ilmscore | Prediction Details
"In other words, the moment the market stops overpaying for their Bitcoin, everything flips. They stop issuing shares, cuz that would be like selling a dollar of Bitcoin for 80 to 90. You don't want to be selling your Bitcoin at a discount to anyone, right? And if the cash reserves are not enough and they run out, the only way to keep paying those preferred dividend investors is to start selling pieces of the Bitcoin pile. That is the structural comparison that people say looks a lot like a modern version of what could end up becoming the death spiral."
By Andrei Jikh | December 8, 2025 | Incorrect
From video
Banks Are Pushing Bitcoin Into the Death Spiral 00:13:34 - 00:14:11
Interpreted Prediction
If MicroStrategy's stock trades at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings (MNAV below 1), they will stop issuing shares. If cash reserves run low, they will be forced to sell Bitcoin, potentially triggering a debt spiral.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction was that MicroStrategy's stock would decline due to a potential debt spiral if their stock traded at a discount to their Bitcoin holdings and cash reserves ran low. As of January 9, 2026, the stock price is $785.14, a significant increase from the initial price of $183.69, indicating the prediction was inaccurate.

Prediction Details

Ticker
MSTR
Initial Price
183.69 USD

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