ilmscore | What EVERYONE Needs To Do With Their Money (ASAP)

What EVERYONE Needs To Do With Their Money (ASAP)

Predictions from this Video

Total: 14
Correct: 9
Incorrect: 2
Pending: 3
Unrated: 0
Prediction
Topic
Status
If tariffs are imposed, other countries will negotiate quickly to avoid greater economic harm, leading to a market recovery.
"Scenario A is that Trump announced significant tariffs to the rest of the world. They realize he's not bluffing. The market goes down, but other countries quickly try to negotiate a deal, knowing that it's going to hurt them more than it's going to hurt us."
Stock Market Recovery After Tariffs
Incorrect
If a trade war escalates with major partners like China, the outcome is unpredictable and unprecedented.
"Or scenario B is that Trump announces these significant tariffs. The rest of the world doesn't back down and it becomes a stalemate to see who gives in first with the biggest contender being China because they're one of the largest trading partners. And if that happens, it's truly an unprecedented event and we have absolutely no idea what could happen."
Stock Market Recovery After Tariffs
Pending
The stock market dropped 83% over almost 3 years with a nearly 25% unemployment rate following the speculative bubble preceding the Great Depression.
"And that continued until the Great Depression of 1929. Back then, the issue is that banks were lending out so much money to anyone who wanted to borrow for the sake of investing because the stock market just kept going higher. Well, once the market began topping out, people started selling. Panic ensued. People began withdrawing their money from the banks, and the banks couldn't afford to give people their money back because they had loaned it all out for people who wanted to invest. This led to the stock market dropping 83% over almost 3 years with a nearly 25% unemployment rate among Americans."
Stock Market Performance After 1907 Crash
Pending
Following a 50% stock market crash in 1907, the market surged 193% over the subsequent four years.
"Take a look at the year 1907. This is a time when the stock market crashed 50% after the 1906 San Francisco earthquake when heavy insurance payouts caused people to withdraw their gold from banks. Of course, that resulted in people cashing out. The stock market collapsed and fun fact, but that actually led to the stock market and fiscal policies that we have today known as the Federal Reserve. But shortly after that 50% sell-off, the stock market wound up surging 193% over the next four years."
Stock Market Performance After 1907 Crash
Correct
The stock market took almost 20 years to recover from the 1929 crash, with significant gains starting after World War II.
"The market didn't recover for almost 20 years when World War II offered enough work for the 17 million Americans who were unemployed, at which point the stock market started going up another 14 years with a gain of 815%."
Stock Market Recovery After 1929 Crash
Correct
After a 22% drop post-WWII, the stock market experienced 15 years of solid growth with over 935% price increase.
"Although after that, as the war ended, we saw another drop of 22% now that the government was spending less money and some of those veterans re-entered the workforce but couldn't find enough work. But after that sell-off, we saw 15 years of solid growth with prices increasing over 935%."
Stock Market Performance Post-WWII
Correct
After a 40% market drop in 1973-74 due to Nixon removing the dollar from the gold standard, the market recovered to achieve an average gain of 845% over the next 13 years.
"But then in 1973 and 1974, the stock market lost another 40% of its value. This occurred when President Nixon removed the dollar from the gold standard. This caused prices of everything to skyrocket out of control. The Federal Reserve quickly raised interest rates and that caused the entire economy to collapse. But eventually, like clockwork, the market recovered and over the next 13 years, the average gain was 845%."
Stock Market Performance Post-1970s
Correct
Despite a 22% drop on Black Monday in 1987, the market rallied 800% over the subsequent 13 years.
"But then we have another one that a lot of people seem to bring up lately, and that would be Black Monday of 1987 when the stock market lost 22% in a single day. However, that one was very short-lived, and over the next 13 years, the market ended up rallying another 800%."
Stock Market Performance Post-1987 Crash
Correct
After the dot-com bubble collapse caused a 40-60% market drop, the market grew 110% over the following five years.
"Then we have the.com bubble of 2001 which was caused by a frenzy of internet related companies and people buying into them because they thought that the internet was going to be the future. But none of those companies ended up making any money. And when they finally collapsed they took the entire economy down with them with a lot of the market falling between 40 to 60%. But even after that we saw another 5 years of growth with the market increasing 110%"
Stock Market Performance Post-Dot-com Bubble
Correct
Following the 2008 recession's 40-50% market drop, the market experienced a long bull run, with a further 30% drop during COVID-19 followed by a 120% increase over the next 5 years due to government stimulus.
"This caused the stock market to fall as much as 40 to 50%. But then we recovered with one of the most profitable and longest running bull markets in history until co when the markets fell another 30%. To help with that, the government printed a lot of money to keep our economy afloat, and that resulted in a 120% increase over the following 5 years."
Stock Market Performance Post-2008 Recession
Incorrect
The most consistent and effective stock market strategy over the last 120 years has been to buy and hold for 20-30 years.
"For the last 120 years in the stock market, the only consistent strategy that has always worked is to buy and hold on a regular basis with a time frame of 20 to 30 years."
Long-term Stock Market Strategy
Pending
Staying employed, maintaining investment plans, and continuing to buy during market downturns will lead to long-term financial stability.
"In my honest opinion, I think the biggest risk with this market is for people who panic sell, for those who decide not to invest or for those who invest in very risky assets in hope of making a lot of quick money, but instead they can't afford to stomach the losses. In those cases, yeah, you might actually have legitimate problems. But for those who stay employed, keep their plan as usual, and continue buying in despite the lower prices, long-term, history has consistently shown that you're going to be just fine."
Stock Market Opportunity During Recessions
Correct
The 2009 Great Recession presented a unique buying opportunity, with assets like California houses at $70,000 and Ford stock at $2 per share being available at a fraction of their usual value.
"For instance, in a weird way, the 2009 Great Recession was a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity for people to buy into things that they never would have been able to otherwise. Like, I bought full-on houses in California for $70,000. Seriously, houses. Stocks were also trading at a fraction of the value that they are today. And I actually remember buying Ford stock in 2009 for $2 a share."
Buying Opportunity During 2009 Recession
Correct
It is currently a good time to buy into the markets if the investment horizon is several decades and there is consistent income to maintain the investment plan.
"If people ask me today if it's a good time to buy into the markets, I would argue yes, as long as your time frame is the next few decades and you have a consistent income to stick with your plan as usual."
Market Entry Strategy
Pending
Regardless of short-term market fluctuations, the long-term strategy should involve staying employed, managing expenses, building an emergency fund, and consistently dollar-cost averaging.
"And don't get me wrong, I have no idea what's going to happen in the future. Maybe the markets go up another 20% from here, or maybe they go down another 20 to 30%. I have no clue. Just place a strong emphasis on staying employed, keeping your expenses low, beefing up your emergency fund if that's something you need, and then carrying on the usual plan to dollar cost average long-term."
Dollar-Cost Averaging
Correct