ilmscore | Prediction Details
"So the Fed cut for the third time. Powell actually talked more hawkishly. Paul suddenly indicated of course with Trump's election that there's going to be tariffs and the inflation it's going to be avoided and of course that's sort of when we when we peaked out of course we bumped around a little bit until the Trump inauguration on January 20th but then we quickly sold off because there were no rate cuts coming and we had to wait again until this year September and of course we have a very similar playbook now where when are the next rate cuts when is the next liquidity injection I don't think there is going to be a lot of liquidity injection right now but my my biggest worry is of course that the unemployment rate is above the 12 months moving average and every time this has happened in the past and it only happened now the fourth time in the last 30 years. So it doesn't really happen that often but usually you will get a recession down the line and I think the question really is at one point do we accelerate in that level in that unemployment rate and if it does I think it's a little bit boring also for risk assets you know of course stimulus will come but usually there's first some more pain so that's how kind of how we look at from a macro perspective"
By Coin Bureau | December 14, 2025 | Pending
From video
This Is A Bear Market! Why We Could Be Heading Lower | Markus Thielen 00:18:44 - 00:19:48
Interpreted Prediction
Past instances of the Fed cutting rates for the third time (2019 and 2024) were followed by Bitcoin price drops. The speaker is concerned about rising unemployment and expects potential pain in risk assets before stimulus arrives.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction suggests potential pain in risk assets following a Fed rate cut and concerns about rising unemployment. To evaluate, I need to analyze the Bitcoin price and unemployment rate after December 14, 2025.

Prediction Details

Topic
Bitcoin price prediction

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