ilmscore | The 2023 Recession Keeps Getting Worse

The 2023 Recession Keeps Getting Worse

Predictions from this Video

Total: 11
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 11
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The US government had limited funding until January 19th, 2023, with national debt exceeding $31 trillion.
"the United States is quickly running out of money with the national debt now exceeding more than 31 trillion dollars in fact the United States only has enough funding to operate until this upcoming Thursday January 19th"
US Government Funding
Pending
The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the US government can borrow to cover its obligations.
"the debt ceiling is the maximum amount of money that the US government is able to borrow to pay for all of its obligations"
US Debt Ceiling
Pending
The US has a AAA credit rating, indicating it is the safest country to lend money to.
"when it comes to the United States it's almost like a person having a perfect 800 credit score and getting the best interest rates except here the US has what's called the AAA rating meaning they are the safest country to lend money to"
US Credit Rating
Pending
The US debt ceiling has been raised approximately 100 times since 1917, indicating a recurring need to increase it to match spending.
"the debt ceiling's actually been raised a hundred times since 1917 or basically it has to be increased every single year just to keep up with spending"
US Debt Ceiling Increase
Pending
A prolonged US government default could lead to 6 million job losses, a 9% unemployment rate, a $15 trillion stock market sell-off, and permanently higher interest rates.
"in a prolonged default scenario since six million jobs would be lost driving the unemployment rate up to nine percent the resulting stock market sell-off would raise 15 trillion dollars in household wealth in the short term interest rates would spike and in the long term they would never fall back to pre-default lows"
US Government Default Impact
Pending
Government shutdowns are common, with 21 occurring since 1982, and 10 of those leading to worker furloughs.
"the government begins shutting down essential services to conserve its resources and surprisingly it's a lot more common than you would expect like in 2020 it was said that the government based a shutdown 21 times since 1982 and 10 of those times resulted in workers being furloughed"
US Government Shutdowns
Pending
Historical debt ceiling standoffs have caused short-term stock market drops (e.g., 20% in 2011, 4% in 1995-96, 6% in 2013), followed by recovery after resolution.
"the worst government standoff so far in 2011 which resulted in a lower credit rating caused the markets to drop almost 20 percent in total until a resolution was drawn then again from 1995 to 96 the S P 500 dropped about four percent 2013 saw other six percent drop and over the last 10 years we could see that there's typically short-term hesitation in the market until it's eventually raised and then the stock market goes right up alongside with it"
US Stock Market Reaction to Debt Crisis
Pending
The US had until June to resolve the debt ceiling issue, utilizing extraordinary measures in the interim.
"we have until June to sort things out with the extraordinary measures in place"
US Government Debt Ceiling Resolution Timeline
Pending
Examples of wasteful US government spending include: $1.3M to study cooling beer, $3M to study hamster fighting, $2.5M on an ineffective Super Bowl commercial, $100M on unused plane tickets, and $500K to maintain an unused self-cleaning toilet.
"in 2015 the government spent 1.3 million dollars to study how to keep beer cold in hot weather three million dollars also went to studying hamster fighting when given anabolic steroids in 2010 the U.S Census Bureau spent two and a half million dollars for an ineffective Super Bowl commercial or there's a hundred million dollars spent on unused plane tickets and this one is absolutely absurd five hundred thousand dollars was spent maintaining a self-cleaning toilet that hasn't been flushed since 2017."
US Government Spending
Pending
The National Science Foundation spent $75,000 to capture Anole Lizards and blast them with a leaf blower.
"the National Science Foundation paid 75 000 for researchers to capture 47 Anole Lizards in the Turks and Caicos and then blast the animals with a leaf blower"
US Government Spending
Pending
The debt ceiling situation has become a political cycle of getting close to default without actually defaulting, with one side eventually conceding. This pattern is expected to continue.
"unfortunately the entire situation has devolved into a political back and forth to various spending agendas and unfortunately they're going to get as close as they can to defaulting without actually defaulting until eventually one side concedes this is brought probably just going to be a continuing pattern over and over and over again until one day it's somebody else's problem"
US Debt Ceiling Political Standoff
Pending