Tok
Token Launch Performance
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 33
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
Negative early price action for tokens can create a self-reinforcing downward spiral due to panic and liquidity provider withdrawal.
"Early red candles cause more people to panic. Bad price action spooks liquidity providers. Spreads w..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Early relative strength against Bitcoin is a strong predictor of a token's future performance.
"Tokens that beat BTC in their first couple of weeks trading tend to keep pulling ahead, while those ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Early relative strength against Bitcoin is a strong indicator of a token's future performance, with outperforming tokens likely to continue their upward trajectory, while underperforming tokens are unlikely to recover.
"Tokens that beat BTC in their first couple of weeks trading tend to keep pulling ahead, while those ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Tokens launched immediately after significant Bitcoin rallies (e.g., 35%) are prone to decline, as seen with Space and Time's SXT losing 29%.
"When a token launches right after a big BTC rally, fresh tokens can walk into a hangover. Space and ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Token launches with significant markups for the public compared to private investors typically perform poorly, unless the product has strong market fit.
"Heavy public premiums generally doom price action unless product market fit is undeniably real."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Initia's low initial circulating supply (14.9%) combined with a shallow vesting cliff contributed to its positive performance.
"Initia's in it had the lowest circulating supply at launch with 14.9% but kept the vesting cliff ver..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A sharp decline in trading volume after the first day is a strong predictor of future price declines for a new token.
"And when day one volume dries up faster than a meme coin in a bare market, price usually follows."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Launching a new token immediately after a substantial Bitcoin rally is likely to result in poor performance due to market exhaustion. Conversely, launching when Bitcoin is trading sideways offers a better chance for the new token to gain traction.
"Launching straight after a big BTC rally can wind up sucking oxygen out of the debuting coin, while ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Story Protocols IP demonstrated that significant volume drop-off does not always correlate with price decline, as it maintained strong gains despite an 86% reduction in daily volume from its opening month.
"Story Protocols IP was the true exception. Daily volumes for IP had shrunk 86% from its opening mont..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Zora, despite launching after a milder Bitcoin rally, also experienced a significant price decline, ending the study period with a 66% loss.
"Zora's launch followed a milder but still bullish trend and faceplanted just as decisively going on ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Protocols like IP and WCT performed well by launching when Bitcoin was trading sideways, benefiting from lower expectations and less market scrutiny.
"IP and WCT went live when Bitcoin was chopping sideways. Expectations were muted, the spotlight was ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Caution is advised for imminent token launches if Bitcoin has recently rallied by over 20% and shows signs of exhaustion.
"If Bitcoin has just rallied by 20 plus% and begins to show signs of exhaustion, it's probably best t..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A token launch is more likely to achieve significant gains if Bitcoin is trading quietly and not experiencing major price movements.
"On the other hand, if BTC is dozing and not doing very much, the launch has a cleaner route towards ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A new token showing strong performance while Bitcoin is stagnant creates a highly positive scenario for substantial gains.
"Early outperformance while Bitcoin goes sideways is combustible in the best way."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Zora experienced a significant loss of 66% by the end of the study period, even after a milder Bitcoin rally.
"Zora's launch followed a milder but still bullish trend and faceplanted just as decisively going on ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Tokens with positive returns experienced less severe volume drops, while tokens with significant volume declines generally posted negative returns.
"Tokens that saw positive returns saw lower volume drop off as a group. By contrast, almost all of th..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Pre-launch Bitcoin euphoria increases the probability of a new token's downside performance.
"Euphoric BTC candles before a launch push the odds a bit more toward the downside for the token."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Projects with lower initial circulating supplies (less than 20% at launch) were more likely to end in the green.
"Two out of the four projects that ended in the green had the lowest initial circulating supplies, an..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
IP and WCT successfully launched and gained when Bitcoin was trading sideways, indicating less market pressure.
"IP and WCT went live when Bitcoin was chopping sideways. Expectations were muted, the spotlight was ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Space and Times SXT experienced a 29% price drop within weeks of its launch, following a 35% Bitcoin rally, illustrating the negative impact of launching after a significant BTC surge.
"Space and Times SXT was a clear example of this. It entered the market just after a 35% BTC moonshot..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A new token outperforming Bitcoin while Bitcoin is trading sideways is a highly positive signal.
"Early outperformance while Bitcoin goes sideways is combustible in the best way."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Early weakness in a new token immediately following a Bitcoin spike is a strong negative indicator.
"By contrast, early weakness right after a BTC spike is a flashing red sign."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Tokens with positive returns experienced less volume decline, while tokens with significant volume drops generally posted negative returns and price declines.
"Tokens that saw positive returns saw lower volume drop off as a group. By contrast, almost all of th..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Early underperformance of a new token immediately following a Bitcoin price surge is a strong negative indicator.
"By contrast, early weakness right after a BTC spike is a flashing red sign."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Berachain and Redstone tokens experienced significant volume evaporation (over 70%), which was followed by corresponding price declines.
"Berachain and Redstone's respective tokens both watched their volumes evaporate by over 70% accordin..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A sharp decrease in trading volume (e.g., halving in the first month) even while the price is rising, indicates fading interest and a higher probability of future price declines.
"If that energy drops off sharply though, like if volume falls by half in the first month and the pri..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
If Bitcoin is showing signs of cooling down after a rally and a new token's trading volume has drastically decreased, it is advisable to wait for a more favorable market opportunity.
"If Bitcoin is cooling after a rally and the token's trading volume just fell through the floor, that..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Early outperformance by Bitcoin is a positive sign for new tokens, while early underperformance by Bitcoin often leads to negative price action for new tokens.
"Early Bitcoin outperformance is the cleanest bullish tell, and early Bitcoin underperformance often ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Zora, despite being a significant loser in the initial study period, later achieved a 10x return, suggesting that a poor start does not guarantee long-term failure.
"Zora was one of the biggest losers in the study, but has since gone on to 10x."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
High public premiums for token launches usually lead to poor price action, unless the product has undeniable market fit.
"Heavy public premiums generally doom price action unless product market fit is undeniably real."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Launching a token immediately after a significant Bitcoin rally can be detrimental, whereas a stable Bitcoin market offers a more favorable environment.
"Launching straight after a big BTC rally can wind up sucking oxygen out of the debuting coin, while ..."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
A rapid decline in day-one trading volume typically precedes a price drop for new tokens.
"And when day one volume dries up faster than a meme coin in a bare market, price usually follows."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending
Zora, despite being a major loser in the studied period, later achieved a 10x return.
"Zora was one of the biggest losers in the study, but has since gone on to 10x."
Aug 1, 2025
Pending