How To Use The 2023 Market Crash To Get Rich
Published: 2022-12-19
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2022-12-19
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Some analysts predict a bull market in 2023.
"some analysts believing that we could soon be in for another 2023 bull market"
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Stocks are considered expensive by historical standards and are predicted to fall another 20 percent.
"stocks are still not cheap by historical standards and will likely fall back down another 20 percent"
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The worst of the market downturn may be over once risk-free interest rates exceed five percent.
"the worst would be behind us once risk free interest rates are above five percent"
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Historically, only a small percentage (6%) of actively managed large-cap funds have outperformed the S&P 500 over a 20-year period.
"only six percent of actively managed large cap funds managed to beat the S P 500 over a 20-year period"
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Companies in the top half of the market (larger market cap, shares outstanding, cash flow, sales) are predicted to provide nearly double the returns of the S&P 500.
"he found that under those conditions companies gave close to double the return of the S P 500"
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Stocks with high Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to underperform the market, while those with low P/E ratios are predicted to perform better.
"all stocks with a high p e ratio performed substantially worse than the market whereas low p e ratios tend to do much better"
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The average stock's lifespan is predicted to be seven years, with an overall loss even when dividends are included.
"the average stock only traded for seven years and lost money"
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A very small number of stocks (1000 out of 26,000 analyzed since 1926) have been responsible for all market growth, with 86 stocks contributing over half of the profits.
"only a thousand led to all the growth that we saw in the stock market since 1926 and only 86 stocks out of those thousand were responsible for more than half of the profits"
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Only 4% of stocks have historically generated higher returns than one-month U.S. Treasury bills.
"only four percent of stocks actually make more money than the average return of one month treasury bills"
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A market bottom is not expected to occur until the yield curve is no longer inverted.
"the bottom has never occurred until the yield curve is non-inverted"
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Bear markets historically do not bottom without panic selling, indicated by a VIX (volatility index) reading of 45 or higher.
"we do not see a bear Market bottom without Panic selling similar to what was seen in 2001 and 2020. Historically no pair Market has ever bottomed without a fixed reading of 45 or more"
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A put-to-call ratio of 1.8 indicates retail capitulation, suggesting that the worst market conditions are likely already priced in.
"when the stock market sees 1.8 puts for every call that's a sign of retail capitulation where the worst is probably already priced in"
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A market bottom is indicated when less than 20% of companies are trading above their 200-day moving average.
"when less than 20 percent of companies are trading above that 200-day moving average the market is mostly bottom"
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JPMorgan anticipates that the market has largely priced in a recession, given the 20% decline in stocks.
"JPMorgan for example believes that the recession is mostly priced in with stocks having already declined 20 percent"
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The stock market tends to move ahead of earnings forecasts, suggesting limited further downside once stocks have already fallen significantly.
"they also found that the market moves ahead of earning forecasts meaning there's a limited downside once stocks have already fallen"
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Goldman Sachs predicts that a sustained stock market recovery requires interest rates to peak and valuations to reflect a recession.
"Goldman Sachs on the other hand believes that a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting a recession are necessary before any sustained stock market recovery can happen"
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Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 to remain relatively unchanged over the next year.
"their view is that the S P 500 is probably going to remain relatively unchanged over the next year"
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