URGENT: Federal Reserve Cancels Recession, Prices Fall, Massive Pivot Ahead
Published: 2024-05-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Published: 2024-05-01
Status:
Available
|
Analyzed
Predictions from this Video
Incorrect: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
The Buffett Indicator at 193% suggests the stock market is overvalued relative to the economy's capacity.
"the current Buffett indicator stands at 193% suggesting that the stock market is trading Beyond what the economy is able to handle"
Pending
Non-financial stocks trading at historic highs (since 1929 and 2001) suggest the S&P 500 could see a -5% annualized return over the next 12 years.
"non-financial stocks are currently trading at levels that we have not seen since 1929 and 2001 because of that he believes that these levels indicate that the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years"
Pending
The current market is described as the most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history.
"my impression is that investors are presently enjoying the double top of the most extreme speculative bubble in US Financial history"
Pending
There are concerns that the market is currently in the early stages of a bubble.
"I certainly think we're at least at the foothills of bubbles"
Pending
Hong Kong has approved and launched its own Bitcoin ETF, trading from April 30th.
"Hong Kong just recently approved their own Bitcoin ETF which has officially begun trading yesterday on April 30th"
Pending
Hong Kong's Bitcoin ETF could potentially add $1 billion in inflows and may spur the creation of more Bitcoin ETFs globally.
"Hong Kong has the potential to add another 1 billion which is small in comparison but it could lead to a lot more Bitcoin ETFs being created around the world"
Pending
Market pricing in a 20% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike within the next 12 months.
"the market now believes there's a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates again in the next 12 months"
Pending
Recent inflation data came in at 3.12%, higher than expected.
"inflation recently came in a lot higher than expected at 3 1.2%"
Pending
Month-over-month inflation has been on an upward trend since October 2023.
"month-over-month inflation has only been increasing since October of 2023"
Pending
Inflation is showing signs of becoming persistently high, remaining around the 3% mark.
"inflation is becoming very sticky in the 3% range"
Pending
Historical data suggests inflation tends to occur in spikes and takes several years to normalize, rather than disappearing after a single event.
"since the 1940s inflation never just occurred once and then disappeared even the White House did an analysis on inflation post World War I and they concluded that in almost every case inflation took several years to normalize from the peak"
Pending
Multiple indicators suggest the market is experiencing a historic bubble.
"every single indicator seems to tell us we're in a historic historic bubble"
Pending
Single-family home prices saw a 7.4% year-over-year increase, with 1.7% of that growth occurring in the last three months.
"single family home prices increased a whopping 7.4% year-over-year with 1.7% of that coming in just the last 3 months"
Pending
The supply of new homes for sale reached 477,000 in the month, a level not seen since 2008.
"the supply of new homes for purchase Rose to 477,000 in the month the highest since 2008"
Pending
New homes are selling for 1.9% less than the previous year, indicating a potential market normalization.
"those homes are actually selling for 1.9% less than a year ago as the market begins to somewhat normalize"
Pending
The rate of home price increase is slowing down year-over-year, attributed to higher mortgage rates.
"even though home prices are higher year-over-year the rate at which they're increasing is beginning to slow down due to higher mortgage rates"
Pending
Home prices have decreased in nine out of the 50 largest metropolitan areas.
"home prices actually fell in nine of the 50 largest metros"
Pending
The housing market is predicted to grow by 1.9% in 2024, a slower pace than usual, which is beneficial for first-time buyers.
"they're forecasting a 1.9% growth over 2024 which is slower than long-term Norms but a welcome slowdown for first-time home buyers"
Pending
Approximately half of baby boomers would be unable to afford their current homes if they were to purchase them today.
"nearly half of all baby boomers couldn't afford their current homes if they were to buy them today"
Pending
Rising insurance claims and replacement costs are forcing some insurance companies to exit certain unprofitable markets.
"Rising insurance claims combined with higher replacement costs is causing some insurance companies to straight up leave certain areas because they're no longer profitable"
Pending
Seven out of the twelve largest insurance groups in California have stopped or limited new homeowner policies in the past year.
"seven of the 12 largest Insurance Groups in California have either paused or restricted new homeowner policies in the last year"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is reducing its quantitative tightening by $35 billion per month.
"they're slowing down their quantitative tightening by $35 billion a month"
Pending
The likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut this year is considered very low, with a rate hike being a possibility.
"the chances of a Fed interest rate cut this year is slimed to none and that an interest rate hike is possible"
Pending
Deutsche Bank's Chief Economist forecasts only one rate cut in December of this year, with modest cuts expected in 2025.
"the chief Economist at Deutsche Bank also now expects only one rate cut this year in December followed by Modest rate Cuts in 2025"
Pending
By the end of 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates to just below 4%.
"Beyond next year he expects the FED to cut rates just below 4% by the end of 2026"
Pending
The most probable scenario is no change in interest rates until inflation subsides, potentially by the end of the year.
"the most likely scenario is that there's no change is being made whatsoever until inflation begins to subside which hopefully is at the end of the year"
Pending
Long-term projections suggest the Federal Reserve may stabilize interest rates around 4%.
"long term it's currently anticipated the Federal Reserve may end up stabilizing rates around the 4% range"
Pending
Annualized GDP growth slowed to 1.6%, which is lower than anticipated.
"GDP recently slowed down to a 1.6% annualized rate which was much lower than expected"
Pending
Inflationary price pressures have increased significantly, with the economy-wide inflation rate rising to 3.1% from 1.9% in the previous quarter.
"price pressures heated up by the most in a year with a measure of inflation in the economy increasing at a 3.1% rate after rising at a 1.9% Pace in the October through December quarter"
Pending
A rate cut is unlikely before the end of the year, and there's a possibility it may not happen at all without significant economic changes.
"a rate cut might not happen until the end of the year at the very soonest and there's also a chance that a rate cut might not happen at all unless something dramatically changes"
Pending
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates unless inflation drops below 2% or an economic breakdown necessitates it for stability.
"I don't think the Federal Reserve is going to lower interest rates unless we see inflation coming in below 2% or unless something breaks within the economy and lowering interest rates is a way to keep stability"
Pending
The Federal Reserve intends to maintain high interest rates as long as the economy permits, lowering them only when their mission is achieved or when absolutely necessary.
"they're going to keep interest rates as high as the economy will allow and then will'll only lower it when they've either accomplished their mission or absolutely have to and there's no other choice but to lower rates"
Pending