The 2023 Recession Just Got...Cancelled?
Published: 2023-01-27
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-01-27
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Some analysts predict that the US may avoid a recession, despite previous indicators.
"analysts are now saying that there's a chance there won't even be one [a recession]."
Pending
According to a San Francisco Fed paper, the US is not in danger of recession, allowing the Fed to continue raising interest rates to combat inflation.
"we are not currently in danger of a recession and the Federal Reserve can continue raising interest rates higher for longer than expected until inflation subsides"
Pending
Goldman Sachs predicts San Jose, Austin, Phoenix, and San Diego could experience housing market declines of over 25% in 2023, similar to the 2008 crash.
"Goldman Sachs shared their thoughts on the four U.S cities that could see a 2008 housing crash throughout 2023... San Jose, Austin, Phoenix and San Diego will likely see Peak to trough declines of more than 25 percent"
Pending
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10% national decline in home prices before recovery begins in 2024.
"on a national basis we could see a decline of 10 percent before growth begins to recover in 2024"
Pending
Morgan Stanley predicts a 4% housing price drop, Wells Fargo forecasts 5.5%, and Interactive Brokers anticipates over 20% decline.
"Morgan Stanley anticipates a four percent drop from stagnant demand Wells Fargo sees declines of five and a half percent and interactive brokers is calling for more than 20 percent"
Pending
Housing markets that experienced the largest price increases are expected to see the largest price decreases.
"the areas that saw the biggest increases will also be the ones that see the biggest decreases"
Pending
There is interest among members of Congress to extend statewide rent control policies across the entire country.
"members of Congress have already expressed interest in extending this [statewide rent control] throughout the rest of the country"
Pending
A bill is being considered in the House of Representatives to abolish the IRS and income taxes, replacing them with a 30% consumption tax.
"there's a brand new bill that aims to eliminate it [the IRS] altogether... the house is scheduled to vote on a bill that would abolish the IRS and income taxes entirely in exchange for a flat 30 consumption tax"
Pending
The proposed 30% consumption tax is logistically challenging to implement due to state-level administration and collection responsibilities for sales tax.
"logistically let's be real this would be a nightmare to implement because each state has the responsibility for administering collecting and remitting the sales tax to the treasury which would be almost impossible"
Pending
The bill to abolish the IRS and income taxes is unlikely to pass.
"realistically there's no way that this is going to pass"
Pending
There is a possibility of achieving a 'soft landing' for the economy, as targeted by the Federal Reserve.
"there is a chance that we could see these soft Landing the Federal Reserve has been aiming for"
Pending
Michael Burry's tweet suggests a potential 30% further decline in the stock market, drawing parallels to the 2001 dot-com bubble's rebound before its crash.
"Michael burry on the other hand posted a rather ominous tweet of the 2001.com bubble showing that the prior rebound was eerily similar to what we're seeing today before dropping another 30 percent"
Pending
Further layoffs, declining consumer spending, and prolonged interest rate hikes are anticipated.
"more layoffs are likely I wouldn't be surprised if spending continues to decline and we may very well see more rate hikes longer than expected"
Pending
The sustainability of the current stock market rally remains uncertain, with the possibility of it being a temporary rise followed by a decline.
"only time is going to tell whether or not the current stock market rally is sustainable or if it's just another run-up that's going to decline just as fast"
Pending
Treasuries will soon be available for direct purchase through an app, simplifying the process compared to the current TreasuryDirect website.
"they're also coming out very soon with treasuries that you could buy directly from the app which means you don't have to go through the old treasury direct website which is extremely confusing"
Pending