Getting Fired | Why 20% Of Workers Could Lose Their Job
Published: 2022-08-17
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2022-08-17
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US unemployment rate historically has not stayed below 3.5% for longer than a year since the 1950s.
"since the 1950s the unemployment rate has never held below three and a half percent for more than a year"
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The transcript suggests a potential imminent market downturn leading to job losses.
"are we barreling towards a market where people are about to lose their jobs"
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Historically, peak inflation has been followed by an increase in job losses.
"every single time inflation peaks job losses rise"
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Several large companies, including JP Morgan, Tesla, and Amazon, are initiating significant layoffs.
"we've seen quite a few of the largest companies on a mission of letting people go including jp morgan who recently initiated a mass layoff affecting up to a thousand of their employees or tesla who began warning that their work from home employees would be the first to get caught or amazon who just shrunk their staff by a hundred thousand people"
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Netflix, Google, Robinhood, Walmart, and TikTok are also experiencing or implementing workforce reductions.
"netflix who continues losing customers google who warned about bloated staff and concerns about productivity robinhood who just reduced their workforce by nearly 25 walmarts who's adjusting to lower profits and less revenue even the company you would never expect tick-tock"
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Companies like Oracle, Microsoft, and Ford are laying off employees despite reporting increased revenue and profits.
"oracle downsized their staff after reporting that revenue is up by five percent microsoft laid off a thousand employees while reporting two percent higher profits and ford is letting go of nearly ten 000 employees when net income was up almost 20"
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Despite current strong job growth numbers (528k in July) and historically low unemployment, there are underlying concerns.
"the united states added 528 000 jobs in july the unemployment rate is currently at the lowest it's been since prior to the pandemic and the best it's been since 1969"
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Consumer spending, particularly in retail, is robust, with overall sales up 11.2% year-over-year, excluding luxury goods.
"people are still spending a lot of money retail sales for example rose one percent in the month of june which is 11.2 percent higher than the year prior and spending was higher across all industries except for luxury items"
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Demand for services like Airbnb, food delivery, travel, and airlines is high, with American Express reporting record spending.
"there's also an abundant demand for airbnbs food delivery travel and even airlines in fact american express saw their highest spending month since prior to the pandemic"
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The current low unemployment rate (below 3.5%) is unsustainable in the long term, based on historical patterns since WWII.
"besides the 1950s after world war ii the unemployment rate has never been able to sustain a level below three and a half percent for more than a year"
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Historical economic downturns have often followed periods of low unemployment and low inflation, driven by factors like high inflation, rising interest rates, and asset bubbles.
"when unemployment was at its lowest in 1953 high inflation caused a recession that more than doubled the unemployment rate the same occurred in 1958 1969 when interest rates were increased the 1970s and 80s recession was also caused by an era of high inflation high unemployment and rising rates while the 1990s saw a time of restrictive federal reserve policies 2000 saw the burst of the dot-com bubble 2008 sent us into the great financial crisis"
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There is a historical correlation where declining inflation is often followed by an increase in unemployment.
"as inflation slows down unemployment historically goes up"
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2022 has seen the highest number of company layoffs since the pandemic's peak, with over 65,000 individuals affected.
"new companies are now reporting the highest level of layoffs since the peak of the pandemic with over 65 000 let go in 2022 alone"
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Jobless claims are rising, indicating a slowdown in the job market.
"the job market is beginning to slow down with jobless claims beginning to rise to the highest level since november"
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Job security confidence among tech workers is extremely low, with only 9% feeling secure.
"only nine percent of tech workers feel confident about their job security right now"
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The net job gains reported are primarily comprised of low-paying, part-time service sector positions.
"all of the net 528 000 jobs added were part-time jobs most of them low-paying service sector jobs"
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When accounting for inflation, actual consumer spending has declined across various industries.
"when you adjust for inflation real spending is actually decreased across a multitude of industries"
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Businesses are adopting a pessimistic outlook on future growth and increasing expenses, leading them to proactively lay off workers.
"companies are taking on a much more pessimistic approach in terms of future growth slowing demand and higher expenses so they're taking an abundance of caution by laying off their workers now before they absolutely have to"
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Companies are currently focusing on workforce optimization and cost reduction to ensure profitability in a changing economic landscape.
"this appears to be the time where businesses are trimming the fat optimizing their workforce adjusting to shifting conditions and making sure that they're in the best place possible to post a profit"
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The current economic adjustments, including layoffs, could enable the Federal Reserve to successfully control inflation, leading to price decreases.
"this is how the federal reserve could finally tame inflation and with less money chasing a higher quantity of goods prices can finally begin to decrease"
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Historically, low unemployment has coincided with loose monetary policy that encourages business overexpansion, followed by a sharp rise in unemployment when policy tightens.
"unemployment is always so low at the peak of the market with loose monetary policy that allows businesses to over expand and then as soon as that reverses unemployment skyrockets back up"
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Businesses are proactively cutting staff and conserving cash to ensure operational efficiency in anticipation of future economic challenges.
"businesses are preemptively laying off their workforce and preparing for a time where maybe they will need extra cash on hand to operate more efficiently"
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Individuals should focus on becoming indispensable in their roles and avoid complacency to maintain job security.
"make yourself as indispensable as possible now is absolutely not the time to be complacent"
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Striving for exceptional performance in one's job is crucial for long-term job security.
"making sure you're so good at what you do that they couldn't possibly let you go"
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Google is signaling a shift towards a more entrepreneurial, urgent, and focused work environment, especially in challenging economic times.
"we need to be more entrepreneurial working with greater urgency sharper focus and more hunger than we've shown on sunnier days"
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The job market has moved beyond rewarding mere presence, emphasizing performance and results.
"we're no longer in an environment where people are rewarded for simply showing up"
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Current strength in the job market is not a guarantee of future stability.
"just because the jobs market is strong right now doesn't mean it always will be in the future"
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