ilmscore | Prediction Details
"I think crypton native liquidity you know is a lot more relevant for the crypto market. I think the other aspect is really sort of like hypothetical you know if I mean you know people like to look at for example like M2 before but you know they they confused you know money supply you know with with real liquidity hitting hitting the the crypto market and I think you know when we look at you know onchain data how much money really goes into Bitcoin I think that's a lot more relevant and I think that's kind of like that's kind of the data point we actually feel most comfortable with because I think the the other aspect is sort of Like I think it's almost like um you know a misconception right I mean you mentioned before that also you know the $40 billion that the Fed is going to start buying now in short-term bills but you know to be really QE it needs to be be longer term treasuries right it needs to be 10 years plus to keep really the the longer bond yields anchored because a lot of let's say corporates you know if they make interest rate decisions it's really on the longer terms right it's not really on the short-term borrowing that really that really matters because the short term is already very low right the the twoear is at 3.6. So if the Fed buys more of those or even shorter, it's not going to really I think move the liquidity needle. It's really more more the longer term things."
By Coin Bureau | December 14, 2025 | Pending
From video
This Is A Bear Market! Why We Could Be Heading Lower | Markus Thielen 00:27:40 - 00:28:55
Interpreted Prediction
Crypto-native liquidity (on-chain data, stablecoin supply) is more relevant than traditional macro indicators like M2 for the crypto market. Fed purchases of short-term bills are unlikely to significantly impact liquidity compared to long-term treasury purchases.
AI Evaluation Notes
The prediction discusses the relative importance of crypto-native liquidity and the limited impact of short-term bill purchases by the Fed. To evaluate, it would require analyzing on-chain data and the effects of Fed actions on overall crypto market liquidity and specific metrics like stablecoin supply. This is complex and requires specific data analysis which I am unable to do.

Prediction Details

Topic
Crypto liquidity

Comments

0 comments

Be the first to share your thoughts.

Like this prediction?

Join to make your opinion count.