It’s Here: The Reverse Housing Crash Of 2024
Published: 2023-12-06
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2023-12-06
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
Wells Fargo predicts a housing recession in the style of the 1980s.
"Wells Fargo believes that we're soon about to enter a 1980 style housing recession"
Pending
Morgan Stanley anticipates improvements in housing prices, rents, and affordability within the next year, suggesting the market has reached its bottom.
"Morgan Stanley think that prices rents and affordability will improve over the next year with the market having just hit a rock bottom"
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Wells Fargo projects home prices to appreciate by 1.8% by the end of 2023, 25% in 2024, and 4.4% in 2025, citing sustained demand and limited supply.
"home prices will continue to appreciate at a slightly slower Pace because of underlying demand and tight Supply Rising 1.8% by the end of the year and 25% in 2024 in 2025 Wells Fargo forecast that home prices Will Rise by 4.4%"
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Morgan Stanley forecasts 30-year mortgage rates to fall to 4% by late 2025, implying a return to near 0% interest rates within two years.
"they anticipate that rates will be as low as 4% by late 2025 meaning according to them we'll be back to almost 0% interest rates in Just 2 years from now"
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Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR predict the 30-year mortgage rate will drop below 7% in the latter half of 2024.
"Fanny May the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all predicts that the 30-year mortgage rate will fall below 7% in the second half of 2024"
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Home sales are expected to be weak in early 2024 but should gain momentum in the latter half of 2024 and continue into 2025.
"we expect home sales to be weak in the first half of next year but activity should pick up in the second second half and further into 2025"
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Home prices reached a new record high in September.
"home prices have managed to hit a brand new record high in September"
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Home prices are predicted to continue appreciating, albeit at a slightly slower rate.
"home prices will continue to appreciate at a slightly slower Pace"
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Wells Fargo forecasts a 4.4% rise in home prices.
"home prices Will Rise by 4.4%"
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Home prices are not expected to decrease significantly.
"home prices are not likely to meaningfully fall"
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Home prices have limited room for further increase as buyers have reached their affordability limits.
"home prices don't really have much room to go any higher because buyers are already maxed out in terms of what they could afford"
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Detroit experienced the highest annual home price growth in the U.S. at 6.7%.
"Detroit had the fastest annual home price growth in the country at 6.7%"
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Las Vegas experienced the weakest home price performance, with a 1.9% decline.
"the weakest was Las Vegas where prices fell by 1.9%"
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The Federal Reserve is expected to start reducing interest rates around mid-2024.
"the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates by mid 2024"
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There is a 52% probability of a 0.25% interest rate reduction by May 2024, followed by four additional cuts by the end of the year.
"there is a 52% chance that we'll see a quarter point reduction by May of 2024 along with four more rate Cuts throughout the end of the year"
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Interest rates are predicted to remain elevated for a longer period than commonly anticipated.
"interest rates are going to stay higher than most people think I think they're going to stay higher for longer than most people think"
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The housing market is expected to normalize over the next few years, but this process may be gradual.
"the housing market should begin to normalize but it might be a very slow process"
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Housing affordability is expected to get better.
"affordability will improve"
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Housing affordability is currently at one of its lowest points historically.
"affordability is near the worst it's ever been"
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For housing affordability to return to previous levels, either mortgage rates must decrease by 4.4 percentage points, median household income must increase by 62%, or home prices must drop by 38%.
"in order for affordability to return back to its previous levels one of three things has to happen either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to Fall by 4.4 percentage points the median household income needs to rise by 62% or home prices need to fall by 38%"
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The number of people listing their homes for sale is decreasing.
"fewer sellers are listing their homes"
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Sellers are typically compelled to sell due to life events such as job changes, lifestyle shifts, divorce, or marriage.
"the homeowners who are selling are often required or forced to sell because of job changes Lifestyle Changes divorce or marriage"
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Homeowners are reluctant to sell and lose their current low mortgage rates.
"sellers don't want to give up their historically low mortgage rates"
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Current buyers have reached their maximum affordability limits.
"buyers are already maxed out in terms of what they could afford"
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Buyers are unable to sustain continuous increases in housing costs.
"buyers just can't keep paying higher and higher and higher in definitely"
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The current housing market is characterized by a balance of low supply and low demand, leading to stable prices.
"we're seeing right now is an almost perfect equilibrium of supply and demand because there is very low Supply but also very low demands so prices really don't have anywhere to go but sideways"
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Investors and institutions hold a record $5.7 trillion in cash, primarily in money market funds.
"investors and Institution have a record 5.7 trillion parked in cash like money market funds"
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Renting is currently more cost-effective than buying in nearly all U.S. markets.
"renting right now is cheaper throughout almost every single Market in the country"
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The speaker plans to rent for the next 2-5 years until the cost of buying and renting becomes more balanced.
"if I'm looking for a place to move in the next 2 to 5 years I'm most likely going to rent a place instead at least until the cost of buying versus renting evens out"
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Currently, there are no real estate investments that appear sensible due to low expected returns relative to market risks.
"I've seen nothing that really makes sense given the risk of the market just from what I'm personally seeing the returns are way too low"
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Commercial real estate values have shown minimal change, especially when compared to the approximately 5% yield offered by treasuries.
"commercial real estate has barely even budged given that treasuries are already yielding about 5%"
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Interest rates are expected to remain elevated for a longer duration than commonly anticipated.
"interest rates are going to stay higher than most people think I think they're going to stay higher for longer than most people think"
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The majority of investors believe the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in mid-2024.
"investors overwhelmingly believe that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in mid 2024"
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