Why Home Prices Haven’t Crashed...Yet
Published: 2023-05-25
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-05-25
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Over 40 US cities are predicted to experience a housing market downturn within the next 12 months.
"more than 40 cities poised for a potential downturn over these next 12 months"
Pending
In contrast to declines in Seattle (-7.5%) and San Francisco (-10.3%), Miami saw a 12% surge and Orlando a 9.3% jump in home prices.
"home prices fell seven and a half percent in Seattle and dropped 10.3 percent in San Francisco at the same time home prices surged 12 Miami and jumped 9.3 percent in Orlando"
Pending
Historically, home buying and moving peak in spring and summer, while sellers are least active in winter.
"data from the last three decades has shown us that no matter what two things always happen people are most likely to buy a home and move throughout spring and summer and sellers are most likely to take their home off the market in the winter"
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The busiest and most expensive housing market months are May through August, with the slowest and least expensive being November through February.
"pricing Trends suggests that the busiest most expensive months occur in May June July into August and the slowest least expensive months occur in November December January and February"
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Failure to reach a debt ceiling limit is predicted to lead to higher interest rates.
"if they can't come up with the new debt ceiling limit first there would be higher interest rates"
Pending
A debt ceiling breach would reduce federal expenditures, leading to economic slowdown and increased unemployment.
"Federal expenditures accounted for 34 percent of gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2023 hitting a debt ceiling would reduce those costs lower economy and cause higher unemployment in the process"
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A US debt default could cause a 23% drop in home sales, with recovery taking over a year, and an additional 1% decline in home prices.
"a default would cause home sales to decline by 23 percent and such a recovery would likely take more than a year to begin to normalize as a result home prices are expected to modestly decline by an extra one percent"
Pending
Home prices have declined by 13.6% in Austin, 9.5% in Seattle, 8.9% in San Francisco, 5.4% in Pittsburgh, and 2.2% in New York since March 2022.
"the top was Austin Texas with a 13.6 decline since March 2022 Seattle Washington at nine and a half percent San Francisco at eight point nine percent Pittsburgh Pennsylvania at 5.4 percent and New York at 2.2 percent"
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Nevada (4.8%), Arizona, California, Utah, Idaho, DC, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts are experiencing the fastest home price declines.
"Nevada is leading the way at 4.8 percent followed by Arizona California Utah Idaho DC Colorado Oregon Washington and Massachusetts"
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Markets like Myrtle Beach (15.4% increase), Fayetteville (14.7% increase), Fort Lauderdale, St. Louis, Hollywood, Boca Raton, Cleveland, and Clearwater (all at least 10% increase) are seeing significant home price growth.
"Myrtle Beach South Carolina is up 15.4 percent Fayetteville North Carolina is up 14.7 percent followed by Fort Lauderdale St Louis Hollywood not California Boca Raton Cleveland and Clearwater which are all at least up 10 percent"
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Zillow predicts a national average home price increase of 1.7% from the current date through March 2024.
"Zillow believes that from now through March of 2024 home prices will actually Rise by another 1.7 percent"
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Knoxville, Savannah, Winston-Salem, Johnson City, and Wilmington are expected to see the largest home price increases, with the Southeast region leading gains.
"Zillow expects some of the biggest home price upticks to incur in markets like Knoxville Tennessee Savannah Georgia Winston-Salem North Carolina Johnson City Tennessee and Wilmington North Carolina where basically they think that the southeast will see the biggest gains"
Pending
San Francisco, Boulder, Denver, Reno, and Las Vegas are anticipated to experience the most significant home price declines over the next year.
"the worst drops throughout the next year are expected to occur throughout markets like San Francisco Boulder Colorado Denver Reno Nevada and Las Vegas"
Pending
Zillow forecasts national home price increases of 3.5% in 2023, 3.4% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026.
"nationally Zillow also expects home prices will increase a total of three and a half percent in 2023 3.4 after that 3.3 after that and 3.2 percent in 2026."
Pending
CoreLogic estimates a 3.7% home price gain for the remainder of the current year.
"CoreLogic also tends to agree with this as well with their estimate coming in at a 3.7 gain for the rest of the year"
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Utah and Boise, Idaho have a 50-75% probability of experiencing a substantial home price decline in the next 12 months.
"they also believe that the most at-risk markets right now are going to be seeing throughout Utah and Boise Idaho with a 50 to 75 likelihood of seeing a substantial decline over the these next 12 months"
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The speaker advises against flipping homes or making short-term bets in the current market, recommending buying a home only if planning to hold it for 7-10 years.
"I personally would not be flipping homes in this market I wouldn't be making any short-term bets nationally if there's not expected to be any sort of Mega crash and time is on your side so that's why I'd only buy a home that you intend to keep for at least seven to ten years"
Pending