US
US Government Shutdown
Topic
N/A
Accuracy
Recent Predictions
Incorrect: 1
Pending: 30
Prediction
Author
Predicted at
Status
Video
A greater than 60% probability of a US government shutdown on Valentine's Day (February 14, 2026).
"a lot of you guys are hearing the news that there's over a 60% probability that tomorrow, Valentine'..."
Feb 13, 2026
Pending
A US government shutdown is highly probable by February 14th, 2026, which is expected to negatively impact markets.
"especially with the idea of a government shutdown happening as soon as February 14th. Probabilities ..."
Feb 9, 2026
Pending
There is a 76% chance of another US government shutdown within the next five days (by 2026-02-14).
"Whoa. 76%. We are going to see another one in the next five days."
Feb 9, 2026
Pending
US government shutdown, expected to start January 31st, is becoming more real.
"It looks like the government shutdown that is expected to actually start January 31st actually is be..."
Jan 25, 2026
Pending
The US government could shut down again by January 30, 2026.
"The current funding bill only reopens the government through January 30th. Damn. So, we could potent..."
Nov 13, 2025
Pending
Polymarket predicts a 65% chance the US government shutdown ends on November 12, 2025, and a 35% chance it ends on November 13, 2025.
"poly market predicts the US government shutdown will end today this is a live look on poly market a ..."
Nov 12, 2025
Correct
The US government shutdown is predicted to end on Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday of the week of Nov 11, 2025.
"We're going to see it on the Wednesday, the Thursday, or the Friday of this week."
Nov 11, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is likely to end this week (November 11-17, 2025), which will allow the market structure bill clarity act to pass.
"But according to Poly Market, which does have a great track record thus far, it likely will, which I..."
Nov 11, 2025
Incorrect
The US government will not open on November 11, 2025.
"We're not going to see the government opening today."
Nov 11, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is predicted to be resolved between November 12th and November 15th, 2025.
"So, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, 82% of poly market and we just saw with the recent election. It doe..."
Nov 10, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is predicted to end by November 15, 2025.
"So we pretty much know that by the 15th of November the government shutdown should actually be over."
Nov 10, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is predicted to end soon from the video's publication date (November 6, 2025).
"I think the government shutdown's about to end soon."
Nov 6, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown will end around December 2025.
"I think the government shutdown ends around December"
Nov 4, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is predicted to end by mid-November 2025.
"the highest probability for the end of the government shutdown I think right now is mid-November."
Oct 31, 2025
Pending
The ongoing US government shutdown is predicted to exceed 35 days and approach 40 days, setting a new record for the longest shutdown in history.
"the government is shut down and we're going on record for one of the longest government shutdowns in..."
Oct 18, 2025
Pending
The government shutdown is predicted to end around Halloween, specifically between October 31st and the first week of November 2025.
"around Halloween is kind of when longer than longer than not. So, kind of between the 31st and the p..."
Oct 15, 2025
Pending
US government shutdown predicted to last until Christmas 2025 or into 2026.
"It looks like honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this went all the way to Christmas, you know, or e..."
Oct 13, 2025
Pending
Trump's side is predicted to concede in the government shutdown due to a falling stock market and pressure from major financial players.
"I think the side that will be will give in in the end will be Trump's side. I think Trump will be th..."
Oct 10, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown (started Oct 1, 2025) is predicted to last a lot longer, potentially extending into 2026 in a worst-case scenario.
"This is going to go a lot longer, folks. A lot longer here. Okay. Now, here's the deal. Okay. Some f..."
Oct 10, 2025
Pending
The speaker predicts the US government shutdown (ongoing at the time of video publication) will be resolved by the end of October 2025.
"which I'm actually leaning towards somewhere in the middle of them resolving this government shutdow..."
Oct 7, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is predicted to be resolved early in the week of the video's publication (early October 2025).
"we are going to see a resolution early this week"
Oct 6, 2025
Pending
The US government shutdown is projected to last up to 29 days, becoming the second longest in history.
"US government shutdown now projected to last up to 29 days would make it the second longest in histo..."
Oct 2, 2025
Pending
In the ongoing US government shutdown (as of Oct 2025), Trump is predicted to be the one who ultimately capitulates.
"I think the side that's going to end up having to give in when it's all said and done will have to a..."
Oct 1, 2025
Pending
The current (as of Oct 2025) US government shutdown is predicted to last 'a long time' due to a lack of incentive for either Trump or the Democrats to capitulate.
"I don't think it makes sense for Trump to capitulate. I don't think it makes sense for the Democrats..."
Oct 1, 2025
Pending
There is an over 80% probability of a government shutdown occurring tonight or tomorrow (from the video's publication date).
"I think it was over 80% on uh poly market that we're going to see government shutdown uh tonight or ..."
Sep 30, 2025
Pending
The US government is predicted to shut down on October 1st, 2025.
"So um the American government shutdown tomorrow um so the 1st of September um it obviously makes eve..."
Sep 30, 2025
Pending
US government shutdown has an 86% probability of occurring.
"US government shutdown which is currently pricing in at 86% probability."
Sep 30, 2025
Pending
Predicted that an agreement for a continuing resolution will be reached at the last possible minute, just before the US government shuts down.
"my belief is that in the last possible minute, right before the government's about to shut down, the..."
Sep 29, 2025
Correct
The author predicts a compromise will be reached regarding the government funding bill by the October 1st deadline, preventing a government shutdown.
"I wouldn't be very surprised that there is some form of compromise given since there's since there i..."
Sep 29, 2025
Pending
A US government shutdown is predicted to occur on Wednesday, October 1, 2025.
"A government shutdown is looming on Wednesday."
Sep 29, 2025
Pending
The US government is predicted not to shut down, as they always find a last-minute deal.
"Are they actually going to shut down the government? I could see this being warned about every singl..."
Sep 23, 2025
Pending
The US government will not shut down by the end of 2025, despite high odds, as they always posture and reach a last-minute deal.
"The base case now assumes that the US government will shut down by the year's end. ... They never do..."
Sep 23, 2025
Pending
If the bill dies in the Senate, the US government might run out of money in August and potentially shut down.
"it's also possible that the bill dies in the Senate which would have its own set of fiscal and polit..."
Jun 6, 2025
Pending