The Next Great Depression - How To Prepare
Published: 2022-09-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2022-09-23
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Michael Bur predicts further decline in the S&P 500.
"Michael Bur just went on record to say that the S&P 500 still has much more room to fall."
Pending
An economist predicts a long and severe global recession and significant historical economic change.
"The Dr. Doom economist believes that we're in for a long and ugly recession and the global economy is on the verge of historical change."
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Goldman Sachs forecasts zero economic growth for China in 2023.
"Goldman Sachs estimates that China will see zero growth in 2023."
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The Federal Reserve anticipates rising unemployment as a consequence of combating inflation.
"even the Federal Reserve predicted rising unemployment than its path of destroying unsustainable price increases."
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Analysts predict an earnings recession, with companies expected to report declining profits over the next few years.
"most analysts are calling for what's known as an earnings recession, while companies report lower profits than expected throughout these next few years."
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Goldman Sachs estimates a potential further 10% decline in the stock market, aligning with a typical 30% bear market decline during a recession.
"Goldman Sachs takes the approach that generally bare markets decline about 30% when combined with the recession, meaning we have another 10% to fall if they're correct."
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BlackRock anticipates new market lows due to reduced consumer demand and a prolonged hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
"Black Rockck also mirrors their thoughts, noting that a slowdown in consumer demand and a hawkish for longer Fed will spark new lows."
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Jerome Powell predicts a 10-20% correction in the housing market.
"Jerome Powell warned that the housing market is probably headed towards a correction of 10 to 20%."
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Specific housing markets are experiencing declines of up to 10%.
"many markets are seeing a decline of up to 10%."
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Treasury bonds are offering a guaranteed 4% annual return.
"if you were to go and buy a Treasury bond fully backed by the US federal government, they're paying you a guaranteed 4% return if you hold it for one year."
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Bond returns are expected to increase further as interest rates rise, but the exact level is uncertain.
"with interest rates increasing even further, it's possible that bonds would offer an even higher return than they're paying right now. So, it's still too early to tell where they might level off."
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The average investor's 30-year returns are one-tenth of the overall market returns.
"they found that the average investor over 30 years makes just onetenth of the return of the overall market."
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Markets typically take 1-2 years to reach a bottom and an additional 2.5 years to recover.
"markets on average take 1 to two years to bottom and 2 and 1/2 years to recover."
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Investing for longer periods significantly reduces the risk of loss, with a balanced portfolio having a 99.8% chance of profitability over 15 years.
"every single study shows that the longer you invest for, the lower your chances of losing money with a 99.8% likelihood of a balanced portfolio being profitable over a 15-year time frame."
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The speaker expresses long-term confidence in the stock market, viewing short-term fluctuations as insignificant.
"I'm a firm believer in the stock market over the next few decades and whatever happens between now and then is simply white noise."
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Commercial real estate returns are expected to improve through price reductions.
"commercial real estate returns have to increase by lowering the purchase price."
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A building previously valued at $1 million with a 5% return would be valued at $770,000 with a 6.5% return due to increased interest rates.
"now that interest rates have gone from 3 to 6%, that exact same building might have to sell for a 6.5% return, which would be valued at $770,000."
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The speaker believes commercial real estate has not fully accounted for recent interest rate hikes, presenting a potential investment opportunity.
"I don't think the commercial real estate has yet fully priced in these rate hikes. And that is an opportunity that I'm looking very closely at."
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Michael Bur predicts a cycle of inflation decline, followed by increased spending and a subsequent resurgence of inflation that could last up to a decade.
"inflation will decline. People will celebrate by spending more money, and then inflation will reappear for sometimes as long as a decade."
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