ilmscore | Prediction Details
"So I think the biggest tailwind for risk assets is really when we having this you know change in inflation expectations. For example, we came out actually with a really bullish uh report in end of October 2022, literally like a week before FDX blew up. And it was built on the argument that based on our models, inflation in the US should fall from back then from 8% to 3% in a year's time. And of course, Wall Street, basically all the Wall Street economists for 2023 expected a recession because of the permanently high inflation rate as people expected. But of course, inflation came lower. We had this big bull market and that was really like an inflection point. But I think here the question really is I mean you know where's the inflection point? If you're cutting in twice next year or once or three times, it's not you know at the margin it doesn't really make a much difference. And I think that's really the problem with risk assets. they really need this big shift where it's going from, you know, from bearish to, you know, to bullish, from, you know, from hawkish to dovish versus right now we're going, you know, it's kind of like the stop and go. And I think that's why we had this Bitcoin run this cycle as a stopandgo cycle because, you know, the Fed cut three times and they didn't do anything for six months, then they cut for three times, and then maybe don't do anything for six months. So, it's very difficult, I think, for for Bitcoin itself to find its footing because there's not a natural buyer in the market for equities. equities have all these insurance funds, pension funds that are always buying versus Bitcoin. You know, Bitcoin depends more on those micro factors, but the micro factor is not a massive tailwind."
By Coin Bureau | December 14, 2025 | Pending
From video
This Is A Bear Market! Why We Could Be Heading Lower | Markus Thielen 00:24:38 - 00:26:08
Interpreted Prediction
A significant shift in inflation expectations was the catalyst for the previous bull market. The current 'stop-and-go' monetary policy approach by the Fed is hindering Bitcoin's ability to find footing, unlike equities which have natural buyers.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction discusses the impact of the Fed's monetary policy and inflation expectations on Bitcoin's price. To evaluate this prediction, I will search for information on inflation rates, Fed policy changes, and Bitcoin's price movements since 2025-12-14.

Prediction Details

Topic
Bitcoin price prediction

Comments

0 comments

Be the first to share your thoughts.

Like this prediction?

Join to make your opinion count.