Interpreted Prediction
The SAM rule, which indicates a recession is near if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12-month low, has not been triggered yet, suggesting the economy is currently stable.
AI Evaluation Notes
The SAM rule states that a recession is near if the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% above its 12-month low. The US entered a recession in early 2026, therefore the prediction was very inaccurate [cite: i].
Prediction Details
Topic