ilmscore | The US Has A Massive Spending Problem

The US Has A Massive Spending Problem

Predictions from this Video

Total: 7
Correct: 0
Incorrect: 0
Pending: 7
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Each week of a US government shutdown will reduce GDP by 0.2%.
"Goldman Sachs analysts also estimated that every week the federal government is shut down subtracts about 0.2 percentage points from the gross domestic product."
US Government Shutdown
Pending
A government shutdown could delay crucial economic data (jobs report, CPI), potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
"a government shutdown would delay official statistics like these September jobs report or Consumer Price Index which the Federal Reserve uses to determine whether or not they're going to raise rates which right now is just four more weeks away"
US Government Shutdown Impact on Federal Reserve
Pending
Fitch downgraded the US credit rating outlook from AAA to AA+ on August 1st.
"on August 1st the credit agency Fitch downgraded the US in terms of its future outlook going from What's called the Triple A rating to a double A Plus"
US Credit Rating
Pending
A lower US credit rating will necessitate higher interest rates to attract investors, increasing borrowing costs.
"if the US is considered to be a risk then they must pay higher interest rates to entice investors which means more money going out less money coming in"
US Credit Rating Impact
Pending
Even a short-lived US government shutdown could highlight the weakness of US institutional and governance strength, potentially impacting its relative standing compared to other AAA-rated countries.
"Moody's would not be impacted in a short-lived shutdown would be unlikely to disrupt the economy it would underscore the weakness of U.S institutional and governance strength relative to other AAA rated sovereigns that we have highlighted in recent years"
US Government Shutdown and Credit Rating
Pending
Weaker fiscal policymaking leading to persistent high deficits and interest costs will pressure the US credit rating or outlook, suggesting a future downgrade is likely.
"looking ahead weaker fiscal policy making that leads to persistently High fiscal deficits and higher than expected interest costs would put pressure on the U.S rating or Outlook almost implying that it's a matter of time until it eventually happens anyway"
US Credit Rating Outlook
Pending
Prediction: The US government will pass an emergency bill for 4-6 weeks just before a shutdown, allowing more time for negotiation.
"my belief is that in a last possible minute right before a shutdown would occur they will magically come to an agreement to fund the government using an emergency bill for the next four to six weeks giving them more time to argue back and forth"
US Government Shutdown Resolution Prediction
Pending