, as long as I'm not holding on to dollars, I'm happy. Beyond that though, when I zoom out and I look at analyst expectations throughout 2026, the general consensus seems to be that we're not likely to see one asset class explode in price or an imminent collapse that's about to wipe everybody out. But instead, we're probably entering a time of lower, choppier returns, a little more volatility, and fewer easy wins. At the end of the day, the future is likely to reward consistency, patience, and discipline. And I don't think that's a bad thing. I've just noticed that markets tend to punish people who chase headlines, overlever, and try to outsmart everyone else. When in reality, the easiest way to come out ahead is to diversify, keep buying, and don't panic when the market drops. So whether this year turns into the next generational buying opportunity or the one that tested everyone's patience, my strategy is going to be the exact same. Keep buying in consistently, diversify throughout index funds, and no matter what, hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So, with that said, thank you so much for watching. Don't forget to check out Rocket Money down below in the description to track your finances. Now is the best time to start. Really appreciate it. And until next time."
By Graham Stephan | January 5, 2026 | Pending
From video
I'm Selling... Where I'm Investing in 2026 00:09:20 - 00:15:15
Interpreted Prediction
The speaker is long-term optimistic about Bitcoin as a digital store of value, expecting people to seek alternatives to holding dollars given continued money printing by the Fed over the next 10 years. The speaker allocates 10-15% of their portfolio to a Bitcoin ETF, an amount they are willing to risk.

Prediction Details

Ticker
BTC
Initial Price
93,862.93 USD

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