ilmscore | Prediction Details
"So it says the surveys are generally voluntary and have been exhibiting a downward trend in the number of responses. Survey response rates are important for precision. Higher response rates are typically associated with data of higher quality, which means that lower response rates are typically associated with data of lower quality. And as you can see over the years, response rates have been falling, which means that the data quality has been deteriorating over the years."
By ClearValue Tax | September 30, 2025 | Correct
From video
CPI Inflation Report — Why You Can't Trust it 00:06:14 - 00:06:40
Interpreted Prediction
Falling voluntary survey response rates for the CPI are leading to a deterioration of data quality, as lower response rates are associated with lower precision.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction suggests a deterioration of CPI data quality due to falling survey response rates. While definitively proving a direct causal link and quantifying the precise deterioration is challenging, searching for trends in CPI revisions or analyses of statistical confidence in CPI data since 2025 indicates some concerns about data volatility and potential inaccuracies, thus the prediction is rated as somewhat accurate.

Prediction Details

Topic
Government Inflation Reporting Accuracy

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