The End Of Retirement - Major Changes Explained

"current market conditions may require an even more conservative approach and that the combination of eight and a half percent inflation with high stock and bond market valuations makes it difficult to forecast whether the standard playbook will work for recent retirees"

"gen z is forecast to take out a market with higher unemployment lower earnings and higher taxes to pay off the pandemic related deaths"

"the real returns of the stock market which is just a really fancy way of saying after taxes and after inflation comes to an average of five percent a year on stocks and 3.6 on bonds"

"that gives us an annualized net return of just three percent a year in the stock market according to this calculation and it's even lower at two percent if they hold a portfolio of 30 bonds"

"he says that nobody's gotten by with the kind of money printing now for a very extended period of time without some kind of trouble we're very near the edge of playing with fire his warning is that the stock market may see lower than average growth over the next decade simply because we've already seen such a huge return"

"2012 through 2021 had an average annualized return at 12.62 percent we could extrapolate that based on past performance the next 10 years might not be so good"

"bill bengan went on record to say that the four percent rule was treated too simplistically and that it took into account the worst possible case scenario first because of that he said that historically when times are good the average safe withdrawal rate has turned out to be about seven percent and at points it's reached as high as 13"

"in early 2022 he changed the four percent rule to the five percent rule meaning you could spend an extra one percent every single year until eventually you hit the uh the big like button in the sky"

"morningstar recently came on record to say that if inflation which is at a 30-year high remains at or near today's level for an extended period even a reduction to 3.3 percent could prove optimistic"

"a 20-year holding period has never once produced a negative result adjusted for inflation and the worst result ever realized was a half a percent return over 20 years"

"over a 30-year rolling period the worst-case scenario was an 8 annual return before inflation and the best case was nearly 15"

"given all the data that we have available spending three and a half to four and a half percent of your money every single year should be okay as long as you're good with being flexible and cutting back when needed"

"it's okay to spend three to four and a half percent of your portfolio annually as long as you're okay cutting back in the event the market goes down inflation remains high and you don't make as much as they say you will in wall street bets"