ilmscore | Why America Is Going Bankrupt

Why America Is Going Bankrupt

Predictions from this Video

Total: 9
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 9
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) has remained sticky at around 5.5-5.7% year-over-year since the beginning of the year, contrary to economist expectations.
"even though this might not sound like a lot this has stayed the exact same since the beginning of the year even despite rapid rate increases I mean just keep in mind that in April core CPI was at 5.6 percent in March it was five and a half percent in February it was 5.6 percent in January it was 5.7 percent you get the idea basically this metric is a lot stickier than economists were expecting"
Core Inflation
Pending
Interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer due to sticky core inflation.
"because of that unless this comes down rates are probably going to have to stay higher for longer"
Interest Rates
Pending
Shelter costs contributed over 60% to the monthly core inflation increase in April. However, with rents declining, housing inflation numbers are expected to fall by mid-to-late 2023.
"the cost of shelter increased by 8.1 percent in April which is only down from 8.2 percent in March or in other words this contributed to more than 60 percent of the monthly increase in the index for all items excluding food and energy which is a big deal fortunately though the good news is that housing only takes into account existing costs like the leases that were signed a year ago and not necessarily where the market is today and with rents beginning to decline we could start to see these numbers fall towards the mid to end of this year"
Housing Prices
Pending
A prolonged US debt ceiling standoff could lead to a nearly 20% drop in stock prices, a contraction of over 4% in the economy, and the loss of over 7 million jobs.
"Moody's Analytics predicts that in a prolonged standoff stock prices would fall by almost a fifth and the economy would contract by more than four percent leading to the loss of more than 7 million jobs"
US Default
Pending
The speaker believes a US default is unlikely because the consequences would be too severe, and no political party would want to be responsible for the first-ever default.
"my opinion is that it's probably not since defaulting would be significantly worse than agreeing to spend more or less money and I think we could probably say that no one is actually daring enough to be the one to cause the first ever default in the United States even though they might pretend like it I doubt they would actually go through with it"
US Default Likelihood
Pending
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger believe the 'incredible period' for the US economy is ending, evidenced by their sale of $13 billion in stock for cash.
"Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger said that they had sold 13 billion dollars worth of stock for cash while making it clear that the incredible period for the US economy has been coming to an end over the last six months"
US Economy Outlook
Pending
Three major concerns for the US economy that could trigger a tailspin are China, the banking sector, and commercial real estate.
"there are three main concerns for the U.S economy that would be China the banking sector and Commercial Real Estate all three could be enough to send the economy into a tailspin"
US Economy Risks
Pending
The 10 largest stocks have driven nearly 90% of the S&P 500's returns this year, indicating a potential weakness in the broader market with the other 490 companies underperforming.
"Forbes mentioned that the 10 largest stocks are responsible for nearly 90 percent of the S P's return earned this year will the other 490 companies underperform which is the weakest it's ever been and concerning that the market might not be as strong as people think it is"
S&P 500 Performance
Pending
Expectations for market returns should be tempered, with the speaker and Vanguard predicting a more sustainable 3-5% annual return over the next decade, rather than the recent 15-30%.
"I tend to believe that it's a good idea to temper your expectation for the market over these next few years I mean assuming we'll continue to see these 15 to 30 percent Returns on an annual basis just isn't sustainable and this is also mirrored by Vanguard whose Outlook ranges for an average of three to five percent annual returns so for the next decade"
Market Returns Outlook
Pending