ilmscore | The Stock Market Just Peaked

The Stock Market Just Peaked

Predictions from this Video

Total: 8
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 8
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
During periods of high inflation, the S&P 500 has historically increased by an average of 9.4%.
"during the highest years of inflation since the 1940s and he found that during the highest years of inflation stocks actually wound up increasing by an average of 9.4 percent."
SPX
Pending
Market P/E ratio is historically high, with previous occurrences leading to the Great Depression and the dot-com bubble, suggesting a potential for a stock market crash.
"The p e ratio of the market is the third highest it's ever been in history. The last two times it's been this High we've had the Great Depression and the 2001.com bubble."
Stock Market Crash
Pending
More S&P 500 companies are issuing negative earnings guidance than positive guidance, a trend not seen since Q2 2020, indicating potential market weakness.
"93 S P 500 companies have issued earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of those companies 56 released negative earnings guidance and 37 had disclosed positive earnings guidance that means more S P 500 companies are issuing negative guidance over positive of guidance for the first time since the second quarter of 2020."
Stock Market Crash
Pending
The Buffett indicator shows market value is significantly higher than historic average relative to GDP, and the fear and greed index is trending towards fear, suggesting potential market overvaluation and caution.
"The Buffett indicator suggesting that the market value is 59 higher than the historic average compared to GDP at the same time the fear and greed index is moving towards fear."
Stock Market Crash
Pending
NASDAQ projected a 70% chance of a scenario where stocks would flatline in the near future.
"NASDAQ said that there was a 70 chance of a base case coming soon where stocks just flatlined."
Stock Market
Pending
Historically, the first interest rate hike has led to an average stock market increase of 7.3% over the subsequent 12 months.
"Since 1994 it was found that the first interest rate hike actually LED stocks to increase an average of 7.3 percent in the following 12 months."
Interest Rate Hikes
Pending
Container shipping costs from China to the US West Coast have decreased by 30%, and idle containers at the Port of Los Angeles are down 40%, indicating supply chain normalization.
"container shipping costs from China to the U.S West Coast have retreated 30 percent from their fall Peaks and the number of containers sitting idle at the Port of Los Angeles is down 40 percent since early November."
Supply Chains
Pending
An investment strategy focused on the top five companies by market cap (Amazon, Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft) historically provided a better risk-adjusted return of 15.4% compared to the S&P 500.
"The growth portfolio associated with the top five companies by market cap including Amazon Apple Google Tesla and Microsoft gave a better risk-adjusted return when compared to the S P 500 at a whopping 15.4 percent."
Investment Strategy
Pending