Fed
Federal Reserve Policy
Topic
65.2%
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 8
Pending: 108
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
95% probability the Federal Reserve will pause interest rates and 4.6% probability they will cut rates during the upcoming FOMC decision.
"And there's a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to pause and a 4.6% probability that..."
Jan 27, 2026
Pending
The speaker predicts that a 'big print' (significant quantitative easing by the Fed) is highly likely to occur in the current year (2026).
"I think it's highly likely it'll come this year."
Jan 9, 2026
Pending
Lowering interest rates through Federal Reserve appointments could benefit the job and stock markets but exacerbate inflation.
"if they can get more people in the Fed to vote for lower interest rates, well, that can then drive i..."
Jan 9, 2026
Pending
President Trump is advocating for lower interest rates.
"President Trump wants lower interest rates."
Jan 9, 2026
Correct
President Trump desires lower interest rates.
"President Trump wants lower interest rates."
Jan 9, 2026
Pending
Lyn Alden expects the US Federal Reserve to gradually expand its balance sheet to support government deficits and prevent a liquidity crisis.
"macro strategist Lyn Alden to describe her expectation that the US Federal Reserve will be forced in..."
Jan 9, 2026
Correct
Central banks are expected to increase liquidity ('turn the money printers back on') in 2026.
"And the macro winds are shifting in our favor as central banks prepare to turn the money printers ba..."
Jan 2, 2026
Pending
The Federal Reserve plans to inject an additional $40 billion per month into the economy through money printing to stimulate growth.
"They committed to an additional $40 billion a month of money printing to inject this money into our ..."
Jan 1, 2026
Incorrect
The Federal Reserve is predicted to continue cutting interest rates in 2026.
"the Fed is in the process of cutting interest rates"
Dec 31, 2025
Pending
The speaker believes the Federal Reserve committee will cut interest rates more aggressively with the new Fed chair starting in May.
"it is my belief that with the new Fed chair coming in May, the committee is going to cut interest ra..."
Dec 29, 2025
Pending
The author believes the Federal Reserve, under a new chair and Trump appointments, will implement new strategies like buying mortgage bonds directly to lower long-term interest rates, which will be a significant catalyst for stocks.
"I believe though the Fed, led by that new chair and other Trump appointments, is going to come out w..."
Dec 29, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve might disregard the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI data when formulating its policies for 2026.
"the Federal Reserve might might well disregard the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI in its policies fo..."
Dec 18, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve might disregard the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data in its policies for 2026.
"the Federal Reserve might might well disregard the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI in its policies fo..."
Dec 18, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve will likely become more dovish over the next three months (by March 2026).
"I think this is a really big of issue that's going to happen over the next um three months and we ma..."
Dec 18, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve plans to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills monthly, a move interpreted by some as a form of QE or market priming for increased liquidity in 2026.
"the Fed would start buying $40 billion in Treasury bills over the next 30 days."
Dec 15, 2025
Correct
Persistently high inflation is predicted to cause the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold for an extended period.
"that persistently high inflation is going to put them on hold for longer."
Dec 15, 2025
Pending
November jobs and inflation data could cause the Fed to maintain its current interest rate policy, preventing further market-boosting rate cuts.
"November jobs and inflation data that could keep the Fed on hold for any more market saving rate cut..."
Dec 15, 2025
Pending
Predicted that the Federal Reserve would buy $40 billion of US Treasury bills within 30 days of December 11, 2025.
"Fed will buy $40 billion of US Treasury bills in the next 30 days"
Dec 11, 2025
Correct
Predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin purchasing US Treasury bills on December 12, 2025.
"Fed will begin purchasing US Treasury bills on December 12th."
Dec 11, 2025
Correct
Predicted that the FOMC rate decision on December 10, 2025, would be the last interest rate cut of the year 2025.
"This is going to be the last possible rate cut of 2025."
Dec 10, 2025
Correct
Predicted the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025.
"I mean, there's a very high probability that it's going to be a 25 basis point raise."
Dec 10, 2025
Incorrect
TJ predicts that the Fed, Treasury, and other institutions will begin printing money (Quantitative Easing).
"Treasury, all of these uh institutions are going to start printing, which when we say printing or qu..."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
A rate cut from the Federal Reserve is predicted to occur in two days (from 2025-12-08).
"rate cut coming in in two days from now."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
The Fed is likely to announce $45 billion in monthly buybacks, starting to roll things back onto the balance sheet.
"the Fed is likely going to announce uh the $45 billion uh basically buybacks, monthly buybacks uh wh..."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy, citing Roger Hallum of Vanguard, reports a prediction that the Fed will start purchasing $15-20 billion in T-bills monthly by the end of Q1 or potentially Q2 2026.
"He expects the Fed to begin purchasing T bills 15 to20 billion a month at the end of the first quart..."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy asserts that Quantitative Easing (QE) is an inevitable future policy change, with only the exact timing remaining uncertain.
"But what they do know, it is going to start. It's just a matter of when, not if."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy predicts that Quantitative Easing (QE) will definitely follow the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
"QT though is now officially over. So what is coming next? Quantitative easing."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy predicts that Quantitative Easing will commence imminently in Q1 2026.
"everybody's kind of coming to the same conclusion soon imminent Q1 2026."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy expects the Federal Reserve to begin buying back $45 billion of debt each month, starting in January.
"Federal Reserve expected to begin buying back all-time high $45 billion of debt each month beginning..."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Easy, citing Mark Cabana of Bank of America, reports a prediction that the Fed will buy $45 billion ($20 billion for natural growth + $25 billion for reserve over-drain) in T-bills monthly for the first six months of 2026.
"He said this would result in the Fed buying 20 billion a month like we said for the natural growth p..."
Dec 8, 2025
Pending
Predicted that the market would react negatively to the Fed's non-committal stance regarding future rate cuts.
"I don't think the market is going to like that."
Dec 7, 2025
Correct
A 7-5 or 8-4 vote split at the FOMC meeting would diminish the influence of the Fed Chair, making individual votes more critical.
"If that happens, we get a 7584 vote. Then all bets are off. Whatever Paul says at the next meeting d..."
Dec 5, 2025
Incorrect
Predicted the Federal Reserve will start printing money and boosting markets in 2026 to stimulate the economy.
"that means that the Federal Reserve Bank wants to start printing money and boosting markets again as..."
Dec 5, 2025
Pending
If the Federal Reserve votes 10-2 or 11-1 to cut rates at their upcoming meeting, and subsequently the Fed Chairman pushes for rate cuts, the federal funds rate could reach 1% by the end of the following year, influenced by a dovish stance aligned with Trump's views.
"If the Fed caves and there's a 102 111 vote or something like that at next week's meeting, they all ..."
Dec 5, 2025
Incorrect
A new Fed chair appointed by Trump in 2026 might initiate quantitative easing.
"And the new Fed chair might have a different opinion on how to approach this and might start quantit..."
Dec 1, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve will cease quantitative tightening (QT) starting in December.
"Starting in December, the Federal Reserve is ending quantitative tightening."
Nov 21, 2025
Correct
If there is no interest rate cut, at least 40% of Fed governors are predicted to dissent.
"If there's no interest rate cut, there's going to be a lot of dissents from Fed governors. I reckon ..."
Nov 19, 2025
Pending
Federal Reserve is predicted to end quantitative tightening on December 1st, 2025.
"We are on the verge of massive exuberance and hope as the Federal Reserve is getting ready to end qu..."
Nov 19, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve is aggressively lowering interest rates and preparing to restart money printing, potentially as early as Q1 2026.
"the Federal Reserve is right now aggressively lowering interest rates and they're getting ready to t..."
Nov 10, 2025
Incorrect
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing monetary policy, with quantitative tightening (QT) coming to an end.
"On the macro front, we have continued easing from the Federal Reserve with Fed Chairman Jerome Powel..."
Nov 7, 2025
Correct
The Federal Reserve is 98% likely to announce interest rate cuts on Wednesday, October 30, 2025, at 2:00 p.m.
"the Fed with a 98% chance, so it's damn near for sure going to happen, announcing rate cuts on Wedne..."
Oct 28, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve is 99% likely to decrease interest rates by 25 basis points.
"99% chance that they're going to decrease rates by 25 bips."
Oct 28, 2025
Pending
Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) predicted to continue for several more months (from Oct 2025).
"the last time Powell spoke about it from what I remember is he made it seem like it was going to hap..."
Oct 26, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve may end its monetary tightening cycle as early as the current month, potentially in conjunction with next week's meeting.
"The tightening cycle is going to end sooner than they thought. They're saying that the Federal Reser..."
Oct 24, 2025
Incorrect
The Federal Reserve will implement 3-4 rate cuts, leading to an inflationary resurgence, which will then cause a 'massive hammer' (e.g., severe monetary tightening or economic downturn) from the Fed approximately a year later.
"I'm thinking three to four rate cuts. A mistake from the Federal Reserve that mirrors what they did ..."
Oct 20, 2025
Pending
Jerome Powell has indicated that quantitative tightening (QT) will end, potentially leading to more rate cuts and increased liquidity.
"Jerome Pal notes that QT will be coming to an end soon. So that opens the door to more rate cuts and..."
Oct 20, 2025
Correct
The Federal Reserve was predicted to implement 25 basis point rate cuts, with more cuts expected in October and December 2025.
"We're going to have the 25 base point cuts. ... there's going to be more cuts that come not only in ..."
Oct 8, 2025
Pending
The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy and revive the labor market through easier monetary policy, in response to the worsening labor market conditions.
"And this is why the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. They're looking at this and they're t..."
Oct 6, 2025
Correct
If the upcoming inflation report shows higher-than-expected inflation, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut will decrease.
"If inflation shows that it's rising a lot more than what is expected, then make sure that you're awa..."
Sep 4, 2025
Pending
There is a 94.6% probability the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates (for the September 17th FOMC meeting).
"there's a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates."
Sep 4, 2025
Pending