From video
Interpreted Prediction
Predicted the 10-year Treasury yield could hit 4.5% or 4.6% after September 2025, if the Federal Reserve lowers rates but investors remain concerned about high inflation.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction was for the 10-year Treasury yield to hit 4.5% or 4.6% after September 2025, but the actual yield on January 2, 2026, was 3.88%. This is more than 50% off the predicted range.
Prediction Details
Topic
Predicted
date
after September 2025, conditional on Fed cut and high inflation concerns